If you read my first NFL post from thursday night I hope you took my advice, if you didn't I hope you were on the right side anyway. Like I said I don't NFL much, so fade me, lol. Here are two plays I really like today and a few leans. I'm taking two favorites today, and in the NFL that usually spells negative income, but I think the angles prove enough.
Denver vs NY Giants- Afternoon game in NY, Denver -4 Currently.
Why Denver will cover- If you don't have a good running game in the NFL, you must have a good defense to be competitive. If you don't have a good defense, you might as well hope for mistakes from the opponent. If your opponent is led by Peyton Manning, you better pray for mistakes, but those won't happen enough for the Giants today. Peyton will play with the Giants early, taking what is given to him and exploiting the weaknesses all over the field. While the broncos don't possess an explosive run, the ability of Peyton to hurry up and slow down and distribute to all of his targets allows the run to be effective enough, and wears down defenses, all the while giving the Broncos defense much needed rest on the road. The game will be close at half, just like most Broncos games are, but after adjustments by the most cerebral QB of all time, the game will be over by the end of the third quarter. We don't even need to go into the Giants inabilities, all we need to study is Peyton. You must be on all cylinders when playing against him, and the Giants are running on only four cylinders today. Broncos win 35-21.
New Orleans vs Tampa- Afternoon game in Tampa, NO -3
Why NO covers- Without the home field advantage, tampa is +6 on a neutral field? I don't think so. Will the heat effect the saints? Yes, but it will also effect the Bucs as much or more. The reason the heat won't be a deciding factor on the saints is because of diversity. Brees has twice as many, maybe three times as many talented ball handlers to distribute to as does Freeman, and that is if Freeman can get the ball to them efficiently. All talent aside, the determining factor in today's game won't be talent or location, it will be won by Sean Peyton, or better said lost by Schiano. The Bucs are one of the most penalized offensive teams in the NFL, which matters only because putting Freeman in long down situations presses him to make plays he can't always make, especially when he only has one true target in the wide receiver corp. Doug Martin will have a decent game, but the Bucs need exceptional and they wont get it. I think Schiano's lack of time management and complete lack of understanding that he has to manage an NFL game, not a college one, will be the ultimate downfall of the Bucs today. Saints cover and win 27-14.
Leans:
Bengals -6.5 (write up tomorrow, actually should be a huge play)
Dallas +3 (Dallas' weakness is secondary, Cheifs can't exploit that)
Raiders -5 (Janakowski kicks 4 FG's, raiders win 12-6)
Thanks for reading, and remember if you don't do well today, +200 or better soccer is the best bet anywhere in sports, so don't sweat it, just switch. Good luck to all.