Best situation ive seen in a long time....

ATL + 4 -120 max unit bet

I am absolutely stunned by this line. I cannot believe the public and so called sharps have pounded this line above a FG. Currently 75% of the sheep are backing SF. I have never seen such a great bet on a championship game ever and i have been betting NFL football for 13 years.

SF comes into this game riding high defeating everyones darlings the Packers. Colin ripped through the soft Pack defense for a record 183 yards. That wont happen here. ATL just faced literally the same damn team in SEA. SEA runs the read option with Wilson who IMO is a better passer then Colin but not as great at running. ATL experience facing SEA will help out quite a bit.

The biggest thing here is now SF is in the favorite role after thriving the past 2 years in the underdog role. ATL now wakes up off the first playoff win in the Ryan/Smith era (HUGE monkey off there back) and finds themselves as UNDERDOGS at HOME!!! No one believes in this ATL squad and now everyone cant get enough of SF and Colin the newest sensation we will be hearing about all week

ATL will now play fast and loose at home being underdogs and SF secondary is very suspect IMO. Justin Smith is still no where near 100% and as long as ATL can do a decent job of protecting Ryan, he will carve SF up all day long.

On defense, Nolan will have now had a week watching his schemes against a very similar offense to what they will face this week. SEA and SF are mirror images, read option young QB's, tough running backs and offensive lines, great defenses etc. The biggest difference to me is SEA had much bigger and physical cover CB's to match up with the best WR's in the league where as SF strength on defense is up the middle with the LB's and DL.

Anyone betting SF is betting a grossly inflated line due to public perception and the public's love affair for SF and Colin. I will gladly take 4 points with the home team that no one believes in that can now play fast and loose after finally getting the playoff monkey off there back. Plus they will be pumped at home being underdogs...sign me up!!

ATL 27 SF 23

Ill sprinkle some on the ML on Sunday once the sheep have finished destroying this line.

I havent locked it in yet because it keeps getting higher but my book is offering 4 at -120 so i posted that line. I want to get at least 4 because it is a key number in football. GL

Quote Originally Posted by jmw59:

other side

You and every other Tom, person, Harry, Sharp, Square etc. First game i can remember where everyone is backing the same team, sharps squares, media everyone is backing SF

Thanks for the response but i could not disagree with you more. To say SEA doesnt have recieving weapons like SF is laughable to me. SF has 1 playmaker and that is Crabtree, dont give me Veron Davis, that guy hasnt done anything all year really. SEA has Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and a good TE in Miller. I would give a slight advantage to SEA in terms of weapons but its really splitting hairs, to me SEA and SF are even in that regard

You say SF hasnt been traveling all over but they will be flying cross country to play a game that will feel like 12:00 to them. That is an advantage for ATL. SF in a dome is not the same team, ATL in the dome is not the same team either, ATL is dominant in the dome. To say ATL is not as explosive as GB is crazy to me too. THe best WR tandem in the NFL is hands down White and Jones, throw in the greatest TE of all time and i would say ATL is pretty damn explosive especially in the dome

You are riding CK's nuts like every other person in America, lets see how he does on the road in an extremely hostite enviorment in the dome. To call him a new star of the game after a few starts is laughable and shows that your just like the general public in that you only remember what you last saw

SF is only 3-3 SU and ATS on the turf including having 2 of there 3 losses be in dome's.

Its funny that you say "vegas knows SFRAN is going to win" who the hell is Vegas and can i get his crystal ball LMAO!!

Bottom line is this is a game between two fairly even teams where one team (SF) has lost all of its value due to the public perception on them and there opponent. There is NO VALUE on betting SF, while they could win and cover, you are making a sucker bet into an inflated line due to the public perception on the teams. If you bet ATL, you are getting a HUGE discount on them. GL because with your line of thinking you will need it thorughout your betting career

Fair enough my friend. SF might win and cover here but when the line is so out of whack like it is here I will come out on top over time by taking the value. You might win this one but betting HUGE public plays into GROSSLY inflated lines is a losing proprosition long term guaranteed while betting soft lines like this one is a winning play long term.

You can agrue any point about the teams, how they matchup, players etc but the one thing that is not arguable is the fact that you are betting into a GROSSLY inflated line due to ONLY THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF THE TEAMS while i am betting the value being offerred due to the public perception of the teams. My way is a long term winning strategy yours is not and that's the bottom line and can not be argued. GL

Mack 05, just curious of your thoughts on this scenario

IF SF had squeeked by Green BAy with a last second field goal on a terrible pass inference call that the officials made and most people felt that GB should have won

and

ATL crushed Sea 38-10 and looked great doing it. What do you think the line on this game would be?

Keep in mind that last week results HAVE ZERO EFFECT OF CORRELATION to the nexr weeks results

I would say ATL would be 3-4 point favs so my point here is that last weeks results moved the line at least 6-8 points and you are betting the wrong side of that movement that we both know is worthless because its based on last weeks results which have no bearing on the outcome of this weeks game

Hopefully this line of thinking will at least help you in your handicapping endeavors down the road. GL

I think you are reading this very poorly....

Atl was awful this year against this type of offense...they were shredded by Car twice, and was not good against Wash in very bad weather for offense....

Heck, they gave up 28 point in a half last week....

Sea doesnt have close to the weapons Sf has.  Tate and Rice dont come close to Crabtree, and Davis is  far better at TE.

If Sea didnt sleepwalk through the 1st half and have 2 pathetic redzone opp where they left a for sure 6, possibly 14 point off the board Atl is golfing with GB right now....

You even brought up the fact Kaep is a better runner than Wilson....If you watched the game closely, or watch it again, if Atl doesnt change their D on the zone read Kaep will run for another 180+ this week.....Atls ends were CRASHING the middle everytime...I was shocked Wilson refused to keep the ball at all, he would have had 10-15 yds on every run

Atl is in big, big trouble and i dont think this game will be close at all

Thanks for the response. I believe the reason why you saw ATL crash the middle against SEA was that SEA gashed WASH with read options up the middle with Wilson and Lynch the week before. Nolan is one of the best DCOORD in the league he will watch what Kap did and adjust, no teams play defense the same against different teams it just doesnt happen.

To say SF and SEA weapons on offense arent comparable and that SF has much better weapons just doesnt make any sense to me. Lets go through the weapons leaving out RB's

SF

Crabtree - 1100 yds 9 TD's

V Davis - 548 yds 5 TD's

Manningham 449 yds 1 TD - he is out for the playoffs along with his backup Kyle Williams

Moss 434 yds 3 TD's

So really all you have to do is double Crabtree and they dont have another weapon although Davis is talented he is not productive

Sea

Sidney Rice 750 yds 7 TD's

Golden Tate 688 yds 7 TD's

Miller 396 yds 3 TD's

Baldwin 366 yds 3 TD's

So SEA weapons have more TD's and since they dont have the one main guy that they throw to you cant focus on stopping one guy like when you play SF, if you stop Crabtree you basically stop there entire pass offense

Not to mention that SF is missing Manninham and Williams who were 2 key WR's for them all year. I would say that the weapons both teams have in the passing game are very comparable. Remember Sidney Rice has put up some big years in the NFL and this is really only the first year Crabtree has put up big number

Now factor in that alot of this damage the WR and especially Davis did during the year was with Alex Smith. Smith averaged 160 yards per game passing while Kap only averages 131 yards per game passing so its safe to say now that the weapons were used more with Smith then Kap. None of this really matters but i dont get why everyone keeps saying the 49ers have better weapons then SEA

Past performance should be accounted for but really has no bearing unless you are talking about the same teams matching up together, that would hold more weight. Just because a "team had trouble with a mobile QB" LAST WEEK does not mean that a team will have trouble with a mobile QB THIS WEEK. There are too many other factors to make a determination of future events based on the most previous last event

What i really mean by that is that LAST WEEKS perfomance has no bearing on the outcomes of next weeks games.

You guys are betting into an inflated line based SOLEY on how both teams performed LAST WEEK and the PERCEPTION the PUBLIC has of the teams based off of last week.

The public only really remebers what they just saw, nothing more nothing less.  

If people reading this thread take one thing away no matter what happens Sunday is that when you are talking about betting the NFL the worst possible thing you can do is look at what happened last week and expect similar results the next week. That is the NUMBER 1 reason why people lose money betting the NFL Last week has no effect on the next week, the NFL is all about matchups so if the teams arent the same it has no meaning on the outcome of the next game