|Sure I'll chime in.
Posted: 9/10/2013 6:57:50 AM
First off, I'm been betting for several years but $$ wise and quantity wise probably average in comparison to most on this board. I'm a lifelong chiefs fan even though I'm from Hawaii. I've been fortunate to have a winning record overall in capping over four years but just by a modest amount, although in NFL i definitely have the highest success rate betting for/against the Chiefs.
Also having said that, last week was the biggest play I've made in a while with the Chiefs (took the ML as well as the spread) and probably won't make another bet like that all year. I loved that game probably a month in advance and it didn't disappoint.
Anyway on to your question about the Cowboys:
I'm a little surprised by the line as well, and i think you're likely to see the line end up closer to +1.5/2 so if you like the Cowboys I'd take them now.
In my opinion Kansas City has a top ten defense if they stay healthy. People can laugh at that if they wish but they believe that as well and the whole team has a chip on their shoulder. They may have the best LB core in the NFL, 3 pro bowlers, DJ is a solid MLB who is a tackle machine and can also make big plays, Hali is an elite pass rusher and solid against the run he also had a crazy offseason (trained in MMA, best shape he's been in his career) and then there's Justin Houston who is quickly developing into a young stud, I believe his upside exceeds Hali and he had three sacks last week. We have a Pro Bowl caliber CB in Flowers, one of the best Safeties in the league in Berry, and the BIGGEST story overlooked right now is Poe as our DT, he's improved so much and absolutely destroyed Jacksonville's line last week. Our biggest issue last year was pass protection but we signed two new starters in the secondary, Dunta Robinson from ATL and Sean Smith from MIA.
I believe this defense will create pressure on Romo, and contain Murray for the most part. They match up well with Witten because Berry and DJ can both cover. Dez Bryant is my concern, Flowers is an amazing CB but he's short so I see the chiefs probably throwing the taller Sean Smith on him from time to time. I think the Cowboys may see success through a couple of big plays, Chiefs defense is aggressive so there's a much higher risk the Cowboys break off a big play from one of their stars than Jax did.
Coach Toub has made a huge impact on our special teams. In the preseason we ran back three touchdowns and blocked a kick. Even though we had a punt blocked in week one, special teams should be a bright spot. Colquitt has been one of the best in the NFL throughout his career, Succop is a decent and reliable K. We have multiple guys with return abilities.
Here's where things get tricky. Having Andy Reid and Alex Smith let me tell you is a huge improvement from last year however, Smith and Bowe have shown 0 chemistry thus far. Smith consistently checks the ball down but has shown a nice deep ball the few times he's thrown it. Charles is the key to the offense right now as well as the TEs/Slots getting involved. I think throughout the season the Chiefs will become better here but right now if there's a reason they drop the game to Dallas I think it will be the offense going inconsistent and then the defense being left on the field.
Final factor and this is the X-Factor. Chiefs Nation is a buzz, week one couldn't have gone better. When you talk about home field advantage most people talk about Seattle next week hosting SF, but after that game I'd argue this is going to be the second craziest stadium in the league. The players have confidence, the fans will be loud, pride is back in KC and arrowhead is a scary place when that happens.
My final thoughts, at this point I'm leaning towards a no play, only because I can make valid arguments for each side. It's hard to lay points to a Dallas team that offensively should be much more polished than the Chiefs, but it's hard to bet against arrowhead and the product on defense the chiefs will field this year.
I hope that helps! to the average bettor they probably can't understand this line or see it as a trap, but these are the reasons I feel the line is the way it is. Best of luck.