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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Cowboys +3 on road to KC???
Wilk23 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/10/2013 4:23:45 AM
Someone explain 
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#2
Posted: 9/10/2013 4:47:44 AM
They lose in this spot.  Was hoping they would be favored, not as appealing now.
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#3
Posted: 9/10/2013 4:49:31 AM
Try not to over think it, it isn't about talent as much as the situation.  
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#4
Posted: 9/10/2013 6:57:50 AM
Sure I'll chime in.

First off, I'm been betting for several years but $$ wise and quantity wise probably average in comparison to most on this board. I'm a lifelong chiefs fan even though I'm from Hawaii. I've been fortunate to have a winning record overall in capping over four years but just by a modest amount, although in NFL i definitely have the highest success rate betting for/against the Chiefs.

Also having said that, last week was the biggest play I've made in a while with the Chiefs (took the ML as well as the spread) and probably won't make another bet like that all year. I loved that game probably a month in advance and it didn't disappoint.

Anyway on to your question about the Cowboys:

I'm a little surprised by the line as well, and i think you're likely to see the line end up closer to +1.5/2 so if you like the Cowboys I'd take them now.

Defense:
In my opinion Kansas City has a top ten defense if they stay healthy. People can laugh at that if they wish but they believe that as well and the whole team has a chip on their shoulder. They may have the best LB core in the NFL, 3 pro bowlers, DJ is a solid MLB who is a tackle machine and can also make big plays, Hali is an elite pass rusher and solid against the run he also had a crazy offseason (trained in MMA, best shape he's been in his career) and then there's Justin Houston who is quickly developing into a young stud, I believe his upside exceeds Hali and he had three sacks last week. We have a Pro Bowl caliber CB in Flowers, one of the best Safeties in the league in Berry, and the BIGGEST story overlooked right now is Poe as our DT, he's improved so much and absolutely destroyed Jacksonville's line last week. Our biggest issue last year was pass protection but we signed two new starters in the secondary, Dunta Robinson from ATL and Sean Smith from MIA.

I believe this defense will create pressure on Romo, and contain Murray for the most part. They match up well with Witten because Berry and DJ can both cover. Dez Bryant is my concern, Flowers is an amazing CB but he's short so I see the chiefs probably throwing the taller Sean Smith on him from time to time. I think the Cowboys may see success through a couple of big plays, Chiefs defense is aggressive so there's a much higher risk the Cowboys break off a big play from one of their stars than Jax did.

Special Teams:
Coach Toub has made a huge impact on our special teams. In the preseason we ran back three touchdowns and blocked a kick. Even though we had a punt blocked in week one, special teams should be a bright spot. Colquitt has been one of the best in the NFL throughout his career, Succop is a decent and reliable K. We have multiple guys with return abilities.

Offense:
Here's where things get tricky. Having Andy Reid and Alex Smith let me tell you is a huge improvement from last year however, Smith and Bowe have shown 0 chemistry thus far. Smith consistently checks the ball down but has shown a nice deep ball the few times he's thrown it. Charles is the key to the offense right now as well as the TEs/Slots getting involved.  I think throughout the season the Chiefs will become better here but right now if there's a reason they drop the game to Dallas I think it will be the offense going inconsistent and then the defense being left on the field. 

Arrowhead:
Final factor and this is the X-Factor. Chiefs Nation is a buzz, week one couldn't have gone better. When you talk about home field advantage most people talk about Seattle next week hosting SF, but after that game I'd argue this is going to be the second craziest stadium in the league. The players have confidence, the fans will be loud, pride is back in KC and arrowhead is a scary place when that happens. 

Overall:
My final thoughts, at this point I'm leaning towards a no play, only because I can make valid arguments for each side. It's hard to lay points to a Dallas team that offensively should be much more polished than the Chiefs, but it's hard to bet against arrowhead and the product on defense the chiefs will field this year. 


I hope that helps! to the average bettor they probably can't understand this line or see it as a trap, but these are the reasons I feel the line is the way it is. Best of luck.


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#5
Posted: 9/10/2013 7:30:57 AM
Dallas Fan here, I will not touch a side, I would lean Dallas +3.  I like that Waters is most likely going to come in and replace Bernardeau who had a rough game vs the Giants.  I think Romo will have more luck passing this week and the Cowboys will want to keep running the ball with more consistency.  Dunbar might be activated this week if he practices well which allows for various change of pace plays, maybe using him in the pistol offense.  

The injuries worry me, not as much Romo or Bryant but more so with Claiborne.  Our secondary is suspect and I believe it can be exploited.  Our defensive line played very very well against the Giants which, I hope, was not a one game wonder.

My pick if any will be the under 46.5

Good Luck
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#6
Posted: 9/10/2013 8:18:29 AM
Whatever the validity of the line, it seems to be one that will lead to lots of money on Dallas, especially after a big Sunday night win. I am not one for conspiracy theories, but it makes you think that Vegas really likes kc
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#7
Posted: 9/10/2013 9:41:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by iamnotpeterose:

Whatever the validity of the line, it seems to be one that will lead to lots of money on Dallas, especially after a big Sunday night win. I am not one for conspiracy theories, but it makes you think that Vegas really likes kc

Almost, it will lead a lot of unknowledgeable to bet on Dallas but it is a very good line to keep sharp bettors from betting KC.

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#8
Posted: 9/10/2013 9:46:31 AM
KC is a solid up and coming team with a qb who doesnt make mistakes. dallas is the same mediocre team it has been in recent years. nothing different.  kc wins
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#9
Posted: 9/10/2013 10:05:50 AM
I do not know the numbers but I have a friend who swears by betting against teams that win the previous based on turnovers. In other words Dallas barely squeaked by despite having 6 turnovers, 2 of which were returned for TDs. The reality is that this was a fluke and they will not get 6 turnovers again. IMO this artificially inflates their value this week. When you combine that with the typical Dallas bump in line this adds up to a decent play on KC IMO.


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#10
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:05:21 PM
Add in the fact Dallas is a different team on the road
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#11
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:10:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SudburyDowns:

Dallas Fan here, I will not touch a side, I would lean Dallas +3.  I like that Waters is most likely going to come in and replace Bernardeau who had a rough game vs the Giants.  I think Romo will have more luck passing this week and the Cowboys will want to keep running the ball with more consistency.  Dunbar might be activated this week if he practices well which allows for various change of pace plays, maybe using him in the pistol offense.  

The injuries worry me, not as much Romo or Bryant but more so with Claiborne.  Our secondary is suspect and I believe it can be exploited.  Our defensive line played very very well against the Giants which, I hope, was not a one game wonder.

My pick if any will be the under 46.5

Good Luck


Chiefs tough @ home. Dallas anaemic offense. Still not sold on Chiefs offense after last weeks match up
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#12
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:28:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vaas187:



Chiefs tough @ home. Dallas anaemic offense. Still not sold on Chiefs offense after last weeks match up


or chiefs D...
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#13
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:38:29 PM

Dallas off a Big divsional rivalry game vs a team they hadn't beat at home under the lights.....they won't be able to sustain the same energy next week IMO

 

 

GL brutha

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#14
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:39:58 PM
I really like the Chiefs here. To me this is the type of game where you take the favorite. The Chiefs defensive line is quite formidable, and will pressure Romo all day. I do believe the cowboys will put up some points on Sunday, however they will have an extremely hard time going into Arrowhead stadium and the sea of red fans. Andy Reid has their team playing error free football right now, and I expect that to carry over into this weeks matchup. I do believe that Andy Reid has a hard time adjusting to opposing team's game plans when behind early in a game, but he now he has inherited a very good defense in KC. Reid also has experience and success  in facing Dallas twice a year with an overall record of 17-12 against the boys. I predict the Chiefs win by 7, 31-24
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#15
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:57:27 PM
one of the best home field stadiums in the league in my view, great fans.....you play KC or you don't play this one.....I'm on KC.
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#16
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:09:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cambyspree99:

KC is a solid up and coming team with a qb who doesnt make mistakes. dallas is the same mediocre team it has been in recent years. nothing different.  kc wins


ha yeah coming from a giants fan.... what was that? oh sh.it the giants just turned the ball over again
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#17
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:12:07 PM
you can never get to high on dallas, sure they beat the giants, but they did the same thing last year and then laid an egg in week 2.

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#18
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:12:16 PM
with that said id lean kc and the under
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#19
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:28:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JBone_Texas:

They lose in this spot.  Was hoping they would be favored, not as appealing now.

yeah, that would be pretty sweet, or even KC at a low ML would be great

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#20
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:52:59 PM
KC is the play here. Chiefs did exactly what they were supposed to do against a bad jaguars team while the Cowboys played the giants and werent too impressive, almost losing that game in the 4th quarter. Expecting a big game from Charles.  Going to wait on this line, try to get KC at around -2 even though i see them winning a 7-10
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#21
Posted: 9/10/2013 4:41:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AceRothstein27:

KC is the play here. Chiefs did exactly what they were supposed to do against a bad jaguars team while the Cowboys played the giants and werent too impressive, almost losing that game in the 4th quarter. Expecting a big game from Charles.  Going to wait on this line, try to get KC at around -2 even though i see them winning a 7-10

exactly!

a good team demolishes weak teams and thats what they did. kc to win their division. yes, over denver!
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#22
Posted: 9/10/2013 4:49:48 PM
Opened at 2.5, 75% on Dallas, line shot to -3.

Hammering KC.  
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#23
Posted: 9/10/2013 5:14:15 PM
i can't believe 75% is on dallas.  of course, it's tuesday so maybe someone took that number after the first 4 bets.  i'd be shocked if it's less than 50% on the chiefs here. 
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#24
Posted: 9/10/2013 5:17:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

i can't believe 75% is on dallas.  of course, it's tuesday so maybe someone took that number after the first 4 bets.  i'd be shocked if it's less than 50% on the chiefs here. 

Never underestimate huge public teams like the Cowboys.

Bigger fan base and KC has almost no clout.  Plus, Cowboys off emotional win, got their fans feeling good.
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#25
Posted: 9/10/2013 5:21:45 PM
i'd love to see this at 2.5 but i doubt it goes back there. 
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