Just locked up my card for the weekend. I don't see any of these games really moving in my favor with the exception of maybe Cincinnati moving to -3 and even in that case, I would probably be stuck eating -125 or -120 juice and not worth the aggravation.
Final card:
- Houston +6.
- NY Giants +5.5.
- Cincinnati -3.5(-105).
- Arizona -6.5.
- Minnesota +7(-115).
This week I had 8-9 games I was interested in, and worked hard to narrow it down to just 5 plays. SF was on my radar at +9, and might have been a play if it floated up to +10 or 10.5, but +7 just isn't enough for me with the way they looked last two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if SF ran all over them, controlled the trenches and TOP, and kept this one close. TB +3/3.5 was another. Carolina....can't take away from how they have been playing, but pre-season I saw a team with an above average D, but nothing on offense especially after their best WR got hurt. They had a cupcake schedule, Cam playing smart mistake free ball, and they have looked great in beating inferior competition.....something about them going on fhe road and laying more than a FG screamed FAAAADDDEE. Washington +3/3.5. I was really really high on the Eagles coming into this season. It's hard to say that they are disappointments after only 3 games, but they really aren't looking good. Their defense is holding their part of the bargain, but they can't be on the field 38-39 minutes a game and hold up long term. Bradford has been horrible and I'm wondering if Sanchez can't step in and make them dangerous again. But Wash is that power running team that can frustrate them with long drives, and with 30-40mph winds forecast.....should stop the Eagles from their bread and butter.
Hopefully those games I passed on don't cash and my actual bets turn out to be duds........
Houston. Always worries me with going against a Falcon team in their dome, and Quinn has their defense aggressive and flying around, but I still don't think they are that good in the scheme of things. Mallet is slowly getting comfortable and playing a little better. Power running should keep Atlanta away from the ball a bit. I'm thinking the Texan defense can get enough pressure on Ryan so he's not playing pitch and catch with Julio like he's done against other teams. Plus they barely squeaked by an Eagle team who has shown they aren't very good so far this season. Same with Giants. And same with a neutered Cowboy team without their QB and star WR. I can see the Texans hanging around and possibly winning this game.
Cincinnati. I don't think anyone can argue that the Bengals are one of the better balanced teams in the league. Dalton can manage a game and when he's not trying to do too much and handing the game over on turnovers, he can sling the ball too. Bengals O-line should be able to hold off a decent KC pass rush and I think some well timed screens to Hill or Bernard can do a lot of damage early.
NY Giants. The X's and O's are scream Bills, but the Giants really seem to be stopping the run without loading the box as they shut down the run against two top running teams, and another decent overall offensive team. Giants weakness is their secondary downfield, and I'm not sure Tyrod Taylor is the guy to pick them apart down the field. Hats off to TT; guy looks amazing and after all the times I faded that stiff at Virginia tech, I would have never in a million years thought he would be a successful pro QB. If the Giants can shut down their running game rushing only 5, spy on Taylor and stop him from scrambling, and keep the pass game in front of them.....oh and TACKLE! If they do that, I can see them pulling off the upset.
Arizona. A lot of cappers I respect on here are on the Rams, but it seems that almost all the reasoning behind the Rams comes from a place where the Rams were teams they liked coming into the season or "I believe the Rams have a top defense." And I don't see either. The Rams were a 7-8 win team last year, and I saw them as a 7-8 win team this year. Adding Nick Foles wasn't that much of a move IMO. That defense....they have a nice pass rush especially in their dome in obvious passing spots, but if you cram it down their throats and avoid 3rd and 12s.....that defensive line isn't so great and I think teams can run all over them. They are a much better team at home, and tomorrow they are playing in the desert. So they are on the road. Strolling into a team that quietly might be the best team in football. Sure they had 3 cupcake games to start the season, but they went and DEMOLISHED those cupcake games unlike pretty much every other team. Even the Pats who look mighty got backdoored one game and BEGGED to be backdoored another. The Packers needed all 60 minutes to pull out comers against the Bears and Seahawks. So I hate to penalize a Card team who not only did what they were supposed to off a weak schedule, but STOMPED out their opponents in every game. Yes the Rams are their first decent opponent. Yes the Rams defensive line might hold an advantage if the Cards get into a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs early, but if zona can get a lead, make sure Austin doesn't do magic on special teams, and then start running the rock, I don't see the Rams stopping them. Plus Palmer....if he doesn't get hurt, how good was that team last year. 6-0 when he went down. Wound up 5-5 rest of the way with Stanton and Lindley. Palmer stays on the field, they get the 1 seed and I'm not sure they get beat. I think Seattle wound up getting that bye and playing Carolina in second round of playoffs. I'm pretty sure zona crushes the Panthers and then would be one game from the super bowl.
Minnesota. This is a team that worries me. Like almost all dome teams, they are dangerous at home, and scary on the road(just look at this season as an example of the Jekyll and Hyde dome team example). One thing I noticed watching the replay of their last two games....they really really get after the QB in their pass rush. Denvers o-line is suspect. In the past, like pretty much any other QB in the history of football, u attack and get to manning and he's human, but unlike manning as a young man or even into his mid 30s, I'm not entirely sure he can make the throws the used to when his intelligence and pre-snap reads would beat blitzing teams 97% of the time. If they can't get the run game going, and Minny generates the pass rush I think they can generate, can Manning right now as an ATHLETE make the throes needed to beat that blitz over and over. I'm not sure. Denvers defense is incredible so far. Gonna be tough for Minny to do much, but I'm hoping the combo of AP and mobile Teddy B is enough to do some damage, and 2-3 turnovers from the defense should be enough for the cover.