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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Atlanta should have gone for 2 up 26-7 .....
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:30:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

John Fox is the biggest dope of the week. This freaking puscyy takes a godamn knee!!!! With 30+ seconds left and 2 timeouts in regulation. Foxy looked like Santa Claus out there, freezing his a$$ off, dude must've had a brain freeze for a second ans thought tebow was still the qb. That's why he took the knee.Has to be.

You would be the same guy who would come on Covers and curse at Fox if Manning had thrown a pick in the final 30 seconds.


Vanzack is right. It is technically smarter to go for two when you are down 12 with the clock winding down in the 4th. 

Im not going into deatail why, Vanzack already did and if you don't agree/understand you are very short sided.

It is a judgement call, and I understand why some people would kick the EP to go down 11. But for me, I want to know what I need and when I need it....if you wait to go for 2 until the final seconds, you are damn sure out of luck if you don't get it....If you don't get it with 7 minutes left, well you still have 7 minutes to get what you need.
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#102
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:50:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

And once again, you miss the point.

If you are down by 18 points, you need to go for 2 once.  You can either do it on the first TD, or on the second TD.

If you go for it on the first TD, YOU KNOW FOR SURE if you need 2 more TD;s, or if you need one TD and one FG.

If you go for it on the second TD, you are stuck if you have already kicked the FG.  You either make it and are tied, or you miss it and you lose.

Wouldnt you think it is an advantage to know ahead of time if that FG is useless or not?

I really dont understand how people dont get this.  Of course you have "seen this dozens of times" - because coaches do this dozens of times - and they do it incorrectly.  Think for yourself.  Try it.

There has to be a reason for why most coaches down by 12 [ with 7 or more min. left ] choose to go for 2 the second time around, and right or wrong I think this is why.......

At that point if they miss and are still down by 12 then the other team scores a FG ....then they are down by 15 instead of 14 had they went for 1 point.

They are trying to avoid announcers and fans from saying " Had they went for 1 then they would only be down by 14"

*DISCLAIMER   ..... Not saying I agree with this strategy....Just saying that that is the coaches theory and why most wait till the second time around.

 

 

As far as Atlanta going for 2 at that time......I would have, but I can see why some would choose not to.

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#103
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:56:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coldsnap55:


They are trying to avoid announcers and fans from saying " Had they went for 1 then they would only be down by 14"



I promise you no coach gives a chit what any fan or announcer says.

As for the Atlanta situation, that was still the 3rd quarter. What if they go for two miss it, and then allow two 4th Q Fgs and two 4th Q TDs and lose 27-26 (it is still very possible to get 4 possesions in 14 minutes.)
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#104
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:57:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal2:

This is why so many people don't post on Covers.

You have pimply 12 year olds calling people morons, stupid, dumb,etc. I don't know if you have taken reading in your school yet but I'm sure you will one day. What don't YOU understand about my post? You are the genius. I think you need to quit your job at McDonalds and go to an NFL team to sell your groundbreaking ideas. You can possibly be standing beside Belichik or Tomlin with your crystal ball and let them know if their two point conversion is going to work at the end of the game. 

WOW...
I do want to thank you though. I'm home, sick with the flu and you just game me one of those laugh out loud moments. 

Almost 50000 posts???
Do you only comment on your own posts or are you one of those guys that have an opinion on everything on this site? You are the genius after all and I guess we should just thank you for your thoughts (apparently A LOT of them.) Good luck with your NFL career PAL.

If this is true then judging from his starting date he made this account from the womb.

Tough birth with all those electronics in there. 

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#105
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:02:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


I promise you no coach gives a chit what any fan or announcer says.

As for the Atlanta situation, that was still the 3rd quarter. What if they go for two miss it, and then allow two 4th Q Fgs and two 4th Q TDs and lose 27-26 (it is still very possible to get 4 possesions in 14 minutes.)

I guess you missed the part where I said..." but I can see why some would choose not to."  

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#106
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:52:48 PM
Usually just read along but Im gonna take a stab at explaining what Van is saying because my friends failed to comprehend when I was stating the same point during the game.

For the arguments sake lets say that no matter the time of the game the 2 pt conversion has the same success rate. If you disagree with that then that's a whole different topic. Houston scores to go down 12 XP/2pt pending

Assume the 2 pt conversion will be successful when attempted
1. Attempted now and converted down 10, you need a td and fg to tie
2. Kick XP now, later kick fg, score td, convert 2 and game is tied

SAME RESULT

Assume the 2 pt conversion will fail when attempted (here's where the difference comes in)
1. Attempt now and miss, down 12 and need 2 TD's
2. Kick XP now down 11, next drive stall out so kick a FG down 8, Next drive TD then missed 2, still down 2. NOW YOU NEED A 3RD SCORE, whereas if you knew ahead of time you were going to miss the 2 (by attempting it earlier) you would have went for it on 4th down

Hopefully that clears it up a little bit, not really looking to argue but I feel that makes perfect sense and is the right move especially considering there are 5 minutes left so any opposition scoring drive should end your chances regardless
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#107
Posted: 1/15/2013 6:19:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coldsnap55:

I guess you missed the part where I said..." but I can see why some would choose not to."  


I wasn't criticizing you in regard to Atlanta, just giving my opinion. (although the more I think about it the more I'm not sure) It depends on a lot of things to me. Opposing kicker, 2pt conversion %, play calling, feel, just to name a few.

I was disagreeing about the part I "quoted" though.
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#108
Posted: 1/15/2013 7:33:52 PM
Down 12 score a TD + Xp down 5   Down 11 TD + 2pt conv. down 3 miss it down 5.    You get the ball back with a minute or so, how much would you rather be trailing by 3 or 5 ?  If Houston missed the 2pt conv. the possibility of a game tying FG  was gone.  You have to wait till the latest moment possible to go for 2.    
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#109
Posted: 1/15/2013 7:46:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


I promise you no coach gives a chit what any fan or announcer says.



you're kidding right???
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#110
Posted: 1/15/2013 8:29:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by antdante77:

Usually just read along but Im gonna take a stab at explaining what Van is saying because my friends failed to comprehend when I was stating the same point during the game.

For the arguments sake lets say that no matter the time of the game the 2 pt conversion has the same success rate. If you disagree with that then that's a whole different topic. Houston scores to go down 12 XP/2pt pending

Assume the 2 pt conversion will be successful when attempted
1. Attempted now and converted down 10, you need a td and fg to tie
2. Kick XP now, later kick fg, score td, convert 2 and game is tied

SAME RESULT

Assume the 2 pt conversion will fail when attempted (here's where the difference comes in)
1. Attempt now and miss, down 12 and need 2 TD's
2. Kick XP now down 11, next drive stall out so kick a FG down 8, Next drive TD then missed 2, still down 2. NOW YOU NEED A 3RD SCORE, whereas if you knew ahead of time you were going to miss the 2 (by attempting it earlier) you would have went for it on 4th down

Hopefully that clears it up a little bit, not really looking to argue but I feel that makes perfect sense and is the right move especially considering there are 5 minutes left so any opposition scoring drive should end your chances regardless

 

The situation is assuming you are down 18 in the final qtr....

So, it is safe to assume you will be attempting 1 or even 2 onside kicks during this qtr....

So, it is safe to assume the opp will have a good chance to kick atleast 1 fg.....

 

Now...lets say you go for 2 after the 1st td, down 12 to try to make it a 10 point game....if you miss, then the opp gets a fg you are down 15 and not 14....

So now, you are ending up needing to go for 2 a 2nd time.....

 

I dont remember seeing many teams going for 2 down 12....in fact I cant remember any other games this year a team did it besides Houston Sunday....(I didnt read the whole thread so maybe it happened, but there is a very good reason teams rarely do it)

No offense to all the very smart people on this site who should be in college and the pros coaching football teams....but there is a reason they make millions

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#111
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:31:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hangloose:

Down 12 score a TD + Xp down 5   Down 11 TD + 2pt conv. down 3 miss it down 5.    You get the ball back with a minute or so, how much would you rather be trailing by 3 or 5 ?  If Houston missed the 2pt conv. the possibility of a game tying FG  was gone.  You have to wait till the latest moment possible to go for 2.    

You're saying down 12 assuming they miss the first conversion, if you assume they miss it then you have to assume they are gonna miss it when down 11 and score then try it. Either way down 5 points no difference except if they go for it earlier and miss then a FG is out of the question
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#112
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:39:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

The situation is assuming you are down 18 in the final qtr....

So, it is safe to assume you will be attempting 1 or even 2 onside kicks during this qtr....

So, it is safe to assume the opp will have a good chance to kick atleast 1 fg.....

 

Now...lets say you go for 2 after the 1st td, down 12 to try to make it a 10 point game....if you miss, then the opp gets a fg you are down 15 and not 14....

So now, you are ending up needing to go for 2 a 2nd time.....

 

I dont remember seeing many teams going for 2 down 12....in fact I cant remember any other games this year a team did it besides Houston Sunday....(I didnt read the whole thread so maybe it happened, but there is a very good reason teams rarely do it)

No offense to all the very smart people on this site who should be in college and the pros coaching football teams....but there is a reason they make millions


2 Pt conversions are successful around 48%. Percent chances of the first being successful is 48%. In the 52% chance that its unsuccessful and a second has to be attempted then the conversion success is 48% so .48 + (.52x.48) is .7296 or 72.96%. So that cancels that argument where the other team gets a FG at some point.
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#113
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:47:18 AM
Furthermore, if you get the 2 the first time and the other team gets a FG now 2 TD wins the game instead of ties if you kick the first XP. This was basically the case later in the game except the texans allowed too much time to run off before they made the Pats kick a FG, or more likely punt the ball if not for an awful defensive holding on Jackson. If not for the penalty they would have been getting the ball with over 4 minutes left. Down 10 and knowing they need a FG and TD+PAT or being down 12 and needing 2 TD's is much better than being Down 11 and unsure of what you need with a few minutes left
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#114
Posted: 1/16/2013 8:53:06 AM

I think there are too many pros, cons and unknowns to come up with absolutely one correct way to go about either of these situations. For me, I like to have options. Had Houston not completed the conversion succesfully they would have had no option but to score two touchdowns. Had they played it "safe" and kicked the point after they still would have had options. Ok, they still need a FG + TD + 2pt. Lets say they get back into the endzone but miss the 2pt. They still have a chance with another possession and TD. Convert and they're within a FG.

Now let's go with Houston with the ball down eleven facing 4th and 10 at the N.E.30 with 1:00 on the clock. They're still gonna need another possession.So do they not kick the fieldgoal and preserve the clock in fear that they won't convert the 2pt should they happen to get the ball back and find the endzone? Some of you are too smart for your own good. Like being down 12 is much better than being down 11 . First time I have heard that one ever in life. Good one!  

 

 

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#115
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:33:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SickCallREf:

I think there are too many pros, cons and unknowns to come up with absolutely one correct way to go about either of these situations. For me, I like to have options. Had Houston not completed the conversion succesfully they would have had no option but to score two touchdowns. Had they played it "safe" and kicked the point after they still would have had options. Ok, they still need a FG + TD + 2pt. Lets say they get back into the endzone but miss the 2pt. They still have a chance with another possession and TD. Convert and they're within a FG.

Now let's go with Houston with the ball down eleven facing 4th and 10 at the N.E.30 with 1:00 on the clock. They're still gonna need another possession.So do they not kick the fieldgoal and preserve the clock in fear that they won't convert the 2pt should they happen to get the ball back and find the endzone? Some of you are too smart for your own good. Like being down 12 is much better than being down 11 . First time I have heard that one ever in life. Good one!  

 

 

Please stick to forklift driving or whatever it is you do for a living.

The coaching world has enough morons already.

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#116
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:27:45 AM
I dont know how you deal with these people Van I would waste my day getting worked up over it  

Nobody even called out the guy talking about what if the 2pt was returned the other way then ATL would lead 26-9 

That might be dumber than people thinking that's actually you in your avatar 
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#117
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:29:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheRickterScale:

I don't know how this post got so out of hand.

Just reading the title "Atlanta should have gone for 2 up 26-7"

My opinion, no.

Being up 3 possessions there's no need to make the hard decision to go for 2. Let's just say worse case scenario atlanta recovers a fumble and scores 2, you're now up 26-9, 2 TDs and FG.

27-7 makes it 3 TD's guaranteed.

I don't know what you're not understanding here. The only inclination I have is ... I got nothing, the post doesn't make much sense.

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#118
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:36:11 AM
Nobody even called out the guy talking about what if the 2pt was returned the other way then ATL would lead 26-9

i didn't see that.  this thread is gold. 
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#119
Posted: 1/16/2013 12:35:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iceman67:


you're kidding right???

Yeah man. Bill Belichek is standing on the sideline thinking.

" I wonder if Joe Random, Phil Simms and Ian Eagle will criticize me if I decide to insert strategy X."
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#120
Posted: 1/16/2013 12:46:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

Nobody even called out the guy talking about what if the 2pt was returned the other way then ATL would lead 26-9

i didn't see that.  this thread is gold. 

No garbage only counts in ....Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...
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#121
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:00:37 PM
This thread is why I can't wait for the second internet poker boom in America.
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#122
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:52:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Sanchize5Ever:

This thread is why I can't wait for the second internet poker boom in America.

I hope I make it. 

I didnt make enough the first time around.  I thought it would last forever.

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#123
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:58:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I hope I make it. 

I didnt make enough the first time around.  I thought it would last forever.

Havent read any more about it Van. Is there any predicted date when it might happen? Anything else on sports gambling being legalized in more states?

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#124
Posted: 1/16/2013 8:34:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by antdante77:


2 Pt conversions are successful around 48%. Percent chances of the first being successful is 48%. In the 52% chance that its unsuccessful and a second has to be attempted then the conversion success is 48% so .48 + (.52x.48) is .7296 or 72.96%. So that cancels that argument where the other team gets a FG at some point.

 

I havent been able to find the stats on 2 pnt conver this year, but 48% so very, very high.  According to you and your theory, if that is correct, teams should go for 2 everytime.

Either way, your math is very wrong.  If you have a 48% chance the first time, you only have a 48% chance the 2nd time.  You dont add the first attempt.  That wouldnt make sense. 

You are trying to say you have a 73% of making a 2pnt conversion every 2 attempts

That is incorrect....teams would go for 2 everytime, because that means they would get a push 73% while having a 27% of making both and getting an extra 2 points, getting 4 instead of 2.

 

Sorry, but your math and theory of this is incorrect

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#125
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:21:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

I havent been able to find the stats on 2 pnt conver this year, but 48% so very, very high.  According to you and your theory, if that is correct, teams should go for 2 everytime.

Either way, your math is very wrong.  If you have a 48% chance the first time, you only have a 48% chance the 2nd time.  You dont add the first attempt.  That wouldnt make sense. 

You are trying to say you have a 73% of making a 2pnt conversion every 2 attempts

That is incorrect....teams would go for 2 everytime, because that means they would get a push 73% while having a 27% of making both and getting an extra 2 points, getting 4 instead of 2.

 

Sorry, but your math and theory of this is incorrect


No I am saying there is a 73% chance that they either convert the first 2 PT'er and therefore don't need to attempt another or Convert the 2nd if the 1st is missed 


Also yes there is a lot of clatter about teams considering going for 2 everytime. Oregon does this for the most part in college and perhaps Kelly will bring it to the NFL
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