Raiders (2-11) @ Chiefs (7-6)—Since 2007, Chiefs are 1-10 as a divisional home favorite. KC lost last three games overall, scoring 16.7 ppg; they’re 14-56 (25%) on 3rd down over last five games. Raiders are 3-2-1 as road underdogs, with one loss by more than 10 points. Chiefs are 3-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 27-27-14-4 points, with losses to Titans/Broncos. Oakland won two of last three games, losing 52-0 in between two wins, first of which was 24-20 (+7) home win over Chiefs three weeks ago, when Raiders ran for 179 yards, converted 8-16 on 3rd down on Thursday night home game that was similar scenario to this week’s Card-Ram game. Raiders won six of last nine against Chiefs, winning six of last seven visits here; they’re Seven of last nine Chief games stayed under the total.
Jaguars (2-11) @ Ravens (8-5)—Since ’03, Baltimore is 29-14-1 as non-divisional home favorite, 3-1 this year. Ravens won three of last four games, running for 168.5 ypg in wins by 14-7-15 points, with 34-33 loss to Chargers when they lost in last minute. Jax lost five of last six games, scoring two defensive TDs in only win (trailed 21-3 at half); they’re 1-4-1 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 17-31-19-2-10-20 points, with last two losses their only two games on carpet this year (0-1-1 vs spread, 4-7-1 last 12). Home side won last five series games, with Baltimore winning seven of last nine after losing eight in row to Jags. Jax averaged under 4.5 ypa in each of last three games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 6-6. Six of last nine Jaguar games stayed under the total.
Steelers (8-5) @ Falcons (5-8)—AFC North teams (11-2-1) have treated NFC South like a piñata this year, but Steelers have both losses and at home/ Pitt would be in playoffs if they started now after gaining 543 yards in 42-21 win at Cincy last week; Steelers are 4-2 on road, 1-2 on carpet- they’re 29-54 on third down in last four games. Short week for Falcons after they fought back from 31-7 halftime deficit to lose/cover 43-37 at Lambeau Monday night; health of star WR Jones (hip) obviously a big Atlanta concern. Falcons covered five of last six games, but are 1-8 SU in non-divisional games. Last five series games were decided by 4 or less points in OT, with last three going OT; Steelers won six of eight visits here, are 12-2-1 overall in last 15 series games. Six of last seven Steeler games, last three Atlanta games went over total.
Texans (7-6) @ Colts (9-4)—Indy can clinch division here; wary of teams off sloppy (3+ turnovers) wins, which is what Colts did in Cleveland last week, turning ball over four times but scoring in last 2:00 of each half, including game-winning TD with 0:32 left. Colts turned ball over 10 times (-5) in last three games, two of which were at home; they’re 21-4 in this series, 12-0 here, with three of last four home wins vs Texans by 12+ points. Houston is 3-1 since its bye; they’ve won last three road games, are 2-1 as road dogs (were favored in 4 of first 7 on road), 0-2 on carpet, losing by 13 at Giants, 3 in OT at Dallas. Indy (-2.5) won first meeting 33-28 in Houston, running 30 more plays (82-52) than Texans. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year, 3-0 at home. Three of last four Houston games stayed under total.
Bengals (8-4-1) @ Browns (7-6)—Manziel gets first NFL start here for Browns squad that lost three of last four games, scoring five TDs on last 50 drives; they lost at home last week, even with defense scoring two TDs. Cleveland won three of last four series games, winning 24-3 (+6) at Cincy in Week 10 Thursday game; Browns ran for 170 yards, had 368-165 edge in yardage over Jekyll/Hyde Bengal squad that gave up 543 yards in home loss to Steelers last week, after winning previous three games, all on road, giving up 71.3 rushing ypg. Last time Browns swept Cincinnati was 2002; they’re 4-3 at home, but lost last two, to Texans/Colts. Underdogs covered six of eight AFC North games this year. Eight of last nine Cleveland games, four of last five Bengal games stayed under the total.
Dolphins (7-6) @ Patriots (10-3)—Miami offense is fading, scoring 16-13 points in last two games, running for just 63 yards vs Ngata-less Ravens last week. Dolphins are 3-2-1 as underdogs this year, 2-2 on road; they’re 2-4 as divisional road dogs under Philbin. NE is home after splitting pair of grass games at GB/SD, practicing all week in SoCal last week; Patriots covered four of last five home games, scoring 42.7 ppg in last three home tilts. Pats lost 33-20 (-4) to Miami in season opener, second straight loss to Dolphins after seven wins; Fish lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Since 2005, NE is just 9-12 vs spread as divisional home favorites, 0-1 this year. Home teams are 5-3 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Seven of last eight Dolphin games, last three New England games stayed under the total.