Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)—If you own the Texans, you order the coach to lose this game to guarantee #1 pick in draft, right? Houston (-7.5) beat Titans 30-24 in OT in Week 2, were 2-0, haven’t won since; they outrushed Tennessee 172-119, outgained them by 204 yards, surviving a -2 turnover ratio, but now they’re a pathetic 2-12-1 vs spread, 1-5-1 on road, losing away games by 21-31-1-3-7-22 points. Coach got fired, QB got benched, then got his job back when backup got hurt. Texans won three of last four visits here; season series was split four of last five years. Titans are 2-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 3-2-1 when favored this year, 1-1-1 at home- they’ve lost last five home games after winning first two. Houston has two takeaways (-8) in its last six games; Titans have two (-8) in last four games. AFC South home teams are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 when favored. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Titan games, 5-3 in last eight Texan tilts.
Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pitt needs lot of help but is still alive/kicking for playoff spot; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games after 0-4 start, scoring 30-38 points last two weeks, stopping Packers on goal line in last minute last week- they scored TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, and covered six of last seven, but were underdogs in five of six covers. Pitt is 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 3-13-10-10 points. Cleveland is 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since its Week 10 bye, losing last three road games by 21-1-11 points; they’re 3-4 as road underdogs, with only road win in Week 3 at Metrodome when Hoyer was QB. Browns lost last nine visits here, with eight of nine by 11+ points; they’re 3-24 in last 27 series games. Steelers were -11 in turnovers the first four weeks, are +7 since; they’ve scored 27+ points in five of last six games. AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 when favored. Six of last eight Cleveland games, last four Steeler games went over total.
Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)—Miserable season ends for Redskins, who lost last seven games, last two by single point each; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 18-15-24-7-8-1 points, winning only 24-14 at Oakland (-3) in Week 4. Not only that, but Rams have their #1 pick in April. Giants are 6-3 in last nine games after 0-6 start; they’re 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-3 at home, with home wins by 16-4-14 points- four teams that beat them in Swamp are all still alive for playoffs. Skins’ two TDs last week were on short fields (33-43 yards); they’ve lost four of last five visits to Swamp, and lost 24-17 (+1) at home to Giants four weeks ago. Big Blue ran ball 35 times for 66 yards in last two games combined, scoring one TD on 26 drives, with 12 three/outs; only a pick-6 in last 5:00 last week got them to OT against generous Lions at Ford Field. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 4-4 if favored. Three of last four Giant games, four of last six Redskin games stayed under the total.
Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)—Baltimore needs this game to make playoffs, but Cincy is just third team ever (’52 Lions/’00 Rams) to score 40+ points in four straight home games in same year; they’re 7-0 SU/ATS at home, winning at home by average score of 34-17, beating Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben/Luck. Five of their seven home wins are by 10+ points. Bengals are this good despite having advantage in field position in only four of 15 games. Ravens had 4-game win streak snuffed out by Patriots last week; they’ve scored only one TD on 24 drives in last two games, as Flacco’s bum left knee, has made him immobile in pocket. Bengals (+1) lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 10, with 134 Cincy penalty yards offsetting 364-189 edge in total yardage; series has been swept five of last eight years. Ravens lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-5-6 points; AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 if favored. Three of last four Raven games, four of last five Bengal games went over the total.
Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)—Indy is playing in playoffs next week unless Patriots stumble against Buffalo and Colts get bye; Indy played very good defense last two weeks, allowing one TD on 24 drives with 12 three/outs in last two games- they hammered Jax 37-3 (-9) back in Week 4, with four sacks, three takeaways and a defensive TD, but Jags won last two visits here, 17-3/22-17 in season series that split in six of last 11 years. Jaguars are 4-3 in second half of season after 0-8 start; their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. Jax covered its last four road games, won SU in last three, with only loss 35-19 at Denver (+27). Bradley has done good job keeping team playing hard, but they’ve also given up 190 rushing yards/game in last two weeks, a red flag. Colts are 5-2 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 4-6-6-8-22 points, with losses to Dolphins/Rams. AFC South home favorites are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Jaguar games, 1-3 in last four Indy games.
Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)—If you own the Texans, you order the coach to lose this game to guarantee #1 pick in draft, right? Houston (-7.5) beat Titans 30-24 in OT in Week 2, were 2-0, haven’t won since; they outrushed Tennessee 172-119, outgained them by 204 yards, surviving a -2 turnover ratio, but now they’re a pathetic 2-12-1 vs spread, 1-5-1 on road, losing away games by 21-31-1-3-7-22 points. Coach got fired, QB got benched, then got his job back when backup got hurt. Texans won three of last four visits here; season series was split four of last five years. Titans are 2-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 3-2-1 when favored this year, 1-1-1 at home- they’ve lost last five home games after winning first two. Houston has two takeaways (-8) in its last six games; Titans have two (-8) in last four games. AFC South home teams are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 when favored. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Titan games, 5-3 in last eight Texan tilts.
Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pitt needs lot of help but is still alive/kicking for playoff spot; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games after 0-4 start, scoring 30-38 points last two weeks, stopping Packers on goal line in last minute last week- they scored TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, and covered six of last seven, but were underdogs in five of six covers. Pitt is 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 3-13-10-10 points. Cleveland is 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since its Week 10 bye, losing last three road games by 21-1-11 points; they’re 3-4 as road underdogs, with only road win in Week 3 at Metrodome when Hoyer was QB. Browns lost last nine visits here, with eight of nine by 11+ points; they’re 3-24 in last 27 series games. Steelers were -11 in turnovers the first four weeks, are +7 since; they’ve scored 27+ points in five of last six games. AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 when favored. Six of last eight Cleveland games, last four Steeler games went over total.
Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)—Miserable season ends for Redskins, who lost last seven games, last two by single point each; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 18-15-24-7-8-1 points, winning only 24-14 at Oakland (-3) in Week 4. Not only that, but Rams have their #1 pick in April. Giants are 6-3 in last nine games after 0-6 start; they’re 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-3 at home, with home wins by 16-4-14 points- four teams that beat them in Swamp are all still alive for playoffs. Skins’ two TDs last week were on short fields (33-43 yards); they’ve lost four of last five visits to Swamp, and lost 24-17 (+1) at home to Giants four weeks ago. Big Blue ran ball 35 times for 66 yards in last two games combined, scoring one TD on 26 drives, with 12 three/outs; only a pick-6 in last 5:00 last week got them to OT against generous Lions at Ford Field. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 4-4 if favored. Three of last four Giant games, four of last six Redskin games stayed under the total.
Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)—Baltimore needs this game to make playoffs, but Cincy is just third team ever (’52 Lions/’00 Rams) to score 40+ points in four straight home games in same year; they’re 7-0 SU/ATS at home, winning at home by average score of 34-17, beating Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben/Luck. Five of their seven home wins are by 10+ points. Bengals are this good despite having advantage in field position in only four of 15 games. Ravens had 4-game win streak snuffed out by Patriots last week; they’ve scored only one TD on 24 drives in last two games, as Flacco’s bum left knee, has made him immobile in pocket. Bengals (+1) lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 10, with 134 Cincy penalty yards offsetting 364-189 edge in total yardage; series has been swept five of last eight years. Ravens lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-5-6 points; AFC North home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games, 5-2 if favored. Three of last four Raven games, four of last five Bengal games went over the total.
Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)—Indy is playing in playoffs next week unless Patriots stumble against Buffalo and Colts get bye; Indy played very good defense last two weeks, allowing one TD on 24 drives with 12 three/outs in last two games- they hammered Jax 37-3 (-9) back in Week 4, with four sacks, three takeaways and a defensive TD, but Jags won last two visits here, 17-3/22-17 in season series that split in six of last 11 years. Jaguars are 4-3 in second half of season after 0-8 start; their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. Jax covered its last four road games, won SU in last three, with only loss 35-19 at Denver (+27). Bradley has done good job keeping team playing hard, but they’ve also given up 190 rushing yards/game in last two weeks, a red flag. Colts are 5-2 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 4-6-6-8-22 points, with losses to Dolphins/Rams. AFC South home favorites are 4-5-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Jaguar games, 1-3 in last four Indy games.
Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)—Orton starts at QB for Dallas, with a 41-year old Algebra teacher (Kitna) backing him up, so spread swung 8 points with Romo expected to be sidelined with lumbar disk problem. Dallas allowed 21+ points in each of last eight games since pummeling Eagles 17-3 (+3) in Week 7, KO’ing Foles with concussion while outgaining Iggles 368-278 in game that was 3-0 Pokes at half. Philly won six of last seven games, crushing Bears 54-11 last week in meaningless game for them, huge game for Chicago; Eagles are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites; this is only their third game on carpet all year- they won 36-21 (+2.5) at Swamp in Week 5, then got pounded 48-30 at Metrodome (-6) two weeks ago. Dallas allowed 35 ppg over last three games; with LB Lee out, can they stand up vs Eagle running attack? Orton has NFL experience (35-34 record in 69 career starts) so Cowboys aren’t destitute here, but tough spot for Orton to step into. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 1-1 if home dogs. Seven of last eight Dallas games, last three Philly games went over total.
NY Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)—Road team won six of last eight series games; Jets won five of last seven visits here, but lost 23-3 (-1.5) at home to Miami four weeks ago, outgained 453-177 with a -2 turnover ratio. Fish had 16-yard advantage in field position, held Jets to 2.4 ypa. Miami needs a win and help to make playoffs after laying egg in Buffalo last week; all seven of their home games decided by 4 or less points, with Fish 4-3 SU, 1-2 as home favorites. Bills said they had Taneyhill’s snap counts last week, leading to shutout win that ended Dolphins’ 3-game win streak. Jets turned ball over only three times in last three games; they’re +3 in turnovers in their seven wins, -20 in eight losses. Miami has one takeaway in six of its last seven games, with first Jet game (three TAs) the 7th game. This is only third game on grass this year for Jets; they lost 38-13 (+3.5) at Tennessee in Week 4, lost 30-20 (+10) at Carolina two weeks ago. AFC North home favorites are 4-4 against spread in divisional games. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Jet games.
Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)—Seems like long time ago, but Detroit (-5) beat Vikings 34-24 on Opening Day, passing for 352 yards with four takeaways (+2) that helped them to 15-yard advantage in field position, but roof fell in on both teams since, with Detroit -18 in turnovers over its last eight games. Lions lost five of last six weeks, with only win over Rodgers-less Packers on Thanksgiving; they’re 3-4 on road, with all seven games on natural grass. Detroit allowed only one offensive TD on 24 drives in last two games, but offense has been turning ball over so much, they’ve self-destructed, and now a coaching change looms. Lions are 1-14 in last 15 visits to Metrodome, which closes down after this game; four of their last five losses here were by 10+ points. Vikings got crushed in Cincinnati last week, after spanking Eagles here week before; they won last three home games, averaging 35 ppg. NFC North favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 5-3-1 at home. 13 of 15 Viking games this season went over the total.
Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)—NE needs win to keep bye next week, which is huge; they snuck past Bills 23-21 (-9.5) in season opener, outgaining Bills by 145 yards, converting 11-20 on 3rd down, but scoring only two TDs on five red zone drives, with Bills scoring a long defensive TD to stay close. Patriots won 19 of last 20 series games including last 12 played here, but three of last four in Foxboro were decided by 8 or less points- they’re 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 3-20-3-10-24-3-1 point. Misleading score last week; Pats won 41-7, but scored two defensive TDs late and had only one TD drive of more than 53 yards. Buffalo won last two games, blanking Miami last week; they’re 1-5 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 7-13-18-13-21 points, with wins at Miami/Jaguars. Bills ran ball for 198/203 yards in last two games and held six of last seven opponents under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, but this is it for them, while Pats sharpening up for postseason. Five of seven Buffalo road games, four of last five Patriot games went over total.Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)—Orton starts at QB for Dallas, with a 41-year old Algebra teacher (Kitna) backing him up, so spread swung 8 points with Romo expected to be sidelined with lumbar disk problem. Dallas allowed 21+ points in each of last eight games since pummeling Eagles 17-3 (+3) in Week 7, KO’ing Foles with concussion while outgaining Iggles 368-278 in game that was 3-0 Pokes at half. Philly won six of last seven games, crushing Bears 54-11 last week in meaningless game for them, huge game for Chicago; Eagles are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites; this is only their third game on carpet all year- they won 36-21 (+2.5) at Swamp in Week 5, then got pounded 48-30 at Metrodome (-6) two weeks ago. Dallas allowed 35 ppg over last three games; with LB Lee out, can they stand up vs Eagle running attack? Orton has NFL experience (35-34 record in 69 career starts) so Cowboys aren’t destitute here, but tough spot for Orton to step into. NFC East home teams are 5-5 vs spread in divisional games, 1-1 if home dogs. Seven of last eight Dallas games, last three Philly games went over total.
NY Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)—Road team won six of last eight series games; Jets won five of last seven visits here, but lost 23-3 (-1.5) at home to Miami four weeks ago, outgained 453-177 with a -2 turnover ratio. Fish had 16-yard advantage in field position, held Jets to 2.4 ypa. Miami needs a win and help to make playoffs after laying egg in Buffalo last week; all seven of their home games decided by 4 or less points, with Fish 4-3 SU, 1-2 as home favorites. Bills said they had Taneyhill’s snap counts last week, leading to shutout win that ended Dolphins’ 3-game win streak. Jets turned ball over only three times in last three games; they’re +3 in turnovers in their seven wins, -20 in eight losses. Miami has one takeaway in six of its last seven games, with first Jet game (three TAs) the 7th game. This is only third game on grass this year for Jets; they lost 38-13 (+3.5) at Tennessee in Week 4, lost 30-20 (+10) at Carolina two weeks ago. AFC North home favorites are 4-4 against spread in divisional games. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Jet games.
Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)—Seems like long time ago, but Detroit (-5) beat Vikings 34-24 on Opening Day, passing for 352 yards with four takeaways (+2) that helped them to 15-yard advantage in field position, but roof fell in on both teams since, with Detroit -18 in turnovers over its last eight games. Lions lost five of last six weeks, with only win over Rodgers-less Packers on Thanksgiving; they’re 3-4 on road, with all seven games on natural grass. Detroit allowed only one offensive TD on 24 drives in last two games, but offense has been turning ball over so much, they’ve self-destructed, and now a coaching change looms. Lions are 1-14 in last 15 visits to Metrodome, which closes down after this game; four of their last five losses here were by 10+ points. Vikings got crushed in Cincinnati last week, after spanking Eagles here week before; they won last three home games, averaging 35 ppg. NFC North favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 5-3-1 at home. 13 of 15 Viking games this season went over the total.
Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)—NE needs win to keep bye next week, which is huge; they snuck past Bills 23-21 (-9.5) in season opener, outgaining Bills by 145 yards, converting 11-20 on 3rd down, but scoring only two TDs on five red zone drives, with Bills scoring a long defensive TD to stay close. Patriots won 19 of last 20 series games including last 12 played here, but three of last four in Foxboro were decided by 8 or less points- they’re 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 3-20-3-10-24-3-1 point. Misleading score last week; Pats won 41-7, but scored two defensive TDs late and had only one TD drive of more than 53 yards. Buffalo won last two games, blanking Miami last week; they’re 1-5 as road underdogs this year, losing on road by 7-13-18-13-21 points, with wins at Miami/Jaguars. Bills ran ball for 198/203 yards in last two games and held six of last seven opponents under 5.0 yards/pass attempt, but this is it for them, while Pats sharpening up for postseason. Five of seven Buffalo road games, four of last five Patriot games went over total.
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