Let’s look at some numbers:
4 Carolina 2 24 4 16 1 27
Denver 17 17 1 3 4 13
Carolina opens up as a 4 pt fav. Currently around 5.5. Carolina is better in Off. Rushing rank at 2, and sagarin rank at 1. Denver is better in Off. Passing rank at 17, Def. Rushing rank at 1, def. passing rank at 3 and schedule strength at 13.
I’ve crunched numbers from the past 6 super bowls (2010 No/Indy; 2011 Pitt/GBY; 2012 NYG/NE; 2013 Balt/Sf ; 2014 Sea/Denver; 2015 NE/Sea )
Many times people will say Def. wins championships – In the last 6 super bowls looking at the totals of def. ranks (rushing/passing combined) – It only happened 1 time – 2014 (seattle 2/Vice Denver 8)
If you chop it up separately and was to only look at rushing def. – the team with the best rushing def. only won twice 2014 and 2011)
If you only look at passing def. – 2012 and 2014 were teams that won with the best passing def.
If you were to look at off. Numbers and look at a composite – 3 times teams with the best off. Numbers won – 2010, 2013 and 2015.
If you separated it out and looked at rushing off. – 2010 and 2014
If you just looked at passing off. – 2011, 2013 and 2015.
If you looked at sagarin ranks and scheduled strength combined – the team with the best combined sagarin rank and sched. strength - record for the last 6 games was 3-2-1 (pitt/gby tied at 12)
If you just looked at sagarin rank – It happened twice where the team with the best sagarin rank won the superbowl – 2015 and 2014.
Now what’s interesting – if you just looked at schedule strength – 4 out of the last 6 super bowls – the team with the best schedule strength won the game – 2015 6 vs 14 2014 8 vs 17 2012 2 vs 12 2011 12vs 5)
Based on the last 6 Sb – the underdog has won outright 5 of the last 6. The only exception is where GBy a 2 pt opening fav won out right.
I like Denver + 5.5 but plan to play them on the m/line as well.
Good luck all.