I am going to be dividing this up into several posts . My betting style is to filter out bad bets , and focus on good bets and neutral bets . For example if you have 10 bets , 3 good , 4 neutral , and 3 bad , and you can avoid the bad bets and hit your good bets , you go from 5-5 to 5-2 . You risk less money , and focus more on your selections , with less background noise .
I am a technical handicapper , so I throw out games where the NFL line is more than 6.5 , because my numbers are always going to pick more than touchdown favorites .
I also have a rule to avoid games where both teams are bad , because you dont know which team is going to screw up more .
So after passing on lines > 6.5 , that leaves me with Lions Browns 2.5 Packers Ravens 3 Eagles Bucs 1 Panthers Vikings -2.5 Steelers Jets -2.5 Saints Pats -2.5 Redskins Cowboys -5.5 Colts Chargers +1.5
Using Covers Power Rankings I throw out games where both teams are ranked less than 20 , which are Panthers Vikings -2.5 Steelers Jets -2.5
Now Inertia uses a rolling average of 4 games , 3 if it turns out that way with byes .
I am going to be dividing this up into several posts . My betting style is to filter out bad bets , and focus on good bets and neutral bets . For example if you have 10 bets , 3 good , 4 neutral , and 3 bad , and you can avoid the bad bets and hit your good bets , you go from 5-5 to 5-2 . You risk less money , and focus more on your selections , with less background noise .
I am a technical handicapper , so I throw out games where the NFL line is more than 6.5 , because my numbers are always going to pick more than touchdown favorites .
I also have a rule to avoid games where both teams are bad , because you dont know which team is going to screw up more .
So after passing on lines > 6.5 , that leaves me with Lions Browns 2.5 Packers Ravens 3 Eagles Bucs 1 Panthers Vikings -2.5 Steelers Jets -2.5 Saints Pats -2.5 Redskins Cowboys -5.5 Colts Chargers +1.5
Using Covers Power Rankings I throw out games where both teams are ranked less than 20 , which are Panthers Vikings -2.5 Steelers Jets -2.5
Now Inertia uses a rolling average of 4 games , 3 if it turns out that way with byes .
Lets start things off with Lions Browns 2.5 I believe Calvin is still out with injury , and I am going with that has been factored into the line . This will lower the Lions offensive inertia a bit , so this could be a minimum unit play if you go with the Lions .
Weeden is back as qb , so this also affects the Browns offensive inertia .
The Lions have an offensive inertia of 1.80 and a defensive inertia of 1.64 . The Browns have an offensive inertia of 1.57 and a defensive inertia of 1.22 . I use offensive inertia for these picks , which selects the Lions .
Lets start things off with Lions Browns 2.5 I believe Calvin is still out with injury , and I am going with that has been factored into the line . This will lower the Lions offensive inertia a bit , so this could be a minimum unit play if you go with the Lions .
Weeden is back as qb , so this also affects the Browns offensive inertia .
The Lions have an offensive inertia of 1.80 and a defensive inertia of 1.64 . The Browns have an offensive inertia of 1.57 and a defensive inertia of 1.22 . I use offensive inertia for these picks , which selects the Lions .
Packers Ravens +3 This is where number crunching in handy , as I have no idea which way to lean . So lets get on with it ... Green Bay comes in with 2.28 ( pretty good ) offensive inertia , but they do have a defensive inertia of 2.02 , which is a minor red flag for covering purposes . The Ravens have an offensive inertia of 1.97 with a defensive inertia of 1.72 .
For those wondering inertia does pick a good deal of favorites , but they are usually favorites for good reasons .
Packers Ravens +3 This is where number crunching in handy , as I have no idea which way to lean . So lets get on with it ... Green Bay comes in with 2.28 ( pretty good ) offensive inertia , but they do have a defensive inertia of 2.02 , which is a minor red flag for covering purposes . The Ravens have an offensive inertia of 1.97 with a defensive inertia of 1.72 .
For those wondering inertia does pick a good deal of favorites , but they are usually favorites for good reasons .
Packers Ravens +3 This is where number crunching in handy , as I have no idea which way to lean . So lets get on with it ... Green Bay comes in with 2.28 ( pretty good ) offensive inertia , but they do have a defensive inertia of 2.02 , which is a minor red flag for covering purposes . The Ravens have an offensive inertia of 1.97 with a defensive inertia of 1.72 .
For those wondering inertia does pick a good deal of favorites , but they are usually favorites for good reasons .
Inertia is going with the Packers .
How is inertia calculated? I had a system in 2007 for CFB that was identifying winners 67% each week and I made a ton of money, then in 2008 the same system went to crap and didn't break .500. Has this system worked from one season to the next?
Packers Ravens +3 This is where number crunching in handy , as I have no idea which way to lean . So lets get on with it ... Green Bay comes in with 2.28 ( pretty good ) offensive inertia , but they do have a defensive inertia of 2.02 , which is a minor red flag for covering purposes . The Ravens have an offensive inertia of 1.97 with a defensive inertia of 1.72 .
For those wondering inertia does pick a good deal of favorites , but they are usually favorites for good reasons .
Inertia is going with the Packers .
How is inertia calculated? I had a system in 2007 for CFB that was identifying winners 67% each week and I made a ton of money, then in 2008 the same system went to crap and didn't break .500. Has this system worked from one season to the next?
Inertia is a super secret formula discovered by me . :) It started out as a reaction to an article by a scamdicapper talking about team mistakes . He listed the teams and his numbers and he was onto something . Then I add a couple of factors , and basically turned it into a ratio of good things / mistakes .
Also at the time everyone was doing power ratings , and when I used power ratings as one of my top things , I didnt do so well . Think of inertia as an efficiency rating or a quality rating . Offensive inertia usually does in the high 50s , and defensive inertia usually does in the mid fifties . Trying to use my tempo calculation has thrown me off in the past . It works , but in a certain way .
I am learning how to use these numbers by doing this in real time , and am even working on a rating called inertia delta , which is basically how strong inertia is . Using that I stay away or go min on certain selections .
I am going with a flat betting style using the kiss approach , but still working on my gold , silver , and bronze bets . I am also working on a A to F grading system , but for right now I just go with the higher offensive inertia .
Inertia is a super secret formula discovered by me . :) It started out as a reaction to an article by a scamdicapper talking about team mistakes . He listed the teams and his numbers and he was onto something . Then I add a couple of factors , and basically turned it into a ratio of good things / mistakes .
Also at the time everyone was doing power ratings , and when I used power ratings as one of my top things , I didnt do so well . Think of inertia as an efficiency rating or a quality rating . Offensive inertia usually does in the high 50s , and defensive inertia usually does in the mid fifties . Trying to use my tempo calculation has thrown me off in the past . It works , but in a certain way .
I am learning how to use these numbers by doing this in real time , and am even working on a rating called inertia delta , which is basically how strong inertia is . Using that I stay away or go min on certain selections .
I am going with a flat betting style using the kiss approach , but still working on my gold , silver , and bronze bets . I am also working on a A to F grading system , but for right now I just go with the higher offensive inertia .
I had a somewhat similar approach in my system, but it was REAL complex. My background is in demographic research using linear regression models to predict market behavior.
The base of my system was predicting scores by different stats including tempo, plays per TD, pass/rush ratio etc. I calculated scores 6 different ways and then weighted them with power rankings and used the median and range to determine Play, No Play, or Fade. I even developed my own power ranking score from the WL record of a team's opponents. And I also threw in TO margin, penalties and yards/penalty.
Anyway, it worked GREAT for one year and then crashed. I tried tweaking it the following years but it never got any better. I decided it was just WAY TOO complicated. My great year in 07 was likely 1/2 statistical anomaly.
BOL, I will watch your system. But I would advise not talking about how it works too much. Betting is NOT a market place of supply and demand like many think it is. It is more like cat and mouse spy vs. spy type of game.
Here's to us Mice, may we find the mother load of cheese.
I had a somewhat similar approach in my system, but it was REAL complex. My background is in demographic research using linear regression models to predict market behavior.
The base of my system was predicting scores by different stats including tempo, plays per TD, pass/rush ratio etc. I calculated scores 6 different ways and then weighted them with power rankings and used the median and range to determine Play, No Play, or Fade. I even developed my own power ranking score from the WL record of a team's opponents. And I also threw in TO margin, penalties and yards/penalty.
Anyway, it worked GREAT for one year and then crashed. I tried tweaking it the following years but it never got any better. I decided it was just WAY TOO complicated. My great year in 07 was likely 1/2 statistical anomaly.
BOL, I will watch your system. But I would advise not talking about how it works too much. Betting is NOT a market place of supply and demand like many think it is. It is more like cat and mouse spy vs. spy type of game.
Here's to us Mice, may we find the mother load of cheese.
@sscott Well if you want to fiddle around with factoring inertia to points or other stats , feel free . My experiments with yards per point , pf , pa etc havent worked out so great . I know its only proof of principle , but you can find the inertia numbers for week 4 - week 6 , and go from there .
The next game to look at is Eagle Bucs +1 This is another game I would have trouble handicapping which way to lean . Also this is where the numbers raise some red flags . The Eagles have an offensive inertia of 2.01 , which is pretty darn good , but they also have a defensive inertia of 2.18 , which is pretty darn bad . On the other hand , the Bucs have an offensive inertia of 0.95 , which is really really bad , and a defensive inertia of 1.69 , which is in the range of ok to above average .
This is also the chance to debut inertia delta . Inertia Delta is another filter metric on whether to bet a selection . You are looking for a positive number , basically its a pass fail . The Eagles have an inertia delta of -25 and the Bucs have an inertia delta of -16 .
Offensive inertia is taking the Eagles , but I believe you should pass on this selection .
@sscott Well if you want to fiddle around with factoring inertia to points or other stats , feel free . My experiments with yards per point , pf , pa etc havent worked out so great . I know its only proof of principle , but you can find the inertia numbers for week 4 - week 6 , and go from there .
The next game to look at is Eagle Bucs +1 This is another game I would have trouble handicapping which way to lean . Also this is where the numbers raise some red flags . The Eagles have an offensive inertia of 2.01 , which is pretty darn good , but they also have a defensive inertia of 2.18 , which is pretty darn bad . On the other hand , the Bucs have an offensive inertia of 0.95 , which is really really bad , and a defensive inertia of 1.69 , which is in the range of ok to above average .
This is also the chance to debut inertia delta . Inertia Delta is another filter metric on whether to bet a selection . You are looking for a positive number , basically its a pass fail . The Eagles have an inertia delta of -25 and the Bucs have an inertia delta of -16 .
Offensive inertia is taking the Eagles , but I believe you should pass on this selection .
@sscott Well if you want to fiddle around with factoring inertia to points or other stats , feel free . My experiments with yards per point , pf , pa etc havent worked out so great . I know its only proof of principle , but you can find the inertia numbers for week 4 - week 6 , and go from there .
The next game to look at is Eagle Bucs +1 This is another game I would have trouble handicapping which way to lean . Also this is where the numbers raise some red flags . The Eagles have an offensive inertia of 2.01 , which is pretty darn good , but they also have a defensive inertia of 2.18 , which is pretty darn bad . On the other hand , the Bucs have an offensive inertia of 0.95 , which is really really bad , and a defensive inertia of 1.69 , which is in the range of ok to above average .
This is also the chance to debut inertia delta . Inertia Delta is another filter metric on whether to bet a selection . You are looking for a positive number , basically its a pass fail . The Eagles have an inertia delta of -25 and the Bucs have an inertia delta of -16 .
Offensive inertia is taking the Eagles , but I believe you should pass on this selection .
Interesting formula you have here...based off if my program that I use I have Tampa bays defense numbers calculated to offset the eagles offense...I understand formulas for stats are important but also to do some capping is key to certain games such as eagles back to back road games heading into Tampa which a Tampa team is coming off a bye week to prepare for chip Kelly's system...Tampa defensive cordinator with a really good defense coming off a bye sounds good enough to place a wager on Tampa at home I'm a fan of stats and formulas keep up the good work and contribution to the forums
@sscott Well if you want to fiddle around with factoring inertia to points or other stats , feel free . My experiments with yards per point , pf , pa etc havent worked out so great . I know its only proof of principle , but you can find the inertia numbers for week 4 - week 6 , and go from there .
The next game to look at is Eagle Bucs +1 This is another game I would have trouble handicapping which way to lean . Also this is where the numbers raise some red flags . The Eagles have an offensive inertia of 2.01 , which is pretty darn good , but they also have a defensive inertia of 2.18 , which is pretty darn bad . On the other hand , the Bucs have an offensive inertia of 0.95 , which is really really bad , and a defensive inertia of 1.69 , which is in the range of ok to above average .
This is also the chance to debut inertia delta . Inertia Delta is another filter metric on whether to bet a selection . You are looking for a positive number , basically its a pass fail . The Eagles have an inertia delta of -25 and the Bucs have an inertia delta of -16 .
Offensive inertia is taking the Eagles , but I believe you should pass on this selection .
Interesting formula you have here...based off if my program that I use I have Tampa bays defense numbers calculated to offset the eagles offense...I understand formulas for stats are important but also to do some capping is key to certain games such as eagles back to back road games heading into Tampa which a Tampa team is coming off a bye week to prepare for chip Kelly's system...Tampa defensive cordinator with a really good defense coming off a bye sounds good enough to place a wager on Tampa at home I'm a fan of stats and formulas keep up the good work and contribution to the forums
Yes right now I am in the phase of do these numbers hold up . In the past after doing my filters , I would come up with a selection , not trying to overthink things , and just go with it . So the next step is to weed out those selections which have a lower chance of covering .
Maybe Sunday morning I will compare selections from the past few weeks of our two systems ...
I am also working on my fundamental handicapping so here is my breakdown on Eagles Bucs +1 Bucs advantages , playing at home , coming off a bye , basically a pickem game , pretty good defense Bucs disadvantages I ask the question Can team xyz have a reasonable chance to win this game ? My answer is an ehhh maybe . Off the top of my head I think TB is winless , and they have lost games in the 4th quarter . They also have a boneheaded jerk coach not ready for the pros . Another disadvantage is the Bucs offense cant keep up with the eagles offense . TB realizes they cant win the division , and a wild card is a long longshot , so that will take the wind out of their sails .
Eagles advantages explosive offense , coaching advantage , basically a pickem game . I believe they have a better chance of winning the game than TB Eagles disadvanges weak defense , qb uncertainty
I rate the Eagles disadvantages smaller than the Bucs disadvantages . For example on the defense its a resistable object ( TB offense ) against a moveable force ( Eagles defense ) . I think Vic or Nowls (sp ??? ) can handle the qb job in this situation .
Yes right now I am in the phase of do these numbers hold up . In the past after doing my filters , I would come up with a selection , not trying to overthink things , and just go with it . So the next step is to weed out those selections which have a lower chance of covering .
Maybe Sunday morning I will compare selections from the past few weeks of our two systems ...
I am also working on my fundamental handicapping so here is my breakdown on Eagles Bucs +1 Bucs advantages , playing at home , coming off a bye , basically a pickem game , pretty good defense Bucs disadvantages I ask the question Can team xyz have a reasonable chance to win this game ? My answer is an ehhh maybe . Off the top of my head I think TB is winless , and they have lost games in the 4th quarter . They also have a boneheaded jerk coach not ready for the pros . Another disadvantage is the Bucs offense cant keep up with the eagles offense . TB realizes they cant win the division , and a wild card is a long longshot , so that will take the wind out of their sails .
Eagles advantages explosive offense , coaching advantage , basically a pickem game . I believe they have a better chance of winning the game than TB Eagles disadvanges weak defense , qb uncertainty
I rate the Eagles disadvantages smaller than the Bucs disadvantages . For example on the defense its a resistable object ( TB offense ) against a moveable force ( Eagles defense ) . I think Vic or Nowls (sp ??? ) can handle the qb job in this situation .
Now its time to examine the Saints Pats matchup . I think this line is from Weds Covers.com section . Saints Pats -2.5 The Saints have an offensive inertia of 2.04 . Can we all agree the Saints have a pretty good offense ? Now this is about efficiency to win and cover . The Saints defensive inertia is 1.81 , which is in the just ok category , a little bit high , but the Saints offense is the winning way .
Now we move onto the Pats , who have an offensive inertia of 1.69 and a defensive inertia of 1.59 . I thought they would be a little better , but they did lose to the Bengals , and had trouble with the Jets and Bills .
Next we look at inertia delta . The Saints have a solid respectable 25 , and the Pats come in at 2 . I am just starting out with inertia delta , so I am thinking the Pats are ok or minimum play if you want to take the Pats . Inertia delta is indicating a green light for betting the Saints if you are so inclined .
Now its time to examine the Saints Pats matchup . I think this line is from Weds Covers.com section . Saints Pats -2.5 The Saints have an offensive inertia of 2.04 . Can we all agree the Saints have a pretty good offense ? Now this is about efficiency to win and cover . The Saints defensive inertia is 1.81 , which is in the just ok category , a little bit high , but the Saints offense is the winning way .
Now we move onto the Pats , who have an offensive inertia of 1.69 and a defensive inertia of 1.59 . I thought they would be a little better , but they did lose to the Bengals , and had trouble with the Jets and Bills .
Next we look at inertia delta . The Saints have a solid respectable 25 , and the Pats come in at 2 . I am just starting out with inertia delta , so I am thinking the Pats are ok or minimum play if you want to take the Pats . Inertia delta is indicating a green light for betting the Saints if you are so inclined .
Redskins Cowboys -5.5 The Redskins have an offensive inertia of 1.59 , which I am rating is not bad , but not that good . Put it in the category of its ok I guess . Keep in mind this is about efficiency which is likely to win and cover . The Redskins have a defense inertia of 2.62 . Folks this is a major red flag . If you were to give it a letter grade , it might be a D minus or maybe an F . If you are curious about correlation between inertia and cover success , check into how well the Redskins cover .
Moving onto the Cowboys , they have an offensive inertia of 2.41 , which is very respectable , and I think they have a respectable cover record . The defensive inertia is a little shaky at 2.09 , but that might be do the Peyton Broncos factor .
Inertia is taking the Cowboys .
Now its time to look into inertia delta , which is basically used to filter out selections with a negative double digit number . The Redskins have an inertia delta of -59 , and the Cowboys have an inertia delta of -6 , so no biggie there on the Cowboys .
Ok , this is practice fundamental handicapping for me where I highlight the pros and cons of each team going into the matchup .
Redskins pros Coming off a bye week , RG3 getting healthier , division game Offense can be explosive at times
Redskins cons Yikes on the defense
Cowboys pros Pretty good offense , division game , no major turnover problem , injury situation ??? This is me thinking out loud . Do the Cowboys have any major injuries ? I am putting this in the pros section as I dont think they do .
The next game is where my numbers lean in the opposite direction of how I play this side . Colts Chargers +1.5 The Colts have an offensive inertia of 2.46 and a defensive inertia of 1.98 . I am guessing the Seahawks and Niners are a major factor in the defensive inertia , which makes it a minor red flag . The Colts do get an A minus B plus at worst on offensive inertia .
The Chargers have an offensive have an offensive inertia of 3.17 , which is Seahawks cover potential level . The Chargers did have a 3 game stretch where they were playing great ball , but I expect them to start coming down to earth . The Chargers defensive inertia of 2.32 is unsettling .
For those of you wondering , how I would bet this , I would have a min unit play on the Colts . In this situation , the Chargers are an ok bet also .
I havent looked into totals , but for you guys into that , you have some numbers that support the over . If you like to bet the over under , check out the inertia numbers since week 4 . If you notice correlation , please post your observations .
The Colts have an inertia delta of 57 and the Chargers have an inertia of 43 , so no red flags there .
Redskins Cowboys -5.5 The Redskins have an offensive inertia of 1.59 , which I am rating is not bad , but not that good . Put it in the category of its ok I guess . Keep in mind this is about efficiency which is likely to win and cover . The Redskins have a defense inertia of 2.62 . Folks this is a major red flag . If you were to give it a letter grade , it might be a D minus or maybe an F . If you are curious about correlation between inertia and cover success , check into how well the Redskins cover .
Moving onto the Cowboys , they have an offensive inertia of 2.41 , which is very respectable , and I think they have a respectable cover record . The defensive inertia is a little shaky at 2.09 , but that might be do the Peyton Broncos factor .
Inertia is taking the Cowboys .
Now its time to look into inertia delta , which is basically used to filter out selections with a negative double digit number . The Redskins have an inertia delta of -59 , and the Cowboys have an inertia delta of -6 , so no biggie there on the Cowboys .
Ok , this is practice fundamental handicapping for me where I highlight the pros and cons of each team going into the matchup .
Redskins pros Coming off a bye week , RG3 getting healthier , division game Offense can be explosive at times
Redskins cons Yikes on the defense
Cowboys pros Pretty good offense , division game , no major turnover problem , injury situation ??? This is me thinking out loud . Do the Cowboys have any major injuries ? I am putting this in the pros section as I dont think they do .
The next game is where my numbers lean in the opposite direction of how I play this side . Colts Chargers +1.5 The Colts have an offensive inertia of 2.46 and a defensive inertia of 1.98 . I am guessing the Seahawks and Niners are a major factor in the defensive inertia , which makes it a minor red flag . The Colts do get an A minus B plus at worst on offensive inertia .
The Chargers have an offensive have an offensive inertia of 3.17 , which is Seahawks cover potential level . The Chargers did have a 3 game stretch where they were playing great ball , but I expect them to start coming down to earth . The Chargers defensive inertia of 2.32 is unsettling .
For those of you wondering , how I would bet this , I would have a min unit play on the Colts . In this situation , the Chargers are an ok bet also .
I havent looked into totals , but for you guys into that , you have some numbers that support the over . If you like to bet the over under , check out the inertia numbers since week 4 . If you notice correlation , please post your observations .
The Colts have an inertia delta of 57 and the Chargers have an inertia of 43 , so no red flags there .
Now its time to examine the Saints Pats matchup . I think this line is from Weds Covers.com section . Saints Pats -2.5 The Saints have an offensive inertia of 2.04 . Can we all agree the Saints have a pretty good offense ? Now this is about efficiency to win and cover . The Saints defensive inertia is 1.81 , which is in the just ok category , a little bit high , but the Saints offense is the winning way .
Now we move onto the Pats , who have an offensive inertia of 1.69 and a defensive inertia of 1.59 . I thought they would be a little better , but they did lose to the Bengals , and had trouble with the Jets and Bills .
Next we look at inertia delta . The Saints have a solid respectable 25 , and the Pats come in at 2 . I am just starting out with inertia delta , so I am thinking the Pats are ok or minimum play if you want to take the Pats . Inertia delta is indicating a green light for betting the Saints if you are so inclined .
Inertia is taking the Saints and the points . :)
I have similar numbers so far we if we both hit we might be on to something here...
Now its time to examine the Saints Pats matchup . I think this line is from Weds Covers.com section . Saints Pats -2.5 The Saints have an offensive inertia of 2.04 . Can we all agree the Saints have a pretty good offense ? Now this is about efficiency to win and cover . The Saints defensive inertia is 1.81 , which is in the just ok category , a little bit high , but the Saints offense is the winning way .
Now we move onto the Pats , who have an offensive inertia of 1.69 and a defensive inertia of 1.59 . I thought they would be a little better , but they did lose to the Bengals , and had trouble with the Jets and Bills .
Next we look at inertia delta . The Saints have a solid respectable 25 , and the Pats come in at 2 . I am just starting out with inertia delta , so I am thinking the Pats are ok or minimum play if you want to take the Pats . Inertia delta is indicating a green light for betting the Saints if you are so inclined .
Inertia is taking the Saints and the points . :)
I have similar numbers so far we if we both hit we might be on to something here...
Well I could have used the term momentum , but inertia is easier to spell and type . :) Also I think term inertia fits what I am trying to do .
If you didnt notice , after I throw out games where the line is greater than 6.5 , I dont factor the line at that point . The line factor work has already been done . And if you go and check the final scores on my filtered games , you will see how many points the line was off .
I dont give a flip if it is a public play or not .
Well I could have used the term momentum , but inertia is easier to spell and type . :) Also I think term inertia fits what I am trying to do .
If you didnt notice , after I throw out games where the line is greater than 6.5 , I dont factor the line at that point . The line factor work has already been done . And if you go and check the final scores on my filtered games , you will see how many points the line was off .
I dont give a flip if it is a public play or not .
Well except for a last second touchdown in the Pats game , offensive inertia picked winners . I would have had a cover in the Packers game , but the Packers defense decided to stop playing and let the Ravens back in the game .
Now I get to play the song "Waiting Is The Hardest Part"
Well except for a last second touchdown in the Pats game , offensive inertia picked winners . I would have had a cover in the Packers game , but the Packers defense decided to stop playing and let the Ravens back in the game .
Now I get to play the song "Waiting Is The Hardest Part"
Ok , now its time for some self analysis of my picks . I have the pet peeve about making poor selections when I dont follow my guidelines .
Lets start with the Lions Browns game . Some would say I made the wrong call using my methods , and this game should have passed on this game or played Cleveland . I thought the Lions would play close after having some time to make adjustments without Calvin . I was also kinda sorta going against the Browns . I dont usually like going against a team except when I notice major red flags .
I also feel I made the right call on the Packers and Saints even though they didnt cover . Two bigs plays that usually dont happen or shouldnt happen .
Originally I was going to pass on the Eagles Bucs game , as there were some red flags on the Eagles side . But there were way more red flags on the Bucs side . So I went against TB . Also I couldnt resist going head to head with AFN on this game . :)
My numbers told me the Cowboys were the play , and I felt good about this pick going in . In my book , the only edges for Washington were it being a division game and RG3 playing out of his mind . Its also a division game for the Cowboys , so that could cancel things out . I would assign the probability of RG3 playing a great game with his injury situation at a low level .
For tonights Colts Chargers , my metrics say it is an ok bet either way . I am taking the Colts , but I am ok with people taking the Chargers . So for those taking the Chargers , and want to scream ARRRRGGGHHHHH !!! Why did I take the Dolts if SD doesnt cover ... SD is still an ok play .
Ok , now its time for some self analysis of my picks . I have the pet peeve about making poor selections when I dont follow my guidelines .
Lets start with the Lions Browns game . Some would say I made the wrong call using my methods , and this game should have passed on this game or played Cleveland . I thought the Lions would play close after having some time to make adjustments without Calvin . I was also kinda sorta going against the Browns . I dont usually like going against a team except when I notice major red flags .
I also feel I made the right call on the Packers and Saints even though they didnt cover . Two bigs plays that usually dont happen or shouldnt happen .
Originally I was going to pass on the Eagles Bucs game , as there were some red flags on the Eagles side . But there were way more red flags on the Bucs side . So I went against TB . Also I couldnt resist going head to head with AFN on this game . :)
My numbers told me the Cowboys were the play , and I felt good about this pick going in . In my book , the only edges for Washington were it being a division game and RG3 playing out of his mind . Its also a division game for the Cowboys , so that could cancel things out . I would assign the probability of RG3 playing a great game with his injury situation at a low level .
For tonights Colts Chargers , my metrics say it is an ok bet either way . I am taking the Colts , but I am ok with people taking the Chargers . So for those taking the Chargers , and want to scream ARRRRGGGHHHHH !!! Why did I take the Dolts if SD doesnt cover ... SD is still an ok play .
Very interesting read on this thread. I love reading about people's theories, models and other formulas they either use or create. Will definitely be following you on this all season.
I personally like to use averages which obviously does not work all the time. I am trying to create my own theory using certain statistics and plays.
I agree with you, I am also on the Colts as well. For me, the Colts have a great defence (top 5 so far) and their offence has been great as well. As for Chargers, they have one of the worst defences but their offence is quite good as well. I think it will be a close one by Colts to get the win and cover ATS.
Using my stats that I have put together, Im predicting 27-20 Colts.
Very interesting read on this thread. I love reading about people's theories, models and other formulas they either use or create. Will definitely be following you on this all season.
I personally like to use averages which obviously does not work all the time. I am trying to create my own theory using certain statistics and plays.
I agree with you, I am also on the Colts as well. For me, the Colts have a great defence (top 5 so far) and their offence has been great as well. As for Chargers, they have one of the worst defences but their offence is quite good as well. I think it will be a close one by Colts to get the win and cover ATS.
Using my stats that I have put together, Im predicting 27-20 Colts.
Hey Aussie , have you thought about taking the average of the median and average ? Too bad its not practical to use a high low average in the NFL where you throw out the top and bottom 5 % or 10 % . For week 7 , I plan on including my tempo stat to indicate how teams handle pressure .
So far my efforts to include points as a comparison to inertia havent worked out .
Hey Aussie , have you thought about taking the average of the median and average ? Too bad its not practical to use a high low average in the NFL where you throw out the top and bottom 5 % or 10 % . For week 7 , I plan on including my tempo stat to indicate how teams handle pressure .
So far my efforts to include points as a comparison to inertia havent worked out .
For those following my calculations , thanks for your support . An interesting note about offensive inertia is that it has predicted 70 % of the winners since week 4 . And if you throw out the games I should have filtered out it rises to 75 % . So I think it is a pretty good calculation to use . In week 7 I will also be posting TEMPO , which I think will work well with inertia .
For those following my calculations , thanks for your support . An interesting note about offensive inertia is that it has predicted 70 % of the winners since week 4 . And if you throw out the games I should have filtered out it rises to 75 % . So I think it is a pretty good calculation to use . In week 7 I will also be posting TEMPO , which I think will work well with inertia .
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