I've decided to start tracking bets that I feel are sucker bets just based on the % of the public on a team and how the line reacts to that. On Wednesday I posted in another thread that I thought Pittsburgh was a sucker bet on Thursday night based on the public % and the line reaction.
Quote Originally Posted by DrHuckleberry:
DegenCurtis21 - I like your write up and I think that you are on to something. From what I can tell 74% of the public is on Pittsburgh at the moment and the line has either stayed at +2.5 or moved to +3 - which tells me that Vegas is begging the public to take Pittsburgh, Same sort of line last week with Atlanta and NO - the line sat on +3 for Atlanta and never moved despite the public betting on NO at 75% or more. Pittsburgh looks like a sucker bet to me
I find that watching for specific line movements or lack there of can give some insight as to which team the oddsmakers think will win. There are always a few games each week that fall into this category and I would consider sucker bets - usually bets with a very high % of the public on a team where the line remains on a key number or it moves in favor of that team (reverse movement).
Therefore I have decided to track the bets that I feel fall into this category. Baltimore -2.5 did.
I would also say that in week 2 that there are three other games that show these signs. The sucker bets would be Denver, Green Bay and San Fran. - which are all teams that at first glance I liked this week. However, based on the lines I believe that:
I've decided to start tracking bets that I feel are sucker bets just based on the % of the public on a team and how the line reacts to that. On Wednesday I posted in another thread that I thought Pittsburgh was a sucker bet on Thursday night based on the public % and the line reaction.
Quote Originally Posted by DrHuckleberry:
DegenCurtis21 - I like your write up and I think that you are on to something. From what I can tell 74% of the public is on Pittsburgh at the moment and the line has either stayed at +2.5 or moved to +3 - which tells me that Vegas is begging the public to take Pittsburgh, Same sort of line last week with Atlanta and NO - the line sat on +3 for Atlanta and never moved despite the public betting on NO at 75% or more. Pittsburgh looks like a sucker bet to me
I find that watching for specific line movements or lack there of can give some insight as to which team the oddsmakers think will win. There are always a few games each week that fall into this category and I would consider sucker bets - usually bets with a very high % of the public on a team where the line remains on a key number or it moves in favor of that team (reverse movement).
Therefore I have decided to track the bets that I feel fall into this category. Baltimore -2.5 did.
I would also say that in week 2 that there are three other games that show these signs. The sucker bets would be Denver, Green Bay and San Fran. - which are all teams that at first glance I liked this week. However, based on the lines I believe that:
Well that would have been a nice parlay - So I am not really good at picking or handicapping games, but I think that Vegas is real good at it. The only team that I would have picked is Baltimore and I would have gone against the rest, but this theory went 4-0 in week 2 and it would have picked Atlanta over New Orleans in week 1, but I didn't believe it so no post. After watching Chicago over San Fran. I a starting to believe that the NFL and WWE have a whole lot in common except that Vegas makes real $$ on the NFL. I'll keep looking for games that fall into this category each week and posting what I believe.
Well that would have been a nice parlay - So I am not really good at picking or handicapping games, but I think that Vegas is real good at it. The only team that I would have picked is Baltimore and I would have gone against the rest, but this theory went 4-0 in week 2 and it would have picked Atlanta over New Orleans in week 1, but I didn't believe it so no post. After watching Chicago over San Fran. I a starting to believe that the NFL and WWE have a whole lot in common except that Vegas makes real $$ on the NFL. I'll keep looking for games that fall into this category each week and posting what I believe.
I find that watching for specific line movements or lack there of can give some insight as to which team the oddsmakers think will win. There are always a few games each week that fall into this category and I would consider sucker bets - usually bets with a very high % of the public on a team where the line remains on a key number or it moves in favor of that team (reverse movement).
Therefore I have decided to track the bets that I feel fall into this category. Baltimore -2.5 did.
I would also say that in week 2 that there are three other games that show these signs. The sucker bets would be Denver, Green Bay and San Fran. - which are all teams that at first glance I liked this week. However, based on the lines I believe that:
I find that watching for specific line movements or lack there of can give some insight as to which team the oddsmakers think will win. There are always a few games each week that fall into this category and I would consider sucker bets - usually bets with a very high % of the public on a team where the line remains on a key number or it moves in favor of that team (reverse movement).
Therefore I have decided to track the bets that I feel fall into this category. Baltimore -2.5 did.
I would also say that in week 2 that there are three other games that show these signs. The sucker bets would be Denver, Green Bay and San Fran. - which are all teams that at first glance I liked this week. However, based on the lines I believe that:
Let's see if you can replicate your success on week 3
The only problem I see with your theory is how are you tracking the public %? Covers only gives you an idea of what it's members are playing and that is likely not always a true reflection / a good sample of the overall public money ALWAYS
Let's see if you can replicate your success on week 3
The only problem I see with your theory is how are you tracking the public %? Covers only gives you an idea of what it's members are playing and that is likely not always a true reflection / a good sample of the overall public money ALWAYS
I'm not using covers for the public money, or the line movement - if the info I am using proves to be right, then my theory works. I believe that Vegas is set up to make $$ (given) if they simply take 50% of the bets on each team and move the line accordingly then they will make money on the juice. However, they are much better cappers than anybody - so if there is evidence throughout 4 or 5 days that they are taking a certain team then it is likely that they know more than I do. I don't gamble, but I am a well educated person that is intrigued by NFL odds and how Vegas can be so good at making great cappers go 50-60% at best. There has to be a trend somewhere - even if certain games have a predetermined outcome. My quest has been to figure it out. I am still not confident that I have, but so far I am better with this theory than anything else.
I'm not using covers for the public money, or the line movement - if the info I am using proves to be right, then my theory works. I believe that Vegas is set up to make $$ (given) if they simply take 50% of the bets on each team and move the line accordingly then they will make money on the juice. However, they are much better cappers than anybody - so if there is evidence throughout 4 or 5 days that they are taking a certain team then it is likely that they know more than I do. I don't gamble, but I am a well educated person that is intrigued by NFL odds and how Vegas can be so good at making great cappers go 50-60% at best. There has to be a trend somewhere - even if certain games have a predetermined outcome. My quest has been to figure it out. I am still not confident that I have, but so far I am better with this theory than anything else.
Interesting that everyone and their white horse was on SF. More interesting that some shops offered it at 6.5 for awhile before kickoff. Why? Pubic was more than willing to lay the 7 or 7.5. Makes you wonder sometime.
Interesting that everyone and their white horse was on SF. More interesting that some shops offered it at 6.5 for awhile before kickoff. Why? Pubic was more than willing to lay the 7 or 7.5. Makes you wonder sometime.
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