Posted: 10/4/2013 5:11:39 PM
Wk 4 was a WIN for the Good Guys! Lets keep up that momentum....
I obviously cant count it towards my record here, but I was lucky enough to have chosen Cleveland -4.5 lastnight, quite the mess of a game due to injuries but I believe if Hoyer & EJ Manuel had played all 4Qs, the Browns still Win by a TD+....
Week 5 Picks:
Cinci -1.5 vs New England
Lastwk was tough on Cinci, coming off an emotional Win vs GB, then playing a tough Division opponent, I was all over Clev but I even said, if NE Wins and Cin loses, ill be on Cinci. So I am, and I think their Defense will get up and stifle NE. (Laying 2 Units)
Indy +2.5 vs Seattle
Seattle is very good but they are beatable on the road. Only problem is that the Colts have played better away from home. This is a statement game for them, if they win this game vs who a lot of ppl see as the best NFC team, they'll move to 4-1 & become "for real". I faded Seattle lastwk and won by the hook, I think their comeback Win lastwk will have them vulnerable & the Colts have the Offensive pieces to score vs Seattle s stout D & Secondary. The Colts showed vs SF that they can bang with the bangers and play physical football, they aren't just a finesse team and they'll prove it again vs Seattle. (Laying 2 Units)
Tennessee +3.5 vs KC
This one was tough bc I believed in KC before this season but I also believed in Tennessee being better as well. I just think KC is similar to Seattle, where their Homefield advantage is so huge, the Road is where theyre vulnerable. Fitzpatrick isn't such a huge dropoff from Locker, other than mobility and Tenns a running team anyways. I think Fitz outplays ASmith, not by much but Smith may make the crucial TO while Fitz manages the game better, both are "game managers" but I believe Fitz will play better. (Laying 2 Units)
Baltimore +3.5 @ Miami
I originally "leaned" towards Miami but after digging deeper, I really like Baltimore now, at least enough to bet on them. Miami did show me something vs NO but they may have also tipped their hand. A savvy HC like Harbaugh may not have the same pieces as NO so he cant exploit them the same, but I think his gameplan will be enough to Win. Losing lastwk was embarrassing to Baltimore and I think they 'right the ship' vs a possibly overrated Dolphins team. I'd take the Ravens ML but the 3.5 is a bonus! (Laying 2 Units)
Dallas +7.5 vs Denver
Obviously Denver is red-hot right now and maybe jumping on the streak is smarter than betting against it, but I really like this spot for Dallas. I remember in like 2006, the Colts were 9-0 going into Dallas ONLY laying 1.5 and everyone thought I was insane saying that Indy was such a sucker bet, but needless to say, Indy left 9-1. Obviously this line isn't a "sucker bet" bc laying a TD in Dallas is never an easy cover but I think Dallas has a real shot to Win outright but will ultimately come up just short. Now I know usually the team who Wins, covers like 80% of the time, but I'm still on it. I "Like" the Dallas ML but I really like the 7.5! Dallas was in a tough spot lastwk going into a legit SD team whos record wasn't reflecting how well they'd played thus far. Im not saying Denver couldn't stay hot and torch Dallas, im just saying I think if they win, its a FG game... (Laying 2 Units)
Atlanta -9.5 vs NYJ
Atlanta is gonna destroy the Jets on MNF in my humble opinion. This Jets team has played VERY WELL to this point, but Atlanta @ Home is one of the NFCs best. Other than the fact that the Jets 2 Losses were on the road, they're about to go into one of their famous "tail-spins". This is how I script it, Jets hang in early with their D and Running game controlling the clock, but no matter when it happen, they will go into a hole IE. 10-14pts and Geno will try and do "too much". Geno Smith has showed flashes but hes turning the ball over WAY too much. He's also playing with a chip on his shoulder after being passed up in the draft and will try and "defy" his doubters on PrimeTime, problem is, he isn't that good yet. It may only be a 7pt lead but when Rex asks Smith to pass, he will force some things and play way above his head. ATL is probably good for 3 TOs and 1 Pick-6... (Laying 4 Units)
I know all my plays are 2u, other than ATL being 4u. No reasoning, just cant seem to quantify my fav play of those games. I obviously like ATL a lot, but the remainders are all solid plays!
If u dig yourself into a hole, though I NEVER condone it, feel free to CHASE on ATLANTA! I do like them that much!
PS. I may add a 1u play or two, not sure yet, still just 'liking' plays such as NYG, AZ or SF, nothing I like enough to bet though....
BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!!!
THOSE WITH ME!!!
THOSE AGAINST ME!!!