Never would have guessed San Fran would be favored by so much

A few weeks ago, (heck, maybe even LAST week) if someone had told me the two teams in the NFC Championship game would be Atlanta and San Fran, and that the spread for the game would be about 4 points, the rest of the conversation might have gone something like this:

Me:  "Four points?  Hmmmnn... I'm not sure I want to give Atlanta and 4, but I would certainly consider Atlanta -2.5."

You:  "Hold on, I wasn't clear.  San Fran is the team favored by 4."

Me:  "What????"

The moral of this little story, for those of you who are taking San Fran and giving the points is... be careful.  It's real easy to get carried away by the results of the previous weekend.

It wouldn't be a very big upset at all for the Falcons to defeat the 49ers at home.  After all, they did hold Seattle to 7 points for three quarters, before the Seahawks got hot in the 4th.  They did finish 13-3 during the regular season this year.  They are a very good team that plays well at home.

I'm not saying take Atlanta.  I'm saying be careful, and don't just look at the previous game.  

I think Atlanta EASILY wins 40% of the time in this spot, at the absolute worst.  Which is why I really can't believe the Atlanta moneyline is up to +180.  (I saw a few spots at +185 yesterday)  You math geeks know, with a moneyline figure of +180, the Falcons only have to win 36 times in this spot to show a profit.  

64 * -$100 = -$6,400.00
36 * +$180 = +$6,480.00

+180 and +185 is not all that far from 2 to 1, and I just don't believe Atlanta, at home, is anywhere near a 2-1 underdog.  No way.

Empty the vault on Atlanta in that case. Bet on mike smith and the falcons to head to the Super Bowl. 

BOL, Ed-Collins