LOW POST: DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS TOTAL
Waiting until as late as possible to get the best price, but I will be playing on the under.
My numbers had this one as a border line 52 (7 TD's plus 1 FG) but clearly the oddsmakers added the extra 1/2 point because it is the primetime TV game and the public loves OVERS. In the public's mind the difference between 52 and 52.5 is under appreciated... but any pro capper knows that if the 52 is indeed a good number...that to get over 52.5 the teams would need...
7 TD's + 1 FG + Another Scoring Play (for the extra 1/2 to be achieved.)
Since the line opened, the total has been bet so heavily, that the line has moved another two points to 54, and I believe 55 or 56 is possible by kick-off (as the public comes on late with their bets, as they wait for the results of the 4pm to decide their stakes on the night game. I can guarantee you...Their will be a scarcity of parlay & tease cards that don't involve the OVER as well. So my point here is that 52.5 was already a juiced up number. We know the move is not related injury or weather, so its clearly been jacked up 3 points more then it should be, and in the NFL this is an obscene move for a primetime TV game with no weather elements.
Now from a capping perspective, I always love when an ex-coach or ex-coordiantor gets to face his old squad. They know the formations, signal counts strengths weakness & QB tendencies so well it makes it is a giant advantage for game planning.
Tonight Rex Ryan, Dallas ex D-Coach, is now with the Saints
coaching staff and will provide a GIANT advantage to the Saints overall game plan. I believe he be able to help the Saints D get to Dallas QB Romo...and Rex's knowledge of the Dallas offensive will help him patch up some of the Saints D inequities. I do believe Romo's QB numbers are a little overrated based on the competition he has played thus far (and the shoot out game vs Denver which account for 1/3 of his stats.)
I also believe the Saints offense will be more controlled with the return of Sprouls to give them some running efficency and burn clock.
The oddsmakers are not in the business of giving away money. They knew that the 52.5 was a good number and have reacted to the unbalance, but I will be routing with the side that the books need.
Play the UNDER (56.5 is the best number) not sure we will get there, but if you can buy a half or full point for -130 go for it.
But to answer the question I know is coming.... YES I would still play the UNDER at 54.
GOOD LUCK!