Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Week 5 Picks & Writeups...
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#1
Posted: 10/4/2013 5:11:39 PM

Wk 4 was a WIN for the Good Guys! Lets keep up that momentum....

I obviously cant count it towards my record here, but I was lucky enough to have chosen Cleveland -4.5 lastnight, quite the mess of a game due to injuries but I believe if Hoyer & EJ Manuel had played all 4Qs, the Browns still Win by a TD+....

 

Week 5 Picks:

 

Cinci -1.5 vs New England

Lastwk was tough on Cinci, coming off an emotional Win vs GB, then playing a tough Division opponent, I was all over Clev but I even said, if NE Wins and Cin loses, ill be on Cinci. So I am, and I think their Defense will get up and stifle NE. (Laying 2 Units)

Indy +2.5 vs Seattle

Seattle is very good but they are beatable on the road. Only problem is that the Colts have played better away from home. This is a statement game for them, if they win this game vs who a lot of ppl see as the best NFC team, they'll move to 4-1 & become "for real". I faded Seattle lastwk and won by the hook, I think their comeback Win lastwk will have them vulnerable & the Colts have the Offensive pieces to score vs Seattle s stout D & Secondary. The Colts showed vs SF that they can bang with the bangers and play physical football, they aren't just a finesse team and they'll prove it again vs Seattle. (Laying 2 Units)

 

Tennessee +3.5 vs KC

This one was tough bc I believed in KC before this season but I also believed in Tennessee being better as well. I just think KC is similar to Seattle, where their Homefield advantage is so huge, the Road is where theyre vulnerable. Fitzpatrick isn't such a huge dropoff from Locker, other than mobility and Tenns a running team anyways. I think Fitz outplays ASmith, not by much but Smith may make the crucial TO while Fitz manages the game better, both are "game managers" but I believe Fitz will play better. (Laying 2 Units)

Baltimore +3.5 @ Miami

I originally "leaned" towards Miami but after digging deeper, I really like Baltimore now, at least enough to bet on them. Miami did show me something vs NO but they may have also tipped their hand. A savvy HC like Harbaugh may not have the same pieces as NO so he cant exploit them the same, but I think his gameplan will be enough to Win. Losing lastwk was embarrassing to Baltimore and I think they 'right the ship' vs a possibly overrated Dolphins team. I'd take the Ravens ML but the 3.5 is a bonus! (Laying 2 Units)

 

Dallas +7.5 vs Denver

Obviously Denver is red-hot right now and maybe jumping on the streak is smarter than betting against it, but I really like this spot for Dallas. I remember in like 2006, the Colts were 9-0 going into Dallas ONLY laying 1.5 and everyone thought I was insane saying that Indy was such a sucker bet, but needless to say, Indy left 9-1. Obviously this line isn't a "sucker bet" bc laying a TD in Dallas is never an easy cover but I think Dallas has a real shot to Win outright but will ultimately come up just short. Now I know usually the team who Wins, covers like 80% of the time, but I'm still on it. I "Like" the Dallas ML but I really like the 7.5! Dallas was in a tough spot lastwk going into a legit SD team whos record wasn't reflecting how well they'd played thus far. Im not saying Denver couldn't stay hot and torch Dallas, im just saying I think if they win, its a FG game... (Laying 2 Units)

 

Atlanta -9.5 vs NYJ

Atlanta is gonna destroy the Jets on MNF in my humble opinion. This Jets team has played VERY WELL to this point, but Atlanta @ Home is one of the NFCs best. Other than the fact that the Jets 2 Losses were on the road, they're about to go into one of their famous "tail-spins". This is how I script it, Jets hang in early with their D and Running game controlling the clock, but no matter when it happen, they will go into a hole IE. 10-14pts and Geno will try and do "too much". Geno Smith has showed flashes but hes turning the ball over WAY too much. He's also playing with a chip on his shoulder after being passed up in the draft and will try and "defy" his doubters on PrimeTime, problem is, he isn't that good yet. It may only be a 7pt lead but when Rex asks Smith to pass, he will force some things and play way above his head. ATL is probably good for 3 TOs and 1 Pick-6... (Laying 4 Units)

 

I know all my plays are 2u, other than ATL being 4u. No reasoning, just cant seem to quantify my fav play of those games. I obviously like ATL a lot, but the remainders are all solid plays!

 

If u dig yourself into a hole, though I NEVER condone it, feel free to CHASE on ATLANTA! I do like them that much!

PS. I may add a 1u play or two, not sure yet, still just 'liking' plays such as NYG, AZ or SF, nothing I like enough to bet though....

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!!! 

 

THOSE WITH ME!!! 

 

THOSE AGAINST ME!!! 

quote
zamigo6 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
zamigo6
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 4774
Location: Nicaragua
#2
Posted: 10/4/2013 6:00:27 PM
strong card
quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5385
Location: New Jersey
#3
Posted: 10/4/2013 6:21:33 PM
I like em, Bets. I'm with u on Tenn and Cincy, and lean heavily on Indy as well. Your other three plays I took in my work poll, so we seem to be on the same page. 

Hopefully that translates to a profitable week. GL this weekend. 
quote
AceRothstein27 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AceRothstein27
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 734
Location:
#4
Posted: 10/4/2013 6:58:09 PM
With you on Tenn and Indy, Against you on miami and arizona. Teased Broncos to be safe but betting against peyton... 
quote
wa11street13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wa11street13
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 46
Location:
#5
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:12:58 PM
Wow.  I'm against you on EVERY game.  That scares me!
quote
tboon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
tboon
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 494
Location:
#6
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:23:37 PM
Wow, I'm with you on every game. And that makes me very happy.

cheers
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#7
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:26:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wa11street13:

Wow.  I'm against you on EVERY game.  That scares me!
please don't let my picks sway you, go with your gut! fwiw, this is my poorest start to the season in a while... maybe it means im due but always go with ur gut! BOL!
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#8
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:26:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tboon:

Wow, I'm with you on every game. And that makes me very happy.

cheers

 BOL to us!

quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#9
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:26:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

I like em, Bets. I'm with u on Tenn and Cincy, and lean heavily on Indy as well. Your other three plays I took in my work poll, so we seem to be on the same page. 

Hopefully that translates to a profitable week. GL this weekend. 
I sure hope so!
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#10
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:46:40 PM

ADDING:

Houston +6.5 @ SF

I know I was leaning SF but I looked into it more and changed my mind. I liked SF bc I was thinking that Kaep "righted the ship" but im not 100% sold on that. Houston has had possibly the toughest first 4 opponents and has played them all tough except their debacle in Baltimore, which was a terrible spot! They should've won lastwk too but I think they play mad from that tough loss. Their D is extremely tough against the Pass (ranked #1) and I think they'll be able to stop the run enough. Their Offense has been dynamic with D. Hopkins finally giving Andre the legit #2 WR hes been yearning for! They have committed some crucial TOs but I think they stay composed in this one. For me, this ones a FG game and 6.5 is value, should only be 3.5 TOPS... (Laying 1 Unit)

 

I'm going big this week with 7 current plays listed, im not gonna allow the "amount of plays to dictate my bets... if I like it enough, I play it!

quote
clintonoman
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
clintonoman
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 6
Location:
#11
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:08:16 PM
i`ll play those picks,
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#12
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:12:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clintonoman:

i`ll play those picks,
I'm glad ur 1st post was this! lol  BOL sir!
quote
WussieMan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WussieMan
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 17747
Location: New York
#13
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:37:50 PM
GL
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#14
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:38:01 PM

I NEVER bet Teasers but I cant resist! Plus my sites only got me laying Regular Juice so the value is there!  

Baltimore +9Colts +9

I think both could Win outright but I LOVE getting this many points for regular juice! SO MUCH Value IMHO!.... B'more is now only +3 and Colts up to 3, though its the same as 2.5 in the teaser... Not a Teaser guy, most "Exotic Bets" are sucker bets to me but I really like this one..... HONESTLY - the degenerate in me just couldn't resist!  (Laying 2.2 to Win 2 Units)

 

Bringing my Week 5 Card to:

 

B'more +9/Indy +9 *2-tm/6pt TEASER* (2u)

ATL -9.5 (4u)

Cin +1.5 (2u)

B'more +3.5 (2u)

Indy +2.5 (2u)

Tenn +3.5 (2u)

Dallas +7.5 (2u)

Hou +6.5 (1u)

 

I know its a big card! .... 8 plays thus far & MAYBE MORE!

....but I gotta go with what I like... the first few weeks were tough for me bc my judgement was completely off on teams early.... Now I think I have a grasp on who's doing what and I believe some teams are over/under - rated so im gonna take advantage of that! I always say Weeks 3-8 are my best and though it wasn't a big Win lastwk, I believe I have a grasp on where the lines-makers are going....

quote
reeferboyz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
reeferboyz
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 57
Location:
#15
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:38:13 PM
Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Tennessee...games Ive been looking at all week and seeing you on them is making me feel all the better betting them. Good Luck on Sunday.  
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#16
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:38:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WussieMan:

GL
quote
bets2win send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bets2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1606
Location: New York
#17
Posted: 10/4/2013 8:41:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by reeferboyz:

Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Tennessee...games Ive been looking at all week and seeing you on them is making me feel all the better betting them. Good Luck on Sunday.  
 BOL! Realistically I think NE, SEA, & KC are all good teams, all legit teams ... but I just like these spots for the home teams. ppl grossly underrate picking "spots" in the NFL... For example, B'more losing to Buff lastwk and Cinci losing to Clev... I think the losing team is way better but those were solid spots to fade them... For me, these are good spots!
quote
beemerville send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
beemerville
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 264
Location: Texas
#18
Posted: 10/5/2013 4:04:54 AM
 BOL, Bets! always like reading your write ups..  money, money moneeeey!
quote
drozanski send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
drozanski
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 600
Location: United States
#19
Posted: 10/5/2013 4:28:53 AM
"I think Fitz outplays ASmith, not by much but Smith may make the crucial TO while Fitz manages the game better..."

This line was interesting to me.  The opposite seems more likely.

I think Smith outplays Fitz, but not by much but Fitz may make the crucial TO while Smith manages the game better.

Look up the interception/fumble stats for the qbs.  Smith wins.


quote
habs1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
habs1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 226
Location:
#20
Posted: 10/5/2013 7:52:27 AM
I agree  droz. I like all your bets except Tenn.I will take Smith anyday.over Fitz. I hope your others come in.
quote
tuco send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair |
tuco
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 122
Location:
#21
Posted: 10/5/2013 10:39:27 AM
Hey, b2w, good to see you getting your grinta back. 
You seem to be tilting a little as of late, so perhaps it's a good idea to tighten your game a for a few rounds. What would you say your top 3 plays are? 

I'm pretty sure bears will lose (they are about to go on one of those 2 out of 5-6 runs) 
quote
Mimi_Baby send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Mimi_Baby
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 139
Location: Ontario
#22
Posted: 10/5/2013 11:04:54 AM

what a Great write up ...thank you for sharing - I'm with you on, Cincy, Dallas, Alt, Hous Indy.... well I guess I could have just said "I'm with you" :)

all the best!

quote
Mimi_Baby send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Mimi_Baby
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 139
Location: Ontario
#23
Posted: 10/5/2013 11:05:08 AM

what a Great write up ...thank you for sharing - I'm with you on, Cincy, Dallas, Alt, Hous Indy.... well I guess I could have just said "I'm with you" :)

all the best!

quote
AutoPilot
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AutoPilot
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 669
Location:
#24
Posted: 10/5/2013 3:34:50 PM
Tease Denver & the Over it's been bank for the last 4 weeks..
quote
DrHuckleberry send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
DrHuckleberry
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 44
Location: Texas
#25
Posted: 10/5/2013 4:18:39 PM
I like the Cincy, Indy, Tennessee, Atlanta and Houston picks.  Not sure that I trust Baltimore on the road and I am very weary of Dallas.  I think that Peyton Manning is all too familiar with how Monte Kiffen runs his defense - Tony Dungy basically ran the same scheme in Indy after learning defense from Kiffen in TB.   
Good Luck though - I think you come out  this week.
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.