He hasn't taken a single snap in the NFL and he's going to lead the team to 7 wins?
He is not even close to Russell Wilson or even Ryan Tannehill for that matter.
And if Sanchez is behind center you can forget it.
Does Vegas realize both guys are turnover machines and neither have a RB meaning they will be throwing and throwing often to a below average receiving core (without above average O-Line protection!!) ??? I could go on and on and on...
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Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:
I was shocked when I saw it that high.
It's ludicrous. Based on what: Geno Smith?
Really?
He hasn't taken a single snap in the NFL and he's going to lead the team to 7 wins?
He is not even close to Russell Wilson or even Ryan Tannehill for that matter.
And if Sanchez is behind center you can forget it.
Does Vegas realize both guys are turnover machines and neither have a RB meaning they will be throwing and throwing often to a below average receiving core (without above average O-Line protection!!) ??? I could go on and on and on...
Jets shouldn't have won as many games as they did last year. Only way they win this many games is if they install some gimmick offense that other teams can't adjust too ... don't see it happening with Rex.
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Jets shouldn't have won as many games as they did last year. Only way they win this many games is if they install some gimmick offense that other teams can't adjust too ... don't see it happening with Rex.
1. when i pick team totals, i never look at the schedule and try to pick wins and losses that way. it's hard ebnough to figure out how one team will do compared tio the market, but that analysis basically requires you to figure out how many teams will do against the market. plus, you never know who will be healthy and what a team's situation will be any given week.
that being said
2. i can't imagine a team with a more publicized clusterfuck of a team than the jets. as a result, of all of the teams and all of the total bets you can make, wouldn't you expect the jets under to have the least value.
3. to respond to your question, although the lists are far from completed, there are three teams likely to be on the preseason ClubDirt overrated list: pittsburgh (again), baltimore (again) and miami. there are possibly four teams that will be on the ClubDirt overrated list: cleveland, tennessee, oakland and tampa. so, that bodes well for the under if you do want to look at it that way.
4. as for the scheduling, the second half doesn't look too bad. we don't like miami much. they get them at home in december when it should be nice and cold and don't have to go to miami until week 17 when who knows who is still trying. they could sweep miami. basically, from nov 3 on, that schedule looks pretty good. i can see ending the year at 4-4 or even 5-3. if they start geno smith, i'm sure he'll be terrible but he is likely to get better and if he improves, it does look like the last several games are against teams that may be out of contention and just don't have the enthusiasm to deal with a qb like that.
i'm sure i could come up with more as we get closer to the season but my initial thought is i don't see much value here and i wouldn't pay more than -115 to bet this under. i don't think there is much margin for error. i don't like this division as much as in the past. i can see the jets being better than buffalo and miami.
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here are my thoughts.
1. when i pick team totals, i never look at the schedule and try to pick wins and losses that way. it's hard ebnough to figure out how one team will do compared tio the market, but that analysis basically requires you to figure out how many teams will do against the market. plus, you never know who will be healthy and what a team's situation will be any given week.
that being said
2. i can't imagine a team with a more publicized clusterfuck of a team than the jets. as a result, of all of the teams and all of the total bets you can make, wouldn't you expect the jets under to have the least value.
3. to respond to your question, although the lists are far from completed, there are three teams likely to be on the preseason ClubDirt overrated list: pittsburgh (again), baltimore (again) and miami. there are possibly four teams that will be on the ClubDirt overrated list: cleveland, tennessee, oakland and tampa. so, that bodes well for the under if you do want to look at it that way.
4. as for the scheduling, the second half doesn't look too bad. we don't like miami much. they get them at home in december when it should be nice and cold and don't have to go to miami until week 17 when who knows who is still trying. they could sweep miami. basically, from nov 3 on, that schedule looks pretty good. i can see ending the year at 4-4 or even 5-3. if they start geno smith, i'm sure he'll be terrible but he is likely to get better and if he improves, it does look like the last several games are against teams that may be out of contention and just don't have the enthusiasm to deal with a qb like that.
i'm sure i could come up with more as we get closer to the season but my initial thought is i don't see much value here and i wouldn't pay more than -115 to bet this under. i don't think there is much margin for error. i don't like this division as much as in the past. i can see the jets being better than buffalo and miami.
for the record, i'm not a jets fan. if anything, i'm a 49ers fan but i really don't care who wins each beyond the gambling angle.
ok, let me go through their schedule (which again, i never do when betting team totals)
TB L @ NE L Buff W @ Tenn L @ Atl L Pitt W NE L @ Cinc L NO W @ Buff L @ Blt L MIa W Oak W @Car W Clev L @ Mia L
ok, that's 6-10 in my very rough estimation. but i don't feel good about it so i don't like paying too much for under 6.5 you just never know about teams so i don't like playing low unders or high overs and paying extra because there's so little margin for error.
but would it surprise me if the team completely implodes and they go 4-12? not at all.
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for the record, i'm not a jets fan. if anything, i'm a 49ers fan but i really don't care who wins each beyond the gambling angle.
ok, let me go through their schedule (which again, i never do when betting team totals)
TB L @ NE L Buff W @ Tenn L @ Atl L Pitt W NE L @ Cinc L NO W @ Buff L @ Blt L MIa W Oak W @Car W Clev L @ Mia L
ok, that's 6-10 in my very rough estimation. but i don't feel good about it so i don't like paying too much for under 6.5 you just never know about teams so i don't like playing low unders or high overs and paying extra because there's so little margin for error.
but would it surprise me if the team completely implodes and they go 4-12? not at all.
stay tuned for the CLubDirt preseason predictions. last year's most overrated team was the lions and they went way under. last year's most underrated was Stl and they went over easily.*
*past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance
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stay tuned for the CLubDirt preseason predictions. last year's most overrated team was the lions and they went way under. last year's most underrated was Stl and they went over easily.*
*past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance
for the record, i'm not a jets fan. if anything, i'm a 49ers fan but i really don't care who wins each beyond the gambling angle.
ok, let me go through their schedule (which again, i never do when betting team totals)
TB L @ NE L Buff W @ Tenn L @ Atl L Pitt W NE L @ Cinc L NO W @ Buff L @ Blt L MIa W Oak W @Car W Clev L @ Mia L
ok, that's 6-10 in my very rough estimation. but i don't feel good about it so i don't like paying too much for under 6.5 you just never know about teams so i don't like playing low unders or high overs and paying extra because there's so little margin for error.
but would it surprise me if the team completely implodes and they go 4-12? not at all.
New Orleans win! ?
Pitt win!?
I'll book your action on both Moneylines.
As noted, ya couldn't get to 7! This is what I'm saying!
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
for the record, i'm not a jets fan. if anything, i'm a 49ers fan but i really don't care who wins each beyond the gambling angle.
ok, let me go through their schedule (which again, i never do when betting team totals)
TB L @ NE L Buff W @ Tenn L @ Atl L Pitt W NE L @ Cinc L NO W @ Buff L @ Blt L MIa W Oak W @Car W Clev L @ Mia L
ok, that's 6-10 in my very rough estimation. but i don't feel good about it so i don't like paying too much for under 6.5 you just never know about teams so i don't like playing low unders or high overs and paying extra because there's so little margin for error.
but would it surprise me if the team completely implodes and they go 4-12? not at all.
New Orleans win! ?
Pitt win!?
I'll book your action on both Moneylines.
As noted, ya couldn't get to 7! This is what I'm saying!
i'm never impressed with teams with shitty defenses playing on the road.
i don't think pitt will be very good this season.
i also gave you a 1-7 road record for the jets. not sure they'll be that bad away from all of the commotion in ny. they aren't winning in Atl but they could steal 3 wins on the road.
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i'm never impressed with teams with shitty defenses playing on the road.
i don't think pitt will be very good this season.
i also gave you a 1-7 road record for the jets. not sure they'll be that bad away from all of the commotion in ny. they aren't winning in Atl but they could steal 3 wins on the road.
i'm never impressed with teams with shitty defenses playing on the road.
i don't think pitt will be very good this season.
i also gave you a 1-7 road record for the jets. not sure they'll be that bad away from all of the commotion in ny. they aren't winning in Atl but they could steal 3 wins on the road.
At the absolute best I get 2-6 in the road which means they need to go 5-3 at home to get over the 6.5.
That's a very tough sell even if you guarantee a win vs. OAK and CLE (and those wins are not guaranteed anyhow).
Even the most crazed Jets fan won't tell you they will have a winning record at home this year.
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
i'm never impressed with teams with shitty defenses playing on the road.
i don't think pitt will be very good this season.
i also gave you a 1-7 road record for the jets. not sure they'll be that bad away from all of the commotion in ny. they aren't winning in Atl but they could steal 3 wins on the road.
At the absolute best I get 2-6 in the road which means they need to go 5-3 at home to get over the 6.5.
That's a very tough sell even if you guarantee a win vs. OAK and CLE (and those wins are not guaranteed anyhow).
Even the most crazed Jets fan won't tell you they will have a winning record at home this year.
we shall see. i'm not saying i like the over. just making the argument. i think i could make an argument for the over and the under on just about any team, at least in a couple of months.
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we shall see. i'm not saying i like the over. just making the argument. i think i could make an argument for the over and the under on just about any team, at least in a couple of months.
i really didn't try, i was playing along and giving a quick but fair game by game assessment in may which is way too early. but i really don't play team totals that way. i may come back to this in august when i start looking seriously. or i may just agree with you.
never too early to discuss football though.
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i really didn't try, i was playing along and giving a quick but fair game by game assessment in may which is way too early. but i really don't play team totals that way. i may come back to this in august when i start looking seriously. or i may just agree with you.
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