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[NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl 47 : San Fran vs Baltimore |
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gfinger |
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#151 Posted: 1/28/2013 9:27:22 PM
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WillyBilliams |
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#152 Posted: 1/28/2013 10:17:25 PM
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marincounty |
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#153 Posted: 1/28/2013 10:56:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Could play out that way. Wouldnt surprise me at all. It is the NFL and this is just another game. Clearly, this is NOT just another game. Remember these brothers shared a bedroom, and, because they were so competitive, the father drew a line down the middle of the room so each son would have his own space. Remember that Jim went to Nevada and challenged Kaepernick to a throwing contest (which Kaepernick won). Jim traded up to get this special talent. Remember that Jim benched Smith when he was 25 for 27 and leading the NFL in passing %. And, yes, if SF wins this SB, the brothers will be 1-1 head-to-head, but they will NOT be even.  |
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abizzo24 |
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#154 Posted: 1/28/2013 11:46:39 PM |
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NFLJOE |
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#155 Posted: 1/29/2013 12:31:31 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by gfinger:
Let's keep this simple people. Niners beat two teams with absolutely shitty defenses, GB & Atlanta. Baltimore went to Denver and New England and won. If you can convince me that Kap is better than Brady, I will take SF. I will go on, Baltimore has a better D, better WRs, and better RBs. Also one more thing, SF wasn't able to beat St Louis in two tries this year, how bad is that? In my opinion the wrong team is favored here, heck if anything, it should be a pk 'em at the very least. If Vegas is offering 4.5 to take Baltimore, who wouldn't take that, outside of a SF fan.
You say Atlanta and Green Bay had bad defenses. So what do you call the Patriots 25th ranked defense? Great? Don't just gloss over that important fact. The patriots defense is HORRID! They couldn't stop any QB from throwing on them. You may want the Ravens to win but try and be somewhat objective.
I'm not saying the Ravens won't win, because they are certainly capable, but give credit where credit is due. Niners are a very good team who beat good teams to get here. |
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DaBestEver24 |
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#156 Posted: 1/29/2013 12:52:00 AM |
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#157 Posted: 1/29/2013 1:03:45 AM |
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Down200k |
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#158 Posted: 1/29/2013 4:51:29 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by abizzo24:
love it train. this line is a gift IMO.
GL!
Still undecided on this on, but Vegas doesn't give gifts. That is for sure. Could be the biggest trap game of the year. Reading a hearing a lot more people on the Ravens. Niners could have the kind of game they had against the Bills and the Jets, or they could come out scared and play sloppy to then maybe come back and win it late. Who knows. But, Vegas don't give gifts. |
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#159 Posted: 1/29/2013 9:18:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Down200k:
Still undecided on this on, but Vegas doesn't give gifts. That is for sure. Could be the biggest trap game of the year. Reading a hearing a lot more people on the Ravens. Niners could have the kind of game they had against the Bills and the Jets, or they could come out scared and play sloppy to then maybe come back and win it late. Who knows. But, Vegas don't give gifts.
Vegas has been using regular season power ratings to handicap the ravens throughout the playoffs. so if you have been on the ravens, they have been giving gifts the entire playoffs. they still haven't completely adjusted to the fact that the ravens are now healthy and different team they were during the regular season.
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cornholer |
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#160 Posted: 1/29/2013 10:37:45 AM 1st time poster, but long time player. This is also coming from a life long Baltimore resident.
I don't believe the advantages are as one-sided as some (including you, Train) have made it to out to be.
First, the Ed Reed that people are referring to here, no longer exist. Reed is constantly late to the ball, is tentative to contact due to past injuries, and rarely makes the big play anymore. The Ravens secondary has played remarkably well since recovering from the Webb's season ending injury, but they have weaknesses including the deep ball. S.F. O-line should protect Super-kid fairly well to exploit this area and I'm expecting the Crabtree/Walker combo to have their big moments Sunday.
Second, one of biggest (and most overlooked) advantages for S.F. in this game will be their overall team speed. They are faster than anything the Ravens saw this year and it showed when they faced New England on that Sunday night. This leads me to the first prop bet that I like- TEAM WITH MOST PENALTY YDS Ravens -125. They've been 1 or 2 in penalty yds all year long and 49ers speed in this game won't make it any easier.
Third, Terrell Suggs has had a difficult time since coming back from his serious injury in which as everyone knows, he probably pushed too quickly. While proving he's a gamer, he's made very few big plays since returning and should be neutralized by the stellar S.F. O-line.
Fourth, Joe Flacco has played very well in the playoffs and proven many of his critics wrong (including me). If you've seen every Ravens game over the last few years, you would have your doubts, too. With that being said, Raven receivers are not known for getting good separation and Joe has had to pinpoint most of his passes the past few weeks. There's a fine line between a perfectly thrown pass in tight quarters and an interception. He'll probably have to do it again this Sunday for the Ravens to be successful.
Good luck to all. (Needless to say, I like the 49ers to cover).
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SportsM62 |
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#161 Posted: 1/29/2013 12:56:59 PM
Not gonna post a bunch of stats or trends for one reason: I dont know them. Dont care. Looking at trends and crap like that is futile. There is no model or "system" that can predict winners. As long as the pigskin bounces funny and people are allowed to make stupid decisions, games will always have too many variables to accurately calculate.
I dont blame you for ignoring trends, they are crap for the most part, but stats are real information. Are you saying "Dont confuse me with the facts, I already have my mind made up"? |
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SportsM62 |
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#162 Posted: 1/29/2013 1:01:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cornholer: 1st time poster, but long time player. This is also coming from a life long Baltimore resident.
I don't believe the advantages are as one-sided as some (including you, Train) have made it to out to be.
First, the Ed Reed that people are referring to here, no longer exist. Reed is constantly late to the ball, is tentative to contact due to past injuries, and rarely makes the big play anymore. The Ravens secondary has played remarkably well since recovering from the Webb's season ending injury, but they have weaknesses including the deep ball. S.F. O-line should protect Super-kid fairly well to exploit this area and I'm expecting the Crabtree/Walker combo to have their big moments Sunday.
Second, one of biggest (and most overlooked) advantages for S.F. in this game will be their overall team speed. They are faster than anything the Ravens saw this year and it showed when they faced New England on that Sunday night. This leads me to the first prop bet that I like- TEAM WITH MOST PENALTY YDS Ravens -125. They've been 1 or 2 in penalty yds all year long and 49ers speed in this game won't make it any easier.
Third, Terrell Suggs has had a difficult time since coming back from his serious injury in which as everyone knows, he probably pushed too quickly. While proving he's a gamer, he's made very few big plays since returning and should be neutralized by the stellar S.F. O-line.
Fourth, Joe Flacco has played very well in the playoffs and proven many of his critics wrong (including me). If you've seen every Ravens game over the last few years, you would have your doubts, too. With that being said, Raven receivers are not known for getting good separation and Joe has had to pinpoint most of his passes the past few weeks. There's a fine line between a perfectly thrown pass in tight quarters and an interception. He'll probably have to do it again this Sunday for the Ravens to be successful.
Good luck to all. (Needless to say, I like the 49ers to cover).
Cornholer? 
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bpbeelen |
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#163 Posted: 1/29/2013 4:35:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Flacco is your MVP. Should go 24-34 for about 300 yds and 3 tds.
l-o-f ucking-l |
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BreakaBookie |
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#164 Posted: 1/29/2013 5:45:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cornholer:
1st time poster, but long time player. This is also coming from a life long Baltimore resident.
I don't believe the advantages are as one-sided as some (including you, Train) have made it to out to be.
First, the Ed Reed that people are referring to here, no longer exist. Reed is constantly late to the ball, is tentative to contact due to past injuries, and rarely makes the big play anymore. The Ravens secondary has played remarkably well since recovering from the Webb's season ending injury, but they have weaknesses including the deep ball. S.F. O-line should protect Super-kid fairly well to exploit this area and I'm expecting the Crabtree/Walker combo to have their big moments Sunday.
Second, one of biggest (and most overlooked) advantages for S.F. in this game will be their overall team speed. They are faster than anything the Ravens saw this year and it showed when they faced New England on that Sunday night. This leads me to the first prop bet that I like- TEAM WITH MOST PENALTY YDS Ravens -125. They've been 1 or 2 in penalty yds all year long and 49ers speed in this game won't make it any easier.
Third, Terrell Suggs has had a difficult time since coming back from his serious injury in which as everyone knows, he probably pushed too quickly. While proving he's a gamer, he's made very few big plays since returning and should be neutralized by the stellar S.F. O-line.
Fourth, Joe Flacco has played very well in the playoffs and proven many of his critics wrong (including me). If you've seen every Ravens game over the last few years, you would have your doubts, too. With that being said, Raven receivers are not known for getting good separation and Joe has had to pinpoint most of his passes the past few weeks. There's a fine line between a perfectly thrown pass in tight quarters and an interception. He'll probably have to do it again this Sunday for the Ravens to be successful.
Good luck to all. (Needless to say, I like the 49ers to cover).
First of all welcome aboard....
I have to disagree with the highlighted statement above.... respectfully of course.....
New Orleans is Reed's hometown, and he's well aware of his play during the last 2 games. I expect him to be emotionally charged up while in front of his hometown and for the last time wearing a Ravens uniform. This is kind of a "contract game" for him as well..... even though he's probably just going to sign with New England....
Here's a video that I caught this morning off of espn.
GL with your play.
<script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:8892637&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script>
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TRAIN69 |
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#165 Posted: 1/30/2013 2:53:09 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsM62: Originally Posted by TRAIN69] 15-4-1 playoffs Not gonna post a bunch of stats or trends for one reason: I dont know them. Dont care. Looking at trends and crap like that is futile. There is no model or "system" that can predict winners. As long as the pigskin bounces funny and people are allowed to make stupid decisions, games will always have too many variables to accurately calculate.
I dont blame you for ignoring trends, they are crap for the most part, but stats are real information. Are you saying "Dont confuse me with the facts, I already have my mind made up"?
Not at all. Stats can be the most misleading piece of info out there. You have to look at matchups,motivation, situation and other various angles. Kinda like baseball. Sure the best teams have the best stats, but they still lose 40% of the time....
You cant simply look at box scores and predict what will happen next week. How many times has a team looked like dogsh_t one week, and turn around and look like the best team in the league.....
Gotta think outside the box (score)....
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TRAIN69 |
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#166 Posted: 1/30/2013 2:53:32 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by WillyBilliams:
Thanks for your insight and opinion. I don't always agree, but you have opened my eyes a few times and brought up points I over looked. You are one of 5 or 6 posts I always read.
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CoverLane |
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#167 Posted: 1/30/2013 2:59:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Not at all. Stats can be the most misleading piece of info out there. You have to look at matchups,motivation, situation and other various angles. Kinda like baseball. Sure the best teams have the best stats, but they still lose 40% of the time....
You cant simply look at box scores and predict what will happen next week. How many times has a team looked like dogsh_t one week, and turn around and look like the best team in the league.....Gotta think outside the box (score)....
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TRAIN69 |
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#168 Posted: 1/30/2013 3:18:23 AM 
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TRAIN69 |
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#169 Posted: 1/30/2013 3:30:05 AM
Ravens +4.5 & O47 -120
Ravens ML +160
Ravens +11/O40.5 teaser
Props and such:
SF TT U26
Balt TT O22
Ravens win by (all very small):
6-10 +800
11-15 +1100
16-20 +1600
21-25 +2500
SF punts more +175
1st quarter O9.5 -125
Balt wins both halves +450
Flacco MVP +275 (a little bigger than the rest)
Add:
Vernon Davis O3.5 receptions -135 LARGEST PROP
Bernard Pollard O6.5 tackles + assists -120
Flacco O1.5 tds passes -145
Torrey Smith O3.5 receptions -135
Pitta O4 recpetiosn -105
Jacoby Jones O1.5 receptions -125
49ers have successful 2 pt conversion YES +110
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Crashdavis565 |
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#170 Posted: 1/30/2013 4:35:59 AM No one runs it in on the Niners |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#171 Posted: 1/30/2013 4:36:26 AM I would not put a dollar on him, not one |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#172 Posted: 1/30/2013 4:37:40 AM If you cannot get up for this game after two weeks of hype , you do not belong in the NFL.
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CoverLane |
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#173 Posted: 1/30/2013 4:55:30 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69: No comprendo?
That was easily the dumbest statement I have read on covers yet.
Congratulations.
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TRAIN69 |
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#174 Posted: 1/30/2013 7:34:16 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:
That was easily the dumbest statement I have read on covers yet.
Congratulations.
Then:
A) You must only read my threads
B) Have no idea what you are talking about
C) All of the above
Hint:
The answer is D!!! You're a fu cking idiot.
Prove me wrong about stats since what I said is so stupid. I'm gonna be waiting awhile arent i?
Gotta step your game up kid. Lifes bigger than moms basement and welfare checks. 
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ROVIN56 |
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#175 Posted: 1/30/2013 8:08:51 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
When have I ever insulted you? 
you never have you read that wrong.........i meant rip their throats out "like you do" |
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