Andy Reid is the man when coming out of a bye week. 11-5 ATS. And I can only imagine maybe half of those games he was a dog? And how many of those was he a 7pt+ dog??
The Chiefs defense has been quietly progressing each week. But more surprisingly is their offense has seemed to have gotten better since Jamal Charles went down. Currently ranked #9 in offensive DVOA.
Manning has 9 TD passes, so does Alex Smith.
Manning has 13 INT's but Alex Smith has only 2.
Then there's QBR...espn's favorite stat.
Manning #21 at 54.2
Smith #26 at 49.5
But if you look at DYAR rankings...
Manning #31
Smith #16
Only Kaepernick is rated worse than Manning in this category.
I think KC has the personal on defense to stuff the run and rush the passer. I love their secondary which will be well rested and capable of closing on Mannings low velocity passes.
On the Denver side of defense, Aquib Talib is suspended and Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury.
Too many points for a divisional game IMO. In what I see it should be a low scoring game. Lots of punts and field goals. Like the dogie here
Andy Reid is the man when coming out of a bye week. 11-5 ATS. And I can only imagine maybe half of those games he was a dog? And how many of those was he a 7pt+ dog??
The Chiefs defense has been quietly progressing each week. But more surprisingly is their offense has seemed to have gotten better since Jamal Charles went down. Currently ranked #9 in offensive DVOA.
Manning has 9 TD passes, so does Alex Smith.
Manning has 13 INT's but Alex Smith has only 2.
Then there's QBR...espn's favorite stat.
Manning #21 at 54.2
Smith #26 at 49.5
But if you look at DYAR rankings...
Manning #31
Smith #16
Only Kaepernick is rated worse than Manning in this category.
I think KC has the personal on defense to stuff the run and rush the passer. I love their secondary which will be well rested and capable of closing on Mannings low velocity passes.
On the Denver side of defense, Aquib Talib is suspended and Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury.
Too many points for a divisional game IMO. In what I see it should be a low scoring game. Lots of punts and field goals. Like the dogie here
Best let down spot of the year IMO. The Panthers are 8-0 with a comfortable lead in their division. Atlanta and New Orleans lost last week. So did the Packers(a contender for home field adv in the playoffs)
Where do the Panthers find motivation this sunday? Why go to an AFC teams house and play their hearts out? While the Titans on the other hand are in a division that just blew wide open with news of Andrew Luck's kidney injury. They will undoubtedly be playing for something, and under a new coach who they won with last week.
Titans have a good defense, especially on the back end. To relegate this panther team to one dimensional(if they do) will give them a tremendous shot at an outright win.
I think Cam Newton is a great QB no doubt. But I hate his personality. He is a cocky SOB, and I could see complacency setting in here which could lead to mistakes against a decent defense.
Titans haven't faced a QB that runs as well as Cam yet, and this is an X factor.
I can't wait to see how Josh Norman(top 3 CB) matches up against the unrefined Dorial Greene Beckham. This WR is taller, bigger and stronger than any WR in the league. The kid is raw but has a tall ceiling. He's been being used exponentially more each week. I think Norman could have a real tough time covering him(mostly because of his body type)
Best let down spot of the year IMO. The Panthers are 8-0 with a comfortable lead in their division. Atlanta and New Orleans lost last week. So did the Packers(a contender for home field adv in the playoffs)
Where do the Panthers find motivation this sunday? Why go to an AFC teams house and play their hearts out? While the Titans on the other hand are in a division that just blew wide open with news of Andrew Luck's kidney injury. They will undoubtedly be playing for something, and under a new coach who they won with last week.
Titans have a good defense, especially on the back end. To relegate this panther team to one dimensional(if they do) will give them a tremendous shot at an outright win.
I think Cam Newton is a great QB no doubt. But I hate his personality. He is a cocky SOB, and I could see complacency setting in here which could lead to mistakes against a decent defense.
Titans haven't faced a QB that runs as well as Cam yet, and this is an X factor.
I can't wait to see how Josh Norman(top 3 CB) matches up against the unrefined Dorial Greene Beckham. This WR is taller, bigger and stronger than any WR in the league. The kid is raw but has a tall ceiling. He's been being used exponentially more each week. I think Norman could have a real tough time covering him(mostly because of his body type)
Love the chiefs. I've watched all of Denver's games and other than the abysmal defense the packers showed manning has been pretty much awful in every game. The game plan vs manning is not hard yet they were the only team I've seen all year who gave him the middle of the field. If you make him throw deep and to the side lines he A. Needs a perfect pocket, B. Is often inaccurate because he's trying so hard just to get the ball there. This all starts with the premise that you can stop the run, something the packers failed miserably at, and were carved up. The books out on manning , if the chiefs can stop the run they have a very good shot at winning this game
Love the chiefs. I've watched all of Denver's games and other than the abysmal defense the packers showed manning has been pretty much awful in every game. The game plan vs manning is not hard yet they were the only team I've seen all year who gave him the middle of the field. If you make him throw deep and to the side lines he A. Needs a perfect pocket, B. Is often inaccurate because he's trying so hard just to get the ball there. This all starts with the premise that you can stop the run, something the packers failed miserably at, and were carved up. The books out on manning , if the chiefs can stop the run they have a very good shot at winning this game
Agree 100% with Tennessse, but not so sure about KC. IMO, it's KC or no bet for me, but I don't entirely trust them. They looked ABYSMAL for a large chunk of the season. Some of it was the schedule, and losing to Denver and GB is no sin, but to then suck it up against the Bears and Vikings? Two underrated defenses, but just awful performances regardless. Bounced back by just getting past the Steelers with Landey Jones starting before blowing out the hapless Lions.
So I'm not sure on the road in Denver who is coming off a tough loss is a spot I would like to take them. I want to say Denver is playing NE in two weeks, so maybe if they took care of business against Indy, still undefeated, have that swagger from their play thus far coupled with the fact that no matter what happens on the field, Denver finds a way to beat them EVERY time. And looking ahead to NE.......
Denver being short two of their best defensive players definitely helps things though like you said. It's a tough game. KC or no play IMO.
Agree 100% with Tennessse, but not so sure about KC. IMO, it's KC or no bet for me, but I don't entirely trust them. They looked ABYSMAL for a large chunk of the season. Some of it was the schedule, and losing to Denver and GB is no sin, but to then suck it up against the Bears and Vikings? Two underrated defenses, but just awful performances regardless. Bounced back by just getting past the Steelers with Landey Jones starting before blowing out the hapless Lions.
So I'm not sure on the road in Denver who is coming off a tough loss is a spot I would like to take them. I want to say Denver is playing NE in two weeks, so maybe if they took care of business against Indy, still undefeated, have that swagger from their play thus far coupled with the fact that no matter what happens on the field, Denver finds a way to beat them EVERY time. And looking ahead to NE.......
Denver being short two of their best defensive players definitely helps things though like you said. It's a tough game. KC or no play IMO.
Tennessee line bugging me though. I penciled it in at -7 and I think it opened at 4.5 and dropped to 4.
I'm OCD when it comes to lines and perceived value and that was the only game on the card outside of me penciling in TB -2.5 and Dallas opening as a small favorite where I was off more than a point from my lines to my books lines Monday morning. I do like Tennessee, and they were very very close to being an auto bet with a giveaway/takeaway system I do that has worked for me over the years....but when I set -7 and now it's only -4......bugs me!
Tennessee line bugging me though. I penciled it in at -7 and I think it opened at 4.5 and dropped to 4.
I'm OCD when it comes to lines and perceived value and that was the only game on the card outside of me penciling in TB -2.5 and Dallas opening as a small favorite where I was off more than a point from my lines to my books lines Monday morning. I do like Tennessee, and they were very very close to being an auto bet with a giveaway/takeaway system I do that has worked for me over the years....but when I set -7 and now it's only -4......bugs me!
The line is at 5.5 now on the Carolina game. I just can't take he Titans against this team. I took GB last week and won't make that mistake again. Titans play Thursday as well against a div. op but gonna just on the panthers now before it gets to high. The panthers usually take Monday off after wins, coach Rivera would not let them take this Monday off bc "they needed to clean up some stuff" and watch tape for this week. They are not taking this team lightly at all. Also it's in Tennessee I bet there will be 40% panthers fans there as well. BOL
The line is at 5.5 now on the Carolina game. I just can't take he Titans against this team. I took GB last week and won't make that mistake again. Titans play Thursday as well against a div. op but gonna just on the panthers now before it gets to high. The panthers usually take Monday off after wins, coach Rivera would not let them take this Monday off bc "they needed to clean up some stuff" and watch tape for this week. They are not taking this team lightly at all. Also it's in Tennessee I bet there will be 40% panthers fans there as well. BOL
Tennessee line bugging me though. I penciled it in at -7 and I think it opened at 4.5 and dropped to 4.
I'm OCD when it comes to lines and perceived value and that was the only game on the card outside of me penciling in TB -2.5 and Dallas opening as a small favorite where I was off more than a point from my lines to my books lines Monday morning. I do like Tennessee, and they were very very close to being an auto bet with a giveaway/takeaway system I do that has worked for me over the years....but when I set -7 and now it's only -4......bugs me!
I do like the play though.
Good stuff glyde.
The line opened +6. I wanted it right away but was gun shy since my 2 early grabs last week(den-3/atl-4.5) burned in holy hell. I know those plays and this one have nothing to do w/ eachother but that happens to us sometimes as bettors.
My take is early bettors(sharps) like Tenn. Ever since it hit 4 I'm guessing the public or whoever is on carolina at -4,-4.5,-5 hence driving it back up. -4.5,-5,-5.5 are dead numbers. If this spread hits+6.5 I might double up
Tennessee line bugging me though. I penciled it in at -7 and I think it opened at 4.5 and dropped to 4.
I'm OCD when it comes to lines and perceived value and that was the only game on the card outside of me penciling in TB -2.5 and Dallas opening as a small favorite where I was off more than a point from my lines to my books lines Monday morning. I do like Tennessee, and they were very very close to being an auto bet with a giveaway/takeaway system I do that has worked for me over the years....but when I set -7 and now it's only -4......bugs me!
I do like the play though.
Good stuff glyde.
The line opened +6. I wanted it right away but was gun shy since my 2 early grabs last week(den-3/atl-4.5) burned in holy hell. I know those plays and this one have nothing to do w/ eachother but that happens to us sometimes as bettors.
My take is early bettors(sharps) like Tenn. Ever since it hit 4 I'm guessing the public or whoever is on carolina at -4,-4.5,-5 hence driving it back up. -4.5,-5,-5.5 are dead numbers. If this spread hits+6.5 I might double up
The line opened +6. I wanted it right away but was gun shy since my 2 early grabs last week(den-3/atl-4.5) burned in holy hell. I know those plays and this one have nothing to do w/ eachother but that happens to us sometimes as bettors.
My take is early bettors(sharps) like Tenn. Ever since it hit 4 I'm guessing the public or whoever is on carolina at -4,-4.5,-5 hence driving it back up. -4.5,-5,-5.5 are dead numbers. If this spread hits+6.5 I might double up
After all I have a little faith in the ML
Ahh, I didn't know it was +6 early. I start my routine first thing in the morning on Monday and didn't realize that line had already fallen off one key number and gone through another(4.5). I have the exact same mindset as you with key numbers. When I was like 12, a wise old man told me the importance of finagling your way to the right side of of 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5 and how to never sweat that dead area in between 4.5 and 6.
That is STILL so ingrained in my brain to this day 25 years later. Pushing the XP back to 35 yards....I had a huge fear it was gonna lead to a lot of funky scores with guys shanking XP and leading to unnecessary 2pt chasing the rest of the games or coaches just having balls and going for it. And that stuff was gonna throw off that old key number wisdom(3-4-6-7-8-10-11-14). So far, it's had very little effect, but the worst of weather is yet to come!
I'm way off topic. But yea, it opens at 6 and gets pounded to 4 by Monday morning. That's certainly not Joe Schmo "give me 50 on the Titans" money moving that line off key numbers. I agree with u, the Titans have a really good chance to win this SU. Mariotta has to play smart though. Carolina isn't the Saints or Bucs(two defenses marioyra handled like a pro). Overall this season, I would rate him as a solid B overall for his play. He laid a couple eggs, and took a walloping a couple games, but he has outperformed what I personally thought he was gonna do(I was a guy who thought Winston was hands down the class of the draft and Mariotta was most likely gonna be another Tenn 2-3 year mistake at QB). I was dead wrong though. He's already proven that if he's going against a weak defense, he will shred them almost like a veteran. Props to Winston too. He carries himself like a leader, and has been playing great for a true rook.
GL again, man. Appreciate your thoughts and writeups.
The line opened +6. I wanted it right away but was gun shy since my 2 early grabs last week(den-3/atl-4.5) burned in holy hell. I know those plays and this one have nothing to do w/ eachother but that happens to us sometimes as bettors.
My take is early bettors(sharps) like Tenn. Ever since it hit 4 I'm guessing the public or whoever is on carolina at -4,-4.5,-5 hence driving it back up. -4.5,-5,-5.5 are dead numbers. If this spread hits+6.5 I might double up
After all I have a little faith in the ML
Ahh, I didn't know it was +6 early. I start my routine first thing in the morning on Monday and didn't realize that line had already fallen off one key number and gone through another(4.5). I have the exact same mindset as you with key numbers. When I was like 12, a wise old man told me the importance of finagling your way to the right side of of 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5 and how to never sweat that dead area in between 4.5 and 6.
That is STILL so ingrained in my brain to this day 25 years later. Pushing the XP back to 35 yards....I had a huge fear it was gonna lead to a lot of funky scores with guys shanking XP and leading to unnecessary 2pt chasing the rest of the games or coaches just having balls and going for it. And that stuff was gonna throw off that old key number wisdom(3-4-6-7-8-10-11-14). So far, it's had very little effect, but the worst of weather is yet to come!
I'm way off topic. But yea, it opens at 6 and gets pounded to 4 by Monday morning. That's certainly not Joe Schmo "give me 50 on the Titans" money moving that line off key numbers. I agree with u, the Titans have a really good chance to win this SU. Mariotta has to play smart though. Carolina isn't the Saints or Bucs(two defenses marioyra handled like a pro). Overall this season, I would rate him as a solid B overall for his play. He laid a couple eggs, and took a walloping a couple games, but he has outperformed what I personally thought he was gonna do(I was a guy who thought Winston was hands down the class of the draft and Mariotta was most likely gonna be another Tenn 2-3 year mistake at QB). I was dead wrong though. He's already proven that if he's going against a weak defense, he will shred them almost like a veteran. Props to Winston too. He carries himself like a leader, and has been playing great for a true rook.
GL again, man. Appreciate your thoughts and writeups.
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