Another misconception about the Falcons in this one is that you could actually take a look at their record and think they are dog-crap (for no better word), but if you look at who they've played they've gone up against some pretty damn solid teams.
That first game in NO they lost last minute. Then they won in St. Louis. Then a tough loss in Miami before a 7 pt loss to the the Pats. Then they played the Jets and lost by 2, beat the Bucs, and only in the last 4 weeks have played in Arizona (without Roddy White, Sam Baker, Julio Jones, or Stephen Jackson), in Carolina, Seattle at home (with playoff revenge), and last week after their season had already gone down the drain - just lost to a Division Foe TB team that has actually been playing well of late and was looking to avenge their earlier season loss.
I'm thinking Atlanta went into that TB game knowing full-well knowing they had this Prime Time TNF game coming up at Home against the Saints.
That tough schedule though also leads into the misconception of how bad the Falcons are, thus giving us some value on them as essentially a DD dog at home in this one.
Yes, the Falcons are def not that good and their defense has especially taken some heat, but if you look at their personnel they aren't as bad as they've at least seemed in all of these losses they've had so far this season. They have Osi Umenyiora, Peria Jerry (who was a high draft pick), Asanta Samuel, Thomas Decoud, William Moore, decent LBs and also just got back a big LB piece in Sean Weatherspoon...
Here' some news bits about him from Earlier in the year when he got hurt...
"It’s a six-week break and then he can get on the field, then it’s basically an eight-week situation (to determine if he can play)," Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said Thursday. Spoon’s a very big part of this team. . . .We need him back as soon as possible. We hope that in the interim we continue to play hard and win games so that when he comes back, he’s ready to hit full stride and affect this team as we know he can."
From last week:
Falcons linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who had been on short-term injured reserve since injuring his foot in Week 2, is active for Week 11 at Tampa Bay. Weatherspoon was able to practice in full Thursday and Friday and was listed as probable on Friday's injury report...
Even with mainstay Sean Weatherspoon back from a seven-game absence for a foot injury, Falcons linebacker Paul Worrilow remained a tackle machine Week 11 at Tampa Bay. He had 16, including 13 solo, after recording 19 in each of his previous two games. Weatherspoon was no slouch himself, picking up nine, including seven solo.
Sean Weatherspoon has matched up with Jimmy Graham before and Pete Prisco in his preview of the TNF game this week even says word for word "Sean Weatherspoon is as athletic a LB as their is in the league when he's healthy." Besides the Julio Jones injury, this is arguably the healthiest the Falcons have been all season as opposed to the Saints who have Jimmy Graham managing a foot injury, CB Jabari Greer now out for the year and Darren Sproles nursing an injury:
"Darren Sproles (ankle, knee) was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice and is listed as questionable for Week 12 against the Falcons.
Sproles hasn't practiced the last two days after being limited on Monday and will be a game-time decision. Even if he manages to play, he'll be a middling RB3/FLEX option. Sproles has just 125 total yards and one touchdown over his last three games."
A couple other factors I like in this game and some prior highlights:
-> We are getting DD points on a Home Division Dog, we are playing against a team having to travel on a short week (always a positive), TNF games and Division games are usually lower scoring, We have division revenge, we have Prime Time motivation going against a Rival at Home for a team who's season is essentially lost, and we are going against the majority of the betting public.
-> Vegas Insider currently showing 76% on Saints ML and 69% on Saints ATS.
This is what a writer on VegasInsider had to say about the game tomorrow: VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says Atlanta won't give up in spite of its struggles, "You're starting to hear vocal support for Coach Smith from both management and key players, which means the Falcons haven't quit on him despite this nightmare season. Seeing that materialize on the field would help, too, especially on the heels of losing to Tampa. Atlanta would get up for playing New Orleans in two-hand touch at a company picnic, so if nothing else, you'll see a strong effort. The Saints can't afford to just show up, especially since they must overcome missing pieces on defense against a capable Ryan. This might wind up a blowout, but going in expecting the Falcons to just roll over against their primary NFC South rival would be a mistake."