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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Lines dictates the game....
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#1
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:28:36 PM
I always feel like the lines dictates the game, and not the other way around. Way too many games end up being won just around the spread even tho the games are way way off the spread if u look playwise. 

its like all games are scripted, like literrally scripted, thats why it takes so long in between plays to set it up etc and that they have have 3 chances if they mess up so it ends out exactly like they want it to be. This is why i never bet on the NFL anymore. NEVER. And this has actually meant that i hate watching it too... coz i feel like they play "after the lines". So many games are very very very close to the spread, and i know that books are sharp, but it shouldnt be like books are like over-sharp, it feels like books are controlling the lines and not the game controlling the game. For example, funny how Ravens won oddly with EXACTLY those 8 points. 

I stopped betting NFL 1 year ago coz i felt like it was just getting too much with all this. But i always look at lines before a game and then i know what to expect. For example, before this week i predicted; Saints gonna win easy and Detroit are gonna win easy. Because Bucs looked like garbage the first week, couldnt even beat Jets and they looked really really bad. On the other hand, Saints looked good beating Falcons in what i consider a close game pre-hand. So i think Saints shouldnt have any problems winning with 2 touchdowns here. I know its a divisional game, but still in a spot like this Saints shouldnt have too many problems, they are simply just better and stronger. But when i saw this line..... I just knew something were up, i just knew Saints wouldnt totally blow them out of the field. Saints lead 13-7 now, so they can still cover the spread yeah, but thats not my point, my point is it seems like something is holding them back from smacking their fools, and it seems like it is this line that is doing it... Same thing is how i felt about Lions, i think they would beat Cardinals with 2 touchdowns as well, Lions looked good in week 1 against vikings despite a bad start of the game, and Cardinals looked horrible against Rams. So i thought to my self when i saw the line being even money... Something is up here.... Lions get ahead with 8 points, but they keep blowing field goals and missing them all over the place, and all calls going in the way of Cardinals. 

I know books are sharp, but they shouldnt be over sharp if u know what i mean, what kind of fun is there if we know the outcome of the game prehand or what kind of game it will be? Like, if the line is even money then we know that it will not be a blow out or that it will be atleast somewhat close? It just ruins the fun and entertainment for me that its almost dictated before the game has started what will happen. 

But to me, following the Lions game AFTER i saw the line just made me think that something fishy was up when lines were like that. 

I know Saints can still win like 20-7, but it still just seems wierd that the game is played like the line says its supposed to be played. 

Like in the Lions game, Lions should have won this game with 2-3 touchdowns, but we KNOW it wont happen when the line is like this. These "Too good to be true" lines just never wins. Im glad i dont bet, otherwise i would have been fucked over great time, (even tho i would have bet on Bills, lol - so i guess it would have evened out) but i consider starting to bet again and then i just bet on whatever seems too good to be true. Like today, Saints looked too good to be true, so i take Bucs with the spread + a few extra points to be sure, same thing with cardinals, take them + a few extra points to be sure and then just take it from there. 
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#2
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:29:29 PM
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#3
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:32:31 PM
Whats ur opinion about it Bet? U think that games are just being played and have nothing to do with Vegas or anything?  
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#4
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:36:13 PM
Lol. 2 points win, just exactly outside the spread 
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#5
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:37:34 PM
lines lines lines.
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Posted: 9/15/2013 9:00:03 PM
I am a 66 year old guy and been on "both sides" of wagering for over 45 years.....So, I will speak from experience...And plenty of it.....Losing by half points at the end much, much more than u can ever imagine....I could go back and name you games, players, lines etc, that WERE ALL SHADY....You, Boston Celtic, are ahead of things already, but I don't know your age,,,,And indeed, IT IS CONTROLLED....If  you owned a multi-billion dollar business,like the NFL is, would you not want to have control over it??.....OF COURSE!.....THAT is why things are the way they are....If anyone tells you differently, THEY BELIEVE IN THE TOOTH FAIRY.....I once bet  game years ago taking "over" 35.5 as the total in a Sunday afternoon game....It was 35-0 at the half!....I was all smiles, butttttt, no score in the second half...Several drives inside the ten ended in fumbles....Hmmmm....Plus 4 missed field goals.....YOUR BEST BET IS TO DO WHAT YOU DO, AND IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, GO OPPOSITE,,,,I have made and lost fortunes in the NFL.....If you took the gambling out of it, which is impossible, you would drop viewer watch by 70-80 percent....VEGAS is very, very smart.....IN THE LONG RUN, 94 PERCENT OF BETTORS LOSE AND "CHASE!".....I sort of do what you do, plus I have a guy who is a born loser, and I go opposite....Today, he LOVED N.O.....SEE!!!!!!!!.....I made 2 plays today, that one plus DENVER....Money dropped line way down on NYG at home....Many on forums, plus my pal, lovedddddddd the Giants.....I'm 2-0, and done till next week....I am not saying that every game etc, is controlled, buttttt,  many, many are, and you're on the right track in what you see.....Best of luck....
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Posted: 9/15/2013 9:30:34 PM
So....the only lesson learned is that week 2 games are difficult to wager and make lines for. Not enough data in a very even(talent-wise) league. It's that simple. It's not a conspiracy, though many on this site continue to staunchly think so. It's week 2, perhaps you should consider this very important fact.
 
Do you think the NE-Jets game was fixed? Or perhaps it is more likely that bettors knew that Brady, without any targets, would struggle against a divisional foe who knows him well? 

How about Vikings-Bears? Everyone knew Cutler would throw a beautiful sideline/endzone TD pass, right at the end to win the game but not cover, right? A line of -6.5 was a sketchy number at home, obviously? Fixed, without a doubt. I am stupid for not seeing this.

The Chargers obviously were waiting for Chip Kelly's onsides kick when they were down 27-23 with under 5 minutes left, right? Clearly fixed. How did I not know. I am dumb.

The Bills were supposed to not only cover, but win the game outright in the last 30 seconds. Obviously fixed. Why didn't I know?

The Titans knew they were going to drive 99 yards to take a 1 point lead on the 4th and then get a pick 6 on the next drive to go up 24-16. Then they gave up a TD and 2 point conversion. They subsuequently had a 3 and out and played with FG kicker Bullock's mind on 3 occasions(who missed the game FG off the left upright) to send it to OT. Where they would eventuallyose by 6. Fixed, fixed, fixed. garbage, I am dumb.

Oh yeah, clearly, the Cowboys were meant to cover the +3.5, isn't it obvious?

The Cardinals knew they would be down 21-19 and get a TD late in the 4th. Scripted to perfection.

Finally, the Bucs absolutely knew they would return an 85 yard INT for a TD in the 4th to cover the spread. I should have known.


Most dudes on here are silly.





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Posted: 9/15/2013 10:20:12 PM
No mellow, u r silly and quite gullible....I said "NOT" all of them are controlled....Read my post again....Certainly there are some things that you can't control....And you may have posted a couple....However, in the long run, many are controlled....Let's swith leagues a bit....Tom Doheny, the disgraced nba official was sentenced to serve time....Giving inside info and making phantom calls....He was to name others, but his behind knew better or he would end up in never land....In college, the Toledo was investigated twice in recent years for shaving in both football and basketball.....Years ago, Boston College players were calling off bets to a big real estate bookie....Also, a Northwestern HB admitted to fumbling on purpose twice inside the five yard line....I could name you tons more....And the NFL is the ultimate in betting....Why do 94 percent lose?.....IT IS A FACT, AND WAY BACK TO THE FIRST SUPERBOWL, PLAYERS ON BALTIMORE, A 17 POINT FAVORITE, PUBLICLY ADMITTED IT WAS FIXED TO BRING THE AFC ON PAR WITH THE NFC...NEW YORK JETS, WITH JOE NAMATH BATHING AT A BEACH, JUST LAID BACK AND SAID---"WE WILL WIN OUTRIGHT"....AND THEY DID!....So have things changed?....Hell no, they've gotten worse!..Here's good one my man....Years ago PennState started out as a 17 pt fav. and the over-under was 58...The line loved to 18.5....So, the final in the Rose bowl, was 38-20....RIGHT ON THE NUMBER AND THE TOTAL....You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than this happening....I could start on tons of fixes in the NFL....All of them?....Of course not!....But moreso than anything that is so called on the level....I've seen it all, and if u keep wagering long enough you'll get your fill too!....But keep believing in what u do, and your wallet will be much lighter....IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAYERS, COACHES, WEATHER ETC.....IT  IS WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN IN SELECTED GAMES....DREAM ON, AND HOPEFULLY YOU WILL SEE....I know A former Division 1 QB, years ago that my son knew, and he said before every game, he knew if they'd cover or not!!!!!Bullshit?.....NOPE, THE TRUTH....So, you're entitled to your opinion, but I KNOW from over 40 years what is going on!...Good luck!
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Posted: 9/15/2013 10:20:12 PM
No mellow, u r silly and quite gullible....I said "NOT" all of them are controlled....Read my post again....Certainly there are some things that you can't control....And you may have posted a couple....However, in the long run, many are controlled....Let's swith leagues a bit....Tom Doheny, the disgraced nba official was sentenced to serve time....Giving inside info and making phantom calls....He was to name others, but his behind knew better or he would end up in never land....In college, the Toledo was investigated twice in recent years for shaving in both football and basketball.....Years ago, Boston College players were calling off bets to a big real estate bookie....Also, a Northwestern HB admitted to fumbling on purpose twice inside the five yard line....I could name you tons more....And the NFL is the ultimate in betting....Why do 94 percent lose?.....IT IS A FACT, AND WAY BACK TO THE FIRST SUPERBOWL, PLAYERS ON BALTIMORE, A 17 POINT FAVORITE, PUBLICLY ADMITTED IT WAS FIXED TO BRING THE AFC ON PAR WITH THE NFC...NEW YORK JETS, WITH JOE NAMATH BATHING AT A BEACH, JUST LAID BACK AND SAID---"WE WILL WIN OUTRIGHT"....AND THEY DID!....So have things changed?....Hell no, they've gotten worse!..Here's good one my man....Years ago PennState started out as a 17 pt fav. and the over-under was 58...The line loved to 18.5....So, the final in the Rose bowl, was 38-20....RIGHT ON THE NUMBER AND THE TOTAL....You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than this happening....I could start on tons of fixes in the NFL....All of them?....Of course not!....But moreso than anything that is so called on the level....I've seen it all, and if u keep wagering long enough you'll get your fill too!....But keep believing in what u do, and your wallet will be much lighter....IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAYERS, COACHES, WEATHER ETC.....IT  IS WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN IN SELECTED GAMES....DREAM ON, AND HOPEFULLY YOU WILL SEE....I know A former Division 1 QB, years ago that my son knew, and he said before every game, he knew if they'd cover or not!!!!!Bullshit?.....NOPE, THE TRUTH....So, you're entitled to your opinion, but I KNOW from over 40 years what is going on!...Good luck!
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Posted: 9/15/2013 10:35:06 PM
I agree it is scary how many games are played down so close to/around the spread. However, while there has been many shady things occur in the league I do not think it is "scripted." Too many variables for that....

If you want a sport where I'm pretty positive is influenced by the league and their referees, that's the NBA.
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Posted: 9/15/2013 10:35:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by inthetank:

No mellow, u r silly and quite gullible....I said "NOT" all of them are controlled....Read my post again....Certainly there are some things that you can't control....And you may have posted a couple....However, in the long run, many are controlled....Let's swith leagues a bit....Tom Doheny, the disgraced nba official was sentenced to serve time....Giving inside info and making phantom calls....He was to name others, but his behind knew better or he would end up in never land....In college, the Toledo was investigated twice in recent years for shaving in both football and basketball.....Years ago, Boston College players were calling off bets to a big real estate bookie....Also, a Northwestern HB admitted to fumbling on purpose twice inside the five yard line....I could name you tons more....And the NFL is the ultimate in betting....Why do 94 percent lose?.....IT IS A FACT, AND WAY BACK TO THE FIRST SUPERBOWL, PLAYERS ON BALTIMORE, A 17 POINT FAVORITE, PUBLICLY ADMITTED IT WAS FIXED TO BRING THE AFC ON PAR WITH THE NFC...NEW YORK JETS, WITH JOE NAMATH BATHING AT A BEACH, JUST LAID BACK AND SAID---"WE WILL WIN OUTRIGHT"....AND THEY DID!....So have things changed?....Hell no, they've gotten worse!..Here's good one my man....Years ago PennState started out as a 17 pt fav. and the over-under was 58...The line loved to 18.5....So, the final in the Rose bowl, was 38-20....RIGHT ON THE NUMBER AND THE TOTAL....You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than this happening....I could start on tons of fixes in the NFL....All of them?....Of course not!....But moreso than anything that is so called on the level....I've seen it all, and if u keep wagering long enough you'll get your fill too!....But keep believing in what u do, and your wallet will be much lighter....IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAYERS, COACHES, WEATHER ETC.....IT  IS WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN IN SELECTED GAMES....DREAM ON, AND HOPEFULLY YOU WILL SEE....I know A former Division 1 QB, years ago that my son knew, and he said before every game, he knew if they'd cover or not!!!!!Bullshit?.....NOPE, THE TRUTH....So, you're entitled to your opinion, but I KNOW from over 40 years what is going on!...Good luck!


Age does not impart wisdom, my friend. A false maxim. Good luck to you.
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#12
Posted: 9/15/2013 10:39:31 PM
Line, lines, everywhere a line....effing up the bettin, breakin my mind...do this, don't bet that....can't you read the lines???  
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Posted: 9/15/2013 10:44:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TimTowner:

Line, lines, everywhere a line....effing up the bettin, breakin my mind...do this, don't bet that....can't you read the lines???  

The 5 man Electrical Band had a nice song with that one. Though inthetank likely is completely unaware of your astute and on point musical reference.
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:08:39 PM
Yup I had tb second half once I realized saints were "struggling" but once u think they are rigged and think u have an edge the game suddenly is kosher 

Advice. If u are going to bet never bet props parlays or be cute with adjusted lines take ur 50/50 and that's it 
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:19:50 PM

NFL lines are too sharp. 

Playing 2 team teasers is better than a coin flip.
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:37:45 PM
 TRUE MELLOW...AGE DOES "NOT" IMPART WISDOM!!!!.....I AGREE!..IT'S TRUE IN MANY CASES... HOWEVER OVER 40 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE(THAT'S THE KEY WORD!!), AND BEING  "VERY OBSERVANT"CERTAINLY DOES!...Is experience the best teacher, or age?.....We learn by DOING!....And I've done it...As far as that fool and his song, and you're reference to me as not being "astute" enough to comprehend..DO NOT TRY TO INSULT ME!... "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones!!...So don't throw them at me....I am willing to bet "what I know and wager" against you and any amount you want..Ditto..Got that rookie?....Your writing, thinking and vocabulary are shrouded by your unwillingness to accept what is sometimes the obvious and leave a lot to be desired!....And to the "lines" guy--"Maybe that's what you need, a few LINES to clear your foggy and pretentious mind",.. If indeed you have one !!!!!!!!
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:46:14 PM
No bro games arnt played around lines, if you knew how lines are made you wouldnt be saying such. Keep up the good fight.
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:48:37 PM
good god...pick with ur head, not ur heart
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:50:13 PM
Really bro? Thurs night 3-4 yrs ago undeafted colts against winless titans spread is 2.5 

colts 
win by 2 , crazy how that happens...... 
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Posted: 9/15/2013 11:53:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by inthetank:

 TRUE MELLOW...AGE DOES "NOT" IMPART WISDOM!!!!.....I AGREE!..IT'S TRUE IN MANY CASES... HOWEVER OVER 40 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE(THAT'S THE KEY WORD!!), AND BEING  "VERY OBSERVANT"CERTAINLY DOES!...Is experience the best teacher, or age?.....We learn by DOING!....And I've done it...As far as that fool and his song, and you're reference to me as not being "astute" enough to comprehend..DO NOT TRY TO INSULT ME!... "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones!!...So don't throw them at me....I am willing to bet "what I know and wager" against you and any amount you want..Ditto..Got that rookie?....Your writing, thinking and vocabulary are shrouded by your unwillingness to accept what is sometimes the obvious and leave a lot to be desired!....And to the "lines" guy--"Maybe that's what you need, a few LINES to clear your foggy and pretentious mind",.. If indeed you have one !!!!!!!!


Rookie? Pretentious?(referring to your commentary about another poster)? 

You need to recalibrate.

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#21
Posted: 9/15/2013 11:54:58 PM
Bro....If you know something up there about those lines, how come you did not wagering on Tampa Bay +3.5 or Arizona + 1.5 ????....but Why you bet on New Orleans and Detroit...?????...maybe you are not comfortable holding these two teams money!!!
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#22
Posted: 9/15/2013 11:58:44 PM
feel like colts game was influenced today


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Posted: 9/16/2013 12:06:38 AM
This thread is so true.

I've been betting for only a year and have already caught wind. If I see a line that is fishy I'm taking the opposite from now on.
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Posted: 9/16/2013 12:07:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaboons:

Really bro? Thurs night 3-4 yrs ago undeafted colts against winless titans spread is 2.5 

colts 
win by 2 , crazy how that happens...... 
Why are you lying, the Colts were 6-6 that year heading into that game.
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Posted: 9/16/2013 12:08:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

Why are you lying, the Colts were 6-6 that year heading into that game.
And the Titans were 5-7.
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