Ravens/49ers total

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Ravens/49ers total
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/24/2013 1:41:28 AM
Was able to place a bet on this at 48. 

I am taking the under. Will elaborate with some thoughts later.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/24/2013 1:04:46 PM

I am viewing this game more along the lines of a traditional divisional matchup. More like Steelers-Ravens or Seahawks-49ers. The 16-6 game they played last year lingers in my mind. There is, no doubt, significant bilateral knowledge of each team and coaching philosophies given the sibling connection. Shakespearean intimacy. I don't think this aspect is being fully integrated or appreciated as far as the total goes. The Harbaugh brothers are keenly aware of each others' personnel and perhaps certain foibles or deficiencies. How could they not be? I have little doubt they have each watched the other's entire slate of contests. Two full weeks to prepare will only enhance the already substantial knowlege they both possess. Will this lead to more offense? Not in my view. A defensive oriented game is what I envision.

The Ravens defense has only given up 34 points, on the road, the last 2 weeks to arguably two of the most complete offenses in the NFL. Their D has played on remarkable energy and emotion these playoffs given the lopsided number of plays they have been on the field. Now they will be rested. They are riding a wave of health on D and veteran leadership abounds. Colin K presents a vastly different type of QB, but also one with the most limited overall experience and not in any way comparable to Brady or Manning as far as adjusting plays. Kaepernick will be facing the best and most prepared defense he has seen this season, imo. 

 

Out of a bye, the Ravens D has done extremely well under John H, giving up 11.2 ppg:

2008--won 28-10 against Cleveland

2009--won 30-7 against Denver

2010--won 26-10 against Miami

2011--won 29-14 against Houston

2012--won 25-15 @ Cleveland

I do not foresee Kaepernick having a smooth game on a national stage.  Far from it. He is entering a situation where he will be thoroughly analyzed and prepared for by a savvy core group of defenders.

On the other side, Flacco has been stellar the last 3 games. Zero picks and his highest 3 game stretch of QB rating in his whole career.  I don't think it will sustain itself against a very tenacious SF D. He is due for some regression to the mean. Not necessarily picks, but I just don't see him and Boldin/Smith/Pitta having miraculous types of catches. There have been some amazing catches the last 3 games, and Flacco is not an amazing QB.

Rice and Gore will be utilized. The QB's will not shine as bright as they have been lately. Defense prevails.

Under 48. Good luck.

Cooler999 PM Cooler999
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11372
 
Cooler999
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 1/24/2013 3:22:59 PM
Nice write up, and you get an A for grammar and spelling... a rare hat trick in this forum.

I would only say to you, when Baltimore and NYG played there super bowl, it was pegged as an under for sure.  I don't think Baltimore and scoring points made it in the same sentence that year, or for the SB on the write ups.  That was the year they had back to back Kick off returns, btw.

As Train said in his thread....that ball is shaped weird, and takes some funny bounces.  Hope all your bounces go towards the under for you.







mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/24/2013 4:25:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Nice write up, and you get an A for grammar and spelling... a rare hat trick in this forum.

I would only say to you, when Baltimore and NYG played there super bowl, it was pegged as an under for sure.  I don't think Baltimore and scoring points made it in the same sentence that year, or for the SB on the write ups.  That was the year they had back to back Kick off returns, btw.

As Train said in his thread....that ball is shaped weird, and takes some funny bounces.  Hope all your bounces go towards the under for you.



Anything is possible, but the Ravens have already given up two kick returns for TD's. Statistically, it is highly unlikely they will give up 3 in 4 playoff games. In fact, I don't believe that has ever happened in NFL playoff history.
Also, both teams are top 4 in fewest turnovers for the season, so I think there will be limited chances for turnovers to be had or converted easily. 

mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/29/2013 5:45:36 PM
Just wanted to add another bye week game I forgot to mention. In last year's playoffs, the Ravens beat Houston 20-13 after a first round bye. 

Another example of the preparedness of this Ravens D given time to study and gameplan.
terp4life PM terp4life
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 134
 
terp4life
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/29/2013 6:06:22 PM
i like it. i'm all over Ravens ML and the under.  good luck to u. 
nc1capper PM nc1capper
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 16348
 
nc1capper
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 1/29/2013 6:54:10 PM
The so called square play is the OVER , corner me up , sometime the square side is the right side 
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/29/2013 7:03:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nc1capper:

The so called square play is the OVER , corner me up , sometime the square side is the right side 

I don't think there really is a so called "square" or "sharp" side to this total. It's an accurate total that's being given out by the books, imo. I just happen to think the value lies with defense and consequently fewer points, in this particular matchup.

mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/3/2013 10:59:13 AM
Adding more at under 47.5. 


Enjoy the Super Bowl gentlemen.
docterd597 PM docterd597
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 15524
 
docterd597
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:10:38 AM
Enjoy the game Mel.
Denverb PM Denverb
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 5150
 
Denverb
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:34:34 AM
BigNiner PM BigNiner
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 7161
 
BigNiner
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:35:55 AM

up to 48 now at my book.

Good luck today brother. I like the under too.

pavaman58 PM pavaman58
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 274
 
pavaman58
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:51:46 AM
Over is the play, perfect field conditions, 72 degrees no wind, dry fast tract and there always seems to be big plays in the SB, both defenses are very opportunistic, OVER AND GO TO BED.  Also, SB in domes are historically 75% over.
BigNiner PM BigNiner
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 7161
 
BigNiner
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:52:54 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pavaman58:

Over is the play, perfect field conditions, 72 degrees no wind, dry fast tract and there always seems to be big plays in the SB, both defenses are very opportunistic, OVER AND GO TO BED.  Also, SB in domes are historically 75% over.

What?!?!?!

There isn't going to be any wind today?

Any other insight you can offer?

kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 35340
 
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:54:19 AM
Fantastic analysis as always, m_w, thank you very much for sharing
lsufasteddie PM lsufasteddie
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 5291
 
lsufasteddie
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:59:11 AM
Nice write up, and you get an A for grammar and spelling... a rare hat trick in this forum.


HAT trick is three items
Posted using a mobile device.
lsufasteddie PM lsufasteddie
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 5291
 
lsufasteddie
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/3/2013 12:00:23 PM
Unless you're talking write up, grammar, and spelling. Ha

Sorry, bored with all the shitty threads on this site these days
Posted using a mobile device.
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3621
 
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/3/2013 12:09:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pavaman58:

Over is the play, perfect field conditions, 72 degrees no wind, dry fast tract and there always seems to be big plays in the SB, both defenses are very opportunistic, OVER AND GO TO BED.  Also, SB in domes are historically 75% over.

No. In pure dome games(no retractable roof) the under is 7-4 in Super Bowl history. With retractable roofs added, the under is still 9-6. 

 


Biscuiteater1 PM Biscuiteater1
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 16568
 
Biscuiteater1
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 2/3/2013 1:09:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Nice write up, and you get an A for grammar and spelling... a rare hat trick in this forum.

I would only say to you, when Baltimore and NYG played there super bowl, it was pegged as an under for sure.  I don't think Baltimore and scoring points made it in the same sentence that year, or for the SB on the write ups.  That was the year they had back to back Kick off returns, btw.

As Train said in his thread....that ball is shaped weird, and takes some funny bounces.  Hope all your bounces go towards the under for you.







i hate myself for doing this but, you get a B for spelling and grammar.
Forum: NFL Betting
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.