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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: the HarBowl (8-1 playoff)
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#1
Posted: 1/21/2013 7:32:08 PM
3-1 Wildcard
3-0 Div Games
2-0 Conf Championship

8-1 overall

Let's continue the winning ways !

Leaning +4 Baltimore as of now..

definitely not locked in.. but if the game was today, i would play it at Balt +4

I have been saying all-along that SF plays well with one dimensional, pass-happy team... but tends to struggle with teams that have a a solid, power running game between the tackles.

so which profile does Baltimore fit in ? I would have to say the latter.

Baltimore likes to first establish their run game to open up the passing game later. The re-vamped offensive line has been great in pass protection and opening gaps for Rice and Pierce.

OC Caldwell has also been getting better and better in mixing up the plays. He utilizes what the previous OC Cam never did.. letting Flacco do his thing.

Balt also has plenty of offensive weapons, too. Perhaps more than SF.

Rice, Pierce, Boldin, Smith and Pitta VS  Gore, James, Crabtree and Davis. On a pick'em game on the playground, i wouldn't know who to pick first.. lol (btw, James is scary fast)

SF does have a dangerous option running game with CK at helm.. but Flacco is capable of running for 1st down, too.. unlike Manning, Brady and Ryan.

IMO, the the defensive line is similar too.. with 49ers having better corp of LBs and Ravens having a slight edge in the secondary. They both play the 3-4 defense.. with the Ravens mixing it up with 4-3 at times.

Both Harbaughs and their coaching staff does incredible jobs in motivating and preparing the players.. as well as making good half time adjustments. No edge for either.

My point is that these teams are very similar.

Similar enough that one team does not have a enough advantage to warrant a 4 point spread on a neutral field.

IMO this game will come down to Raven's "bend but don't break" mentality. They will let 49ers get the yardage without the TDs, holding them to 3points rather than the 7.

the game will be closely contested throughout..  with Akers missing a key FG at the end for the 49ers.

Crazy Carlitos

looking for additional INSIGHTS


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#2
Posted: 1/21/2013 7:53:45 PM
ravens much more battle tested more veterans better leadership, they win SU and I think easily. Hell they held Brady to 13 pts
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#3
Posted: 1/21/2013 7:57:58 PM
I believe the Raven's Defense haven't seen the speed and mis-direction plays of the 49ers Offense.  I don't want to jink this, but Niners win... win by 4 is the question.
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#4
Posted: 1/21/2013 8:11:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lsharks:

I believe the Raven's Defense haven't seen the speed and mis-direction plays of the 49ers Offense.  I don't want to jink this, but Niners win... win by 4 is the question.
granted, it not possible to fully prepare for someone with so much speed.

however, i like the approach Atlanta took.

They forced CK to hand it off to Gore/James.. daring CK to beat them with his arm and poise rather than his leg. Unfortunately for the Falcons, it didn't work in 2nd half since the Atl offense couldn't move the ball effectively. A tired defense is useless no matter what the game plan is.

IMO Baltimore will take a similar approach when it comes to CK.. and they have better D-line than Atl
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#5
Posted: 1/22/2013 10:41:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:

granted, it not possible to fully prepare for someone with so much speed.

however, i like the approach Atlanta took.

They forced CK to hand it off to Gore/James.. daring CK to beat them with his arm and poise rather than his leg. Unfortunately for the Falcons, it didn't work in 2nd half since the Atl offense couldn't move the ball effectively. A tired defense is useless no matter what the game plan is.

IMO Baltimore will take a similar approach when it comes to CK.. and they have better D-line than Atl


exactly what I was thinking ... only thing that scares me is CK's ability to make a play of a broken one ...
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#6
Posted: 1/22/2013 1:56:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:



But early lean on balt + 4 after watching the games today. I have a feeling the line will be at +3 by game time.
anyone else thinks this ?

or do u think the line will go up ?


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#7
Posted: 1/22/2013 8:31:01 PM
Honestly I can see it staying right there, Maybe a 1/2 point either way. I am with ya too. Think this year may  be the ravens year!
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#8
Posted: 1/22/2013 8:34:24 PM
Like every year, late money comes in for the dog and the line goes down.  I expect it to go down to 3.5 come kick off...
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#9
Posted: 1/22/2013 8:36:35 PM
I think the line will go down, pound your poor old ravens 
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#10
Posted: 1/22/2013 8:49:06 PM
Pls Pound them Ravens LOL!!!!!  They are the talk of the town on this site so much Raven Love hahaha


Ravens will be destroyed we all know who Flacco is lol a choke artist lol
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#11
Posted: 1/22/2013 9:14:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OG49ers4Life:

Pls Pound them Ravens LOL!!!!!  They are the talk of the town on this site so much Raven Love hahaha


Ravens will be destroyed we all know who Flacco is lol a choke artist lol
looking for real insights to SB

homers need not reply..
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#12
Posted: 1/22/2013 9:22:52 PM
It's 3 1/2 now

3 by game time

Ravens seem to be playing better

Bet them at + 4

Best of luck
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#13
Posted: 1/22/2013 11:51:17 PM
I think niners pull out the win. I know balti beat den but that was cuz of a busted prevent defense. In overtime both teams were playing "dont make a mistake" football which of course manning ended making trying to rollout. The pats played horribly last sunday. Gonna watch the replay tmrw to get a better perspective on that game tho. From what i saw brady didnt seem like himself, underthrowing passes and wes welker had drops that were crucial. NE defense is nothing special at all and over the years home field hasnt been an advantage at all for them. I also feel that gronk being out of the game was a huge disadvantage for ne.  On the other hand u have the niners route to the superbowl. Kaep giving up a huge pick six in the first possession of the game. He kept hos cool and came right back with a td the next possession. Yes gb defense isnt top notch but they have the offensive weapons like NO did when they won the superbowl a few years back. Niners won that game easily after dominated the 2nd half. Next was atl. Atl is an amazing team. Probably has the best offensive weapons in the league. I was wrong thinking atl would comeout slow. After atl was up 17-0 the niners didnt just resort to throwing the ball, they stuck to the game plan and mixed run with pass. Atl d is no slouch at home. Niners got going on offense score a td on three consecutive drives with kaep running once. The niners d stuffed the falcons in the 2nd half which is very impressive. Granted ryan threw an interception and fumbled but those were cancelled out wit an akers missed fg and a crabtree fumble. Niners won that game because of their defense. 

I feel the niners route is more impressive than baltimores. Yes balti was huge dogs but does that really make their wins more impressive? Baltimore's offense looks like theyre clicking but i think atl and gb's offense is much better and the niners stopped them. I do think baltimores defense is better than atl and gb but the niners running attack and passing game is more potent than denver and a gronk-less patriots. Niners offense > baltimore offense and niners defense > baltimores defense imo.  Niners r the better team, Im taking the niners -3.5 
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#14
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:37:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:

3-1 Wildcard
3-0 Div Games
2-0 Conf Championship

8-1 overall

Let's continue the winning ways !

Leaning +4 Baltimore as of now..

definitely not locked in.. but if the game was today, i would play it at Balt +4

I have been saying all-along that SF plays well with one dimensional, pass-happy team... but tends to struggle with teams that have a a solid, power running game between the tackles.

so which profile does Baltimore fit in ? I would have to say the latter.

Baltimore likes to first establish their run game to open up the passing game later. The re-vamped offensive line has been great in pass protection and opening gaps for Rice and Pierce.

OC Caldwell has also been getting better and better in mixing up the plays. He utilizes what the previous OC Cam never did.. letting Flacco do his thing.

Balt also has plenty of offensive weapons, too. Perhaps more than SF.

Rice, Pierce, Boldin, Smith and Pitta VS  Gore, James, Crabtree and Davis. On a pick'em game on the playground, i wouldn't know who to pick first.. lol (btw, James is scary fast)

SF does have a dangerous option running game with CK at helm.. but Flacco is capable of running for 1st down, too.. unlike Manning, Brady and Ryan.

IMO, the the defensive line is similar too.. with 49ers having better corp of LBs and Ravens having a slight edge in the secondary. They both play the 3-4 defense.. with the Ravens mixing it up with 4-3 at times.

Both Harbaughs and their coaching staff does incredible jobs in motivating and preparing the players.. as well as making good half time adjustments. No edge for either.

My point is that these teams are very similar.

Similar enough that one team does not have a enough advantage to warrant a 4 point spread on a neutral field.

IMO this game will come down to Raven's "bend but don't break" mentality. They will let 49ers get the yardage without the TDs, holding them to 3points rather than the 7.

the game will be closely contested throughout..  with Akers missing a key FG at the end for the 49ers.

Crazy Carlitos

looking for additional INSIGHTS



Out of all the BS I have read regarding this match up this is the one sentence that has hit home the most....
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#15
Posted: 1/23/2013 1:01:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theKCco_op:


Out of all the BS I have read regarding this match up this is the one sentence that has hit home the most....
lmao. So everything else is bullshit cuz someone points out the obvious? So niners struggle wit teams that are run happy like min sea stl and nyg? Niners were down from the get-go so of course the team runs the ball 20+ times. Kaep gave stl that game up 8 wit an option fumble and an akers missed fg in ot. Jackson ran 21 times for 48 yds. If im not mistaken baltimore is one of more pass-happy teams in the nfl! Ignorance i tell u 
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#16
Posted: 1/23/2013 1:06:55 AM
When a team is up big the opposition becomes one dimensional.. Except for the niners  example last sunday vs atl  they kept their composure and thats what makes a champion 
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#17
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:39:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

I think niners pull out the win. I know balti beat den but that was cuz of a busted prevent defense. In overtime both teams were playing "dont make a mistake" football which of course manning ended making trying to rollout. The pats played horribly last sunday. Gonna watch the replay tmrw to get a better perspective on that game tho. From what i saw brady didnt seem like himself, underthrowing passes and wes welker had drops that were crucial. NE defense is nothing special at all and over the years home field hasnt been an advantage at all for them. I also feel that gronk being out of the game was a huge disadvantage for ne.  On the other hand u have the niners route to the superbowl. Kaep giving up a huge pick six in the first possession of the game. He kept hos cool and came right back with a td the next possession. Yes gb defense isnt top notch but they have the offensive weapons like NO did when they won the superbowl a few years back. Niners won that game easily after dominated the 2nd half. Next was atl. Atl is an amazing team. Probably has the best offensive weapons in the league. I was wrong thinking atl would comeout slow. After atl was up 17-0 the niners didnt just resort to throwing the ball, they stuck to the game plan and mixed run with pass. Atl d is no slouch at home. Niners got going on offense score a td on three consecutive drives with kaep running once. The niners d stuffed the falcons in the 2nd half which is very impressive. Granted ryan threw an interception and fumbled but those were cancelled out wit an akers missed fg and a crabtree fumble. Niners won that game because of their defense. 

I feel the niners route is more impressive than baltimores. Yes balti was huge dogs but does that really make their wins more impressive? Baltimore's offense looks like theyre clicking but i think atl and gb's offense is much better and the niners stopped them. I do think baltimores defense is better than atl and gb but the niners running attack and passing game is more potent than denver and a gronk-less patriots. Niners offense > baltimore offense and niners defense > baltimores defense imo.  Niners r the better team, Im taking the niners -3.5 


interesting.. and thx for ur input and BOL.

i do not agree with few things tho.

1st of all, i personally do not care if Balt won against Denver or not.
i only care about who covered the point spread.
hence, i do not care who wins the HarBowl.. i only care about who will cover the spread.

2- u say brady and welker didn't have a good game.
U have to give credit where credit is due, bro. The reason they didn't have a good game was because the Ravens DC and HC had a great game plan.. and the defense stepped up. They made Brady uncomfortable by either forcing him out of pocket or not giving him a clear passing lane. They made the Pats WRs pay for catching the ball in the middle with hard hits, time after time.

3- Niners route to the superbowl ?
They won by 4points in Atl.. hardly a route IMO.. and either pushed/won/lost ATS depending on what line u got.


4- Atlanta is not an amazing team.
They have maybe the best receiving corp with Jones, White, and Gonzalez.. but they don't have a real running game.. their defense cannot tackle.. and their QB gets rattled with just a little pressure. (to me, he is Matty 'Ice' cause he gets cold so fast.. lol) Also, the HC Mike Smith, IMO, is so-so. I think the team is good as they are only because of the GM.

I'd really rather compare just the Bal/SF match-up, rather than basing my decision on how impressive they played in past few games against so-and-so (that goes for both Ravens and the Niners)

The question i keep coming back to is: can this Ravens offense establish an effective run game against the Niners front 7 ?
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#18
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:17:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:



interesting.. and thx for ur input and BOL.

i do not agree with few things tho.

1st of all, i personally do not care if Balt won against Denver or not.
i only care about who covered the point spread.
hence, i do not care who wins the HarBowl.. i only care about who will cover the spread.

2- u say brady and welker didn't have a good game.
U have to give credit where credit is due, bro. The reason they didn't have a good game was because the Ravens DC and HC had a great game plan.. and the defense stepped up. They made Brady uncomfortable by either forcing him out of pocket or not giving him a clear passing lane. They made the Pats WRs pay for catching the ball in the middle with hard hits, time after time.

3- Niners route to the superbowl ?
They won by 4points in Atl.. hardly a route IMO.. and either pushed/won/lost ATS depending on what line u got.


4- Atlanta is not an amazing team.
They have maybe the best receiving corp with Jones, White, and Gonzalez.. but they don't have a real running game.. their defense cannot tackle.. and their QB gets rattled with just a little pressure. (to me, he is Matty 'Ice' cause he gets cold so fast.. lol) Also, the HC Mike Smith, IMO, is so-so. I think the team is good as they are only because of the GM.

I'd really rather compare just the Bal/SF match-up, rather than basing my decision on how impressive they played in past few games against so-and-so (that goes for both Ravens and the Niners)

The question i keep coming back to is: can this Ravens offense establish an effective run game against the Niners front 7 ?
2 - i said i was gonna watch the game later today to get a better perspective on that game. So ur saying gronk being out had very little or no impact on that game?
3 - the "route" i meant was the niners path the the superbowl, not routing gb and atl..
4 - for u to think atl is not a great team is just ignorance.. Atl is much better than ne and baltimore. 

And to answer ur question no i dont think the raven can establish the run against the niners. What team has other than the early season loss to min and letdown game at sea. The question should b can baltimores d stop the niners offense and the answer is no. Who has? 

I know ur mind is already set on baltimore and that alright with me. I just dont understand how people really think baltimore is the better team than the niners cuz i really cant see it. 

Y didnt u bring up my point contradicting ur theory of niners struggling againt balanced teams and do well against pass happy teams? Its because that theory is a joke 


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#19
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:21:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

lmao. So everything else is bullshit cuz someone points out the obvious? So niners struggle wit teams that are run happy like min sea stl and nyg? Niners were down from the get-go so of course the team runs the ball 20+ times. Kaep gave stl that game up 8 wit an option fumble and an akers missed fg in ot. Jackson ran 21 times for 48 yds. If im not mistaken baltimore is one of more pass-happy teams in the nfl! Ignorance i tell u 
i am not talking about stats.

i am talking about teams that will run for 1st down if its 3rd and 3 situation... or a team that can run for 1st downs at the end of the game to run out the clock.

only ignorance i've seen are from the homers on both sides. So there is no need for put-downs. lets keep it civil.
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#20
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:29:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:


Y didnt u bring up my point contradicting ur theory of niners struggling againt balanced teams and do well against pass happy teams? Its because that theory is a joke 


now i know u r just wasting my time..
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#21
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:30:10 PM
The ignorance was directed toward the other guy who said all the other write ups were bullshit. Pass happy run heavy statement u made was extremely vague. I hope im not coming off as an a s s. im trying to give good reasons why i think niners r the better team thats all. Bol cc12

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#22
Posted: 1/23/2013 3:46:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:


3 - the "route" i meant was the niners path the the superbowl, not routing gb and atl..





my bad.

had it confused with 'rout'

Doh !

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#23
Posted: 1/23/2013 8:13:55 PM
Honestly I think the spread is Dead on..... Most people see the forty niners as a better team and they cant kick a field goal, I would not be surprised if Jim Harby looked at every series in field goal territory as 4 down. If that is the case it is entirely possible to see a 4 point niners win or a 7 point niners win....... We will see.......

One thing I will say is that Baltimore's offensive philosophy fits better against San Frans defense as opposed to vice versa....

1. We saw 49's give up big plays down the field and who knows what happens without 2 Matt Ryan turnovers......... Baltimore looks like the old Darrel Lamonica raiders chucking it down the field, BEWARE!!!!

2. Forty niners make their hay at and around the line of scrimmage. Read option, power runs, screens, draws, drag routes... ect. Their only real weapon down the field (ignoring an old randy moss, he will get 1 catch) is vernon davis........ I think the matchup of Pollard, Reed and the backers to take this away, I really like Baltimore.... 

3. One of their big playoff "weapons" has been M. Crabtree. However those games were against the packers and falcons, hardly physical teams who can make one on one tackles near the line of scrimmage... Baltimore however lives to smash people in the open field, ask S. Ridley all bout it. 


Not gonna write everything but last 2 and they weaker so saved for the end


4. Flacco is playing for a contract and his jockstrap, he gets this one, ESPN shuts their mouth at least till next year, he wants that badly

5. Leadership- I know, I know, overhyped and impossible to gauge, but hear me out.....

Baltimores leaders, Ray, Reed, Suggs, Ngata, All grizzled men who know how hard it is to get this far and that this is really their last shot.... This offseason will bring alot of change and if you think that team won't miss Ray's emotion and coaching next year, your crazy, they want this bad.... And don't think that Lewis is telling all of them that this is their only shot at this.......... In short this team is at the top of the mountain but they know they are too old to ever make the climb again, they want to enjoy this more than ever......

Forty Niners however are a franchise on the ascendancy. Having almost been to the big dance 2 years out of 2 under Jimmy boy has these young guns thinking this is their time for Dynasty...."Not one, Not two, Not three....." Kap is riding a whirlwind and the whole game depends on his ability to play like a dynamo. He has become the cog that turns their wheels and his performance will decide the game IMHHO.... Like I said, Impossible to gauge, but you have to wonder if he is not counting the rings on his digits and seeing his number up with Montana's already. 


TIME WILL TELL ALL FELLAS, BOL
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#24
Posted: 1/23/2013 8:15:27 PM
And yes I am picking Baltimore, 31-28, I just think the line is to push a San Fran win  and get em deep in juice......... BUT WHAT THE FFFF DO I KNOW
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#25
Posted: 1/23/2013 9:12:08 PM

A veteran Ravens team will be more focused during the week,throw in the Lewis factor and. goin against a young team that could get distracted more, especially a rookie qb (yea i know he's good) but he's still hasn't started many games now he's in the biggest game on earth.Take the pts,think Baltimore wins outright.BOL

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