for ppl on seattle and who are experienced cappers my w/u is something u know.
forums are here to help ppl and for those who are on fence, leaning or will play pats this w/u is for u:
after getting hammered by kc chiefs there were many questions as to the pats demise. ppl were overreacting as per normal that they were done. how has this perception changed with some ppl thinking they are a better overall team than seattle- after being dominated by kc? if you consider blowouts as losing by double digits- pats have 2 stinkers and seattle has none at all.
after the pats reeled off 7 str8 victories they lost to a much better nfc team at lambeau field.
unsuccessful gamblers cap on the basis of what they saw in the previous week - which is a huge no-no esp when capping the nfl. in fact most good teams after being demolished usually bounce back the next week in a big way. many of you are taking what you saw with sea's gaffs vs gb last week into this one. i will tell you from a gambling perspective that is a huge no no. each team devises new plays so like the coaches do you should as well. use it as a guide only in terms of the overall body of work and not separately like many of you are doing.
i had to mention the gb game in the first paragraph simply because they should deserve mention of at least being the #2 team in the nfl. if it were gb vs pats it would be gb.
the nfc is still the better conference. in fact i would rank dallas as #3 in the nfl then the pats at #4.
imo we saw the real superbowl game already with sea- gb. u can debate this all u want only my opinion. dont let this stop u from reading on..
going back to what i just mentioned (ppl cap the next game from data from the previous week only and not the whole season) to think seattle will make the same turnovers again in 2 consecutive weeks is ludicrous. after they got wagner and got rid of locker room cancer harvin- this is the seattle team u should cap on and not the miscues they did 2 wks ago.
consider last week for seattle to be a huge anomaly in terms of russ' turnovers and baldwin's special team and kearse's receiving gaffs. after getting wagner after the kc loss. the seahawks are undefeated by comfy margins minus the last game. so consider that their bad game (as per above good teams bounce back from poor performances) and you have 1 handicapping method in seattle's favor.
i could go on and on breaking this one down indepth but i will bring up this one point that should be mentioned... u really think pats with a 13th ranked defense (which btw was ratted less than denver's d ly and also dont forget den had an nfl breaking offensive record which also ranks above the pats) is going to stop both lynch and wilson on the ground? fuggetaboutit!!!.
will illustrate this best with the very lowly jets who the pats have the fortune of playing 2x in one year = 2 auto wins.
but really jets shoulda had one if not both of them.
pats know they could stack the box much like many of u are talking about how they are going to stop lynch..why then did the jets have over 100 yds on the ground including over 200 in the first game knowing that is all they have to do to beat the useless jets qbs?
note the scores of both those games u will see that they shoulda lost at least one to one of the lowest teams on earth- nfl wise ne ways.
the fact is pats have trouble with running teams which seattle is (60%) of their plays are run plays...and they struggle against teams with top defenses (note 2 sb losses to the giants as -3.5 and -12.5 favs in 2008)
is this pats team better than the record setting 2008 team? no they are not
is seattle a better defensive team than those nyg yes they are overall.
enough of all this. let me tell u where it really matters a gambling story.
let's go back to 2003 when the awesomely gifted raiders with record setting rich gannon were -3.5 favs to the qb less tb bucs with no name qb brad johnson.
like many of u who are on pats for this sunday..my thinking like urs is..how can a team without a qb win against a team that can score like the raiders. after my money went to the trash after the bucs without a qb scored 48pts i realized that sexy offenses dont win but defense does.
sadly though i didnt learn my lesson until this second time around when the first was a lousy trent dilfer beating the nygs.
after that 2003 sb i became a much better nfl capper and vowed never to take the sexy offensive team ever again if they play a team that has a top defense.
i cashed nicely on 2 sb of note both of which on nyg over pats on both ocasions. in 2008 where i also had them +580 or so ml that was a huge win for me and the +150 ml in 2012 was nice too.
football is traditionally a simple game. the team that runs well with the ball in this case seattle is far superior will win you games. from the smash mouth approach if you include a great defense that will for sure win you games. seattle wins over pats in both these categories.
last i checked seattle is also #1 run team and in the top 7 of overall offense.
dont make the mistake of capping what u just saw last week against the real number 2 team in the league packers.
seahawks played their worst game this year last week. this week i regard this handicapping wise as their bounce back game.
seattle has better weapons to move the ball than both those ravens and the bucs that won superbowls by lopsided margins
sea is #1 ov defense just like tb and ravens were with much inferior qbs.
dont make the same mistakes i did in year 2001 and year 2003 and lose by playing the 'sexy offensive team' or perceived better offense.
as the cliche goes 'defense wins championships'
take advice from someone who has learned from losing and correcting mistakes.
if you are betting
make sure it goes on the hawks for the 2nd consecutive year as champs
adding sea tm ttl 23.5 over