Many people say "trap line". Giving a FG for HFA, this line would be -9 if the Jets were at home. That doesn't sound weird, but there is one thing that has to be mentioned: the market decides the line and the public is still underrating the Jets and Cowboys lines are always inflated because it's "America's team". Remember, Dallas was +6 at Green Bay! Which would have been a pk at home likely.
I am 11-2 on Jets games involving straight plays, teasers and leans posted on here. My two huge write-ups went 2-0. So besides having a bad season at 44-44, my Jets picks/leans have been very consistent, lol.
Matt Cassel isn't going to beat the Jets defense, period. The Jets D ranks 5th in total DVOA and 9th in pass DVOA. They are the best team against the run. The only reason the Cowboys offense was able to score some points with Matt Cassel was when DMC or Joseph Randle had a good game and Cassel had to convert short third downs because of this. A good running game doesn't put you points on the board but it can support a passing game to score. If someone doesn't believe in this last sentence: you can't prove me wrong. It's what Matt Cassel desperately needs - a running game. This won't be the case against the best run defense in the league. To get something vs. the Jets D, you need to be a good or atleast more than solid passing offense. Even if we consider the whole Dallas season, they are still #30 in pass DVOA on offense. When I watch their games, it's disturbing how bad Matt Cassel is with this OL. Dez Bryant isn't at 100% and he is pissed because this season turned out bad for him. Darrelle Revis had a full week of practice and needs a huge statement game here. I will bet he prepared very well this week.
Here are a few key facts:
Without Romo, the Cowboys played against three top-10 defenses in total DVOA (SEA, NE, GB). The Cowboys scored an average of 8.3 PPG.
The Jets played against four bottom-10 offenses in total DVOA (PHI, CLE, IND, TEN). They allowed an average of 10.5 offensive PPG (Eagles scored on a punt).
I am really high on the Cowboys defense, especially going into 2016. But after the Claiborne injury they are pretty thin in their average secondary. Their front seven played very solid but the absence of Rolando McClain will help Chris Ivory having a good game. The Cowboys D ranks just #26 in run DVOA and they are missing a key run defender. This Dallas secondary CANNOT contain Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker who have been one of the best WR-tandems this season. The front seven can cause troubles for Ryan Fitzpatrick but the Jets OL has been playing very well to protect Fitzpatrick. They are giving up like just the 4th fewest sacks per 100 or so. If Greg Hardy lines up on RDE he will have a tough task against D'Brickshaw Ferguson and James Carpenter who could be considered for the Pro Bowl (nobody notices him). The right side of the Jets' OL has been a weak spot at times but I trust Chan Gailey to gameplan around that weakness against a solid Cowboys' pass rush. Overall, Chan Gailey has a big share of how well this offense is playing.
The Cowboys are done and they don't have the QB play to defeat the Jets without special teams/defensive help. And how much are they willing to win this game? This team is built for a Super Bowl run in 2016, they could need this high draft pick to get a QB for the future and an insurance for Tony Romo in 2016. They could also trade that pick and upgrade their secondary.
This is going to be a bloodbath for the Cowboys' offense and the Jets are definitely going to score tonight. This game could turn out ugly for the Cowboys like a 34-6 type of game but I cannot see a much closer game than something like 24-14.
Good luck tonight gentlemen