2-0 last week (baltimore buffalo) and on a ridiculous 15-1 run.
tough card this week imo and only 1 play i really like
kansas city -10 (-110)
im 6-0 betting kansas city games they have been my cash cow this year and i think this week they cover this big spread.
3 weeks ago i had my 2nd biggest bet of the season on the raiders vs kc when i think i described it as a situational bettors wet dream. last primetime game for the winless oakland team the chiefs with denver on deck etc etc and the game panned out exactly as i thought. but now i think the tables have turned and its the chiefs in the great spot.
first of all we have got the obvious revenge factor. kc were embarrased on primetime tv losing to a divisional rival who were also winlesss at the time so they will be ultra motivated/pis sed off to lay the hammer down on sunday.
secondly this is last chance saloon for the chiefs lose here and they are done for the season win here and they are still well in the play off hunt, and they get the raiders coming off their biggest performance of the season winning the bay area derby against san fran. they left it all on the table in that game and i see no way they bring that sort of effort on back to back weeks (indeed after that kc win where they were all in they lost 52-0 the next week against the rams !!
thirdly there is massive line value here with the chiefs. in that first meeting the public were falling over themselves to take -7 and -7.5 with kc. that equates to a -13/-13.5 line here yet we are only asked to lay 10 due probably to last weeks results. im never a fan of laying double digits in the nfl (biggest chalk ive layed all season is 6) but its fully warranted here as we get a hungry desperate team playing a fat and happy opponent.
wanted to tease indy down to -1 with something but struggling to find a second selection so will just stick with one play this week.
2-0 last week (baltimore buffalo) and on a ridiculous 15-1 run.
tough card this week imo and only 1 play i really like
kansas city -10 (-110)
im 6-0 betting kansas city games they have been my cash cow this year and i think this week they cover this big spread.
3 weeks ago i had my 2nd biggest bet of the season on the raiders vs kc when i think i described it as a situational bettors wet dream. last primetime game for the winless oakland team the chiefs with denver on deck etc etc and the game panned out exactly as i thought. but now i think the tables have turned and its the chiefs in the great spot.
first of all we have got the obvious revenge factor. kc were embarrased on primetime tv losing to a divisional rival who were also winlesss at the time so they will be ultra motivated/pis sed off to lay the hammer down on sunday.
secondly this is last chance saloon for the chiefs lose here and they are done for the season win here and they are still well in the play off hunt, and they get the raiders coming off their biggest performance of the season winning the bay area derby against san fran. they left it all on the table in that game and i see no way they bring that sort of effort on back to back weeks (indeed after that kc win where they were all in they lost 52-0 the next week against the rams !!
thirdly there is massive line value here with the chiefs. in that first meeting the public were falling over themselves to take -7 and -7.5 with kc. that equates to a -13/-13.5 line here yet we are only asked to lay 10 due probably to last weeks results. im never a fan of laying double digits in the nfl (biggest chalk ive layed all season is 6) but its fully warranted here as we get a hungry desperate team playing a fat and happy opponent.
wanted to tease indy down to -1 with something but struggling to find a second selection so will just stick with one play this week.
the line looks ridiculous with arizona getting so many points but i think drew stanton might be the deer in the headlights tonight. saying that theres no way in hell im laying 6pts with the rams so its an easy pass for me
the line looks ridiculous with arizona getting so many points but i think drew stanton might be the deer in the headlights tonight. saying that theres no way in hell im laying 6pts with the rams so its an easy pass for me
Topshow, you've had a tremendous run. Amazing work.
But I think you may be off on KC. Yes, they want revenge. But they couldn't even play Denver close with huge emotion for Eric Berry that night. Then with their season on the line, they couldn't beat a handicapped Cardinals team.
This week they may beat the Raiders. It's possible. I am not projecting a Raiders win, but I see a close game in the 4th quarter and a lot of pressure on a fragile KC team to pull out the win.
I'll be on the Raiders + 10.5. And to your point on about the Colts (and a 2nd play) - I can see the Texans playing a tight game in Indy (If Andre Johnson plays).
Topshow, you've had a tremendous run. Amazing work.
But I think you may be off on KC. Yes, they want revenge. But they couldn't even play Denver close with huge emotion for Eric Berry that night. Then with their season on the line, they couldn't beat a handicapped Cardinals team.
This week they may beat the Raiders. It's possible. I am not projecting a Raiders win, but I see a close game in the 4th quarter and a lot of pressure on a fragile KC team to pull out the win.
I'll be on the Raiders + 10.5. And to your point on about the Colts (and a 2nd play) - I can see the Texans playing a tight game in Indy (If Andre Johnson plays).
i hear you invegas but losing to denver and arizona when they needed to win is one thing (they are both top 8 teams imo) losing or winning a close game against a terrible raiders team is another. but its good to hear an opposite view so thanks for that. my ONLY fear is laying double digits as its not something im comfortable with doing in the nfl but i really could see a 20+ pts victory here.
i hear you invegas but losing to denver and arizona when they needed to win is one thing (they are both top 8 teams imo) losing or winning a close game against a terrible raiders team is another. but its good to hear an opposite view so thanks for that. my ONLY fear is laying double digits as its not something im comfortable with doing in the nfl but i really could see a 20+ pts victory here.
if vontae davis is not playing...houston can easily cover that spread. they just need to control the clock and have deandre/andre move the chains every now and then...and i dont think -11.5 pts is good 'value'
if vontae davis is not playing...houston can easily cover that spread. they just need to control the clock and have deandre/andre move the chains every now and then...and i dont think -11.5 pts is good 'value'
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