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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: I put $600 on Baltimore at 15-1 in Vegas in July... How do I hedge properly?
behindbleuiiiis send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:37:19 AM
The bet is $600 to win $9600.  I would like the hedge a bit, not fully.

The easist way is the just bet 49's on ML at -170, but I don't know if I like that.  I was also thinking about betting 49's with the spread, and than betting the prop that has SF win by 1-4 points to cover those points.  

Are there any other options available to me?  Any recommendations?  Thanks.
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Posted: 1/23/2013 12:47:42 AM

I am in a similiar situation. I am hoping the 49ers ML climbs a bit higher as people back Ravens. The -170 is not very enticing to me.

I was also thinking of watching the in the run lines. If Baltimore take a 7 - 10 point lead, should get over +120 for 49ers or maybe a +3.5 line (could win both with the line). Obvious issue for this is it relies on the ravens to get that lead in the first place.

I am seeing +125 for 49ers to be winning at HT and FT - i might take this option. If the ravens are leading at HT, i lose this bet but will be able to take San Fran at better odds as per above. Issue with this is if scores are tied at HT the HT/FT bet is lost.

We still have 12 days to decide the best course of action.

GL

 

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#3
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:53:58 AM
That's a tough one.  I think if it falls to -150 or less you just put a couple thousand on the ML, and don't try to outsmart yourself.

But the fact that San Fran has shown they can come back strong in the second half (they've won the second half in their last 3 games) is going to make this tougher than it would be with a team that tends to start fast.

Certainly you want to put yourself in a position where you at least make you initial investment back no matter what happens IMHO.
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Posted: 1/23/2013 12:57:49 AM
I like that idea of SF winning the first and second half.  A tie at half would kill, but they they also offer tie-SF which should be somehwere in the range of 8-12 to 1.  That's not a bad idea.
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#5
Posted: 1/23/2013 1:20:08 AM
I would wait for live betting to get to a pk.
You are taking a chance but your only other way is all that juice on ML.
I am in the same spot....I am waiting to see how game plays out. Maybe you won't have to hedge. GL
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Posted: 1/23/2013 7:10:54 AM
Post a photo of the ticket.

Lying DUMMY.
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#7
Posted: 1/23/2013 10:10:35 AM
The 
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#8
Posted: 1/23/2013 10:14:41 AM
The point of a hedge is to minimize the risk. So if you really want to hedge (not something I recommend doing) make it so no matter what team wins, your end payout is the same. 


But realistically, if you were okay with losing the $600 had the ravens not made the miraculous comeback in Denver and romped the almighty pats, why not just let the guy ride? Hedging is dumb. 
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#9
Posted: 1/23/2013 10:36:42 AM
2000-2500 on the niners ml.




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#10
Posted: 1/23/2013 11:56:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by boostyourego:

Post a photo of the ticket.

Lying DUMMY.
Why would he lie..just because $600 is a lot for you, you cant believe it?
my advice to you... Post nothing...dummy.

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#11
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:29:29 PM

I would make sure to secure the intial $600 and no more.  I wouln't do a true hedge on this game...IMHO you'll be leaving money on the table.  This Ravens team has been playing with a horse shoe up their A$$ in the playoffs, and I think big brother Harbaugh may have a few tricks up his sleeve.  Worse case scenario, you get your investment back with a great story, and you can watch the game truly rooting for a team to win without thinking about all the negatives.

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#12
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:34:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:

The point of a hedge is to minimize the risk. So if you really want to hedge (not something I recommend doing) make it so no matter what team wins, your end payout is the same. 


But realistically, if you were okay with losing the $600 had the ravens not made the miraculous comeback in Denver and romped the almighty pats, why not just let the guy ride? Hedging is dumb. 
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#13
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:44:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonyrome:

Why would he lie..just because $600 is a lot for you, you cant believe it?
my advice to you... Post nothing...dummy.


$600 on a +1500 futures bet?

Sure, DUMMY.


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#14
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:46:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by boostyourego:


$600 on a +1500 futures bet?

Sure, DUMMY.


like i said...everyone has different size bank accounts...or in your case allowances.
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#15
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:49:28 PM
I bet between $1000-$2000 per game. And have proof for each one.

DUMMY. 
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#16
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:22:11 PM
First off, I don't need to prove anything, if you don't like what I've written, you can leave the thread.  With that being said though, I'm quite proud of myself so I wouldn't mind posting it.  How do I put a picture on here?

This is second time I've been in this spot. I blew it the last time (had OKC to win NBAC).  I had multiple hedging oppurtunites in that one and got greedy and never pulled the trigger.
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#17
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:25:37 PM
It was bet at the LVH in Vegas, which accepts wagers on futures up to 2k, and in some cases 5k.  Not sure if you've ever wagered that high boostyourego, but I'd understand if you didn't know limits and all that too well.

And for the record, I have $600 on the Bruins in the NHL as well, and had 1k on OKC last year at 6/1.

Every year, I pick one team in every sport and make one decent sized futures wager on them so I have a team to cheer for (since my rooting interests all blow, Jets, Mets, Islanders, Knicks)
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#18
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:38:42 PM
All I see are useless words and no photo.

Lying DUMMY.
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Posted: 1/23/2013 2:50:14 PM
yeh I'd go with live bet if possible, the lines shift on a consistent basis throughout the game and if you have good timing, you can catch a terrific line.

The only issue is the books won't inflate Niners even if they are down by 14 points because they know the comeback mentality they have along with being the favourites whereas Ravens down by 14 early in the game could see that line really sail high.

Would you maybe think of doing a 2-team parlay?
Like do you research and find one good play in any other sport and then get that Niners ML along with it and you should get odds of around +285 or thereabouts
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Posted: 1/23/2013 2:51:21 PM
The problem is, I'm not sure how to put a photo on here as written before.  So as soon as you tell me, I'll get the pic up as a personal favor for you ego.
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#21
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:53:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bobbys_pregame:

yeh I'd go with live bet if possible, the lines shift on a consistent basis throughout the game and if you have good timing, you can catch a terrific line.

The only issue is the books won't inflate Niners even if they are down by 14 points because they know the comeback mentality they have along with being the favourites whereas Ravens down by 14 early in the game could see that line really sail high.

Would you maybe think of doing a 2-team parlay?
Like do you research and find one good play in any other sport and then get that Niners ML along with it and you should get odds of around +285 or thereabouts

That's a great idea I haven't thought of.  If there was a few college bballs for example, I could pair it up with a few decent favs on the ML.  Great idea, and thanks.
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#22
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:53:55 PM
sorry, should say Niners -3.5 instead of the ML as you can see http://www.superbowlhistory.net/superbowl/scores.php

historically, the Superbowl final scores end up being separated by a touchdown or more.
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#23
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:58:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by behindbleuiiiis:


That's a great idea I haven't thought of.  If there was a few college bballs for example, I could pair it up with a few decent favs on the ML.  Great idea, and thanks.


don't rush into it though
Plenty of time, look over a game or two that may be scheduled in the next 48 hours and see if you can find a line you like.


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#24
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:23:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by behindbleuiiiis:

The problem is, I'm not sure how to put a photo on here as written before.  So as soon as you tell me, I'll get the pic up as a personal favor for you ego.

Don't post anything for that wierdo.
It is actually scary how bad he feels he needs to see, sounds like a damn stalker, lol.
Anytime someone like him comes along you know it a a kid with low to no self-esteem and even less money.

BTW, if he really bets as much as he says he does, which he obviously doesn't, then he would realize that your bet of $600 was no big deal.
But he doesn't realize that, which proves he is full of it.

Don't feed the troll!


GL with your hedge or no hedge, I have a similar issue just about half of your payout though.
I am going to wait in game and see what I can get live to hedge.
If Ravens go up early you will immediately get a much better line.

I do have some future $ on 49ers though so either way I win some money, but a lot more if Ravens win.


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#25
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:49:17 PM
If you are going to hedge, just bet SF ML.  If you try to get cute and go with SF minus the points, or SF in a teaser, or wait for in game betting, that might work out, but you could easily lose your future and your "hedge" bets (SF wins by 2 points, every game you tease with loses, or SF gets out to an early lead and wins going away).

At a minimuim, I would bet SF ML to get back your $600.  Then, if in game betting becomes favorable, you can put more on SF.

Just my two cents, and BOL to you.
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