Hey all, first post so flame away. I went 4-1 last week (I know it doesn't count because I didn't post them), winning with GB, BALT, SEA, and UNDER SEA vs. WASH, and losing with CINC.
Baltimore at Denver (-10)
This is actually one of my more confident plays. There are several reasons why:
1. We have seen team's emotional games this year and how they turn out
the week after. San Francisco plays a hugely emotional game at New
England, pulls it out, then gets stomped by the Seahawks the next week.
The Colts play their emotional game against the Texans, then get stomped
by the Ravens. The Vikings play their emotional game against the
Packers, then get worked by them the next week. Baltimore played their
emotional game at home last week....
2. Playing at home, in altitude, with a strong running game against a
weak rush defense. When Denver played Baltimore last, they put up over 150 yds
on the ground against them. Last week, the Colts lackluster running
game put up over 150 yds on the ground against them. Issues with Peyton
Manning in the cold? No problem. Denver should have no problem keeping it on
the ground.
3. Joe Flacco is awful on the road. Terrible. Peyton Manning is stellar
at home. But... but... the glove! Manning wore a glove against
Cleveland, put up a 70% completion percentage and 3 TDs. He also wore a
glove against KC, and put up an amazing 78% completion percentage and 3
TDs.
Green Bay Packers (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
This game could honestly go either way. There are a few primary reasons why I think Green Bay will win this game.
1. 49ers playing with a limited Justin Smith. Aldon Smith has not gotten
one sack since Justin Smith went down with a tricep injury. Justin
Smith is arguably the most underrated and important cog to the 49er
defense, and while he will be playing, he is limited. I am a huge
believer in defense carrying teams through playoffs, but without a
healthy Justin Smith, this defense is not the same.
2. Green Bay is healthy on defense and offense. With a limited Justin
Smith and Green Bay having all 4 healthy receivers, I see Aaron Rodgers
putting up large numbers.
3. If Aaron Rodgers does put up large numbers, this game will turn into a
shootout. Number 1: Who do you trust more in a shootout, Rodgers or
Kaepernick? Number 2: When does Kaepernick play like a rookie? I know he
is a second year player, but rookie as a starter. Kaepernick has had
fumbling issues, but the 49ers have been extremely lucky recovering
them. I think this is the game that SF regrets pulling Alex Smith.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
This is a hard game as well. This could easily go either way, but here
are some reasons why I think Seattle will pull this one out.
1. I have never felt Atlanta has been good this season. They have had
the 2nd easiest schedule out of the playoff teams (Colts had the
easiest). They pulled their starters for Week 17, and we know how that
has turned out for many playoff teams. I am definitely not an Atlanta
hater at all, but I have never had utmost confidence in them all season.
2. Matchups. Who has the best rushing offense in the playoffs? The
Seahawks. Who has the worst rushing defense in the playoffs? The
Falcons. The best matchup to watch will be the Seahawks DBs against
Roddy White and Julio Jones. I feel this matchup is a push. Also, what
team has Atlanta had the most trouble with this season? Carolina and Cam
Newton. I think both Marshawn Lynch and Russel Wilson have big days on
the ground.
3. Defense. Seattle has arguably the best defense in the league. Again,
I'm a huge believer in defense in the playoffs. Lynch/Wilson having big
days, combined with Seattle's stellar defense, spell trouble for the
Falcons.
Houston Texans (+10) at New England Patriots
I know the Patriots curb stomped the Texans earlier this year, and I
still believe the Patriots win, but I think Houston will cover the large
spread. People forget how great Houston was all year with their recent
slump. JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the league (with Von
Miller being a close runner-up). Arian Foster is the 2nd best running
back in the league (behind Adrian Peterson). If Matt Schaub can bring
any resemblance of being an NFL quarterback, the score should be closer
than people realize.
Hey all, first post so flame away. I went 4-1 last week (I know it doesn't count because I didn't post them), winning with GB, BALT, SEA, and UNDER SEA vs. WASH, and losing with CINC.
Baltimore at Denver (-10)
This is actually one of my more confident plays. There are several reasons why:
1. We have seen team's emotional games this year and how they turn out
the week after. San Francisco plays a hugely emotional game at New
England, pulls it out, then gets stomped by the Seahawks the next week.
The Colts play their emotional game against the Texans, then get stomped
by the Ravens. The Vikings play their emotional game against the
Packers, then get worked by them the next week. Baltimore played their
emotional game at home last week....
2. Playing at home, in altitude, with a strong running game against a
weak rush defense. When Denver played Baltimore last, they put up over 150 yds
on the ground against them. Last week, the Colts lackluster running
game put up over 150 yds on the ground against them. Issues with Peyton
Manning in the cold? No problem. Denver should have no problem keeping it on
the ground.
3. Joe Flacco is awful on the road. Terrible. Peyton Manning is stellar
at home. But... but... the glove! Manning wore a glove against
Cleveland, put up a 70% completion percentage and 3 TDs. He also wore a
glove against KC, and put up an amazing 78% completion percentage and 3
TDs.
Green Bay Packers (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
This game could honestly go either way. There are a few primary reasons why I think Green Bay will win this game.
1. 49ers playing with a limited Justin Smith. Aldon Smith has not gotten
one sack since Justin Smith went down with a tricep injury. Justin
Smith is arguably the most underrated and important cog to the 49er
defense, and while he will be playing, he is limited. I am a huge
believer in defense carrying teams through playoffs, but without a
healthy Justin Smith, this defense is not the same.
2. Green Bay is healthy on defense and offense. With a limited Justin
Smith and Green Bay having all 4 healthy receivers, I see Aaron Rodgers
putting up large numbers.
3. If Aaron Rodgers does put up large numbers, this game will turn into a
shootout. Number 1: Who do you trust more in a shootout, Rodgers or
Kaepernick? Number 2: When does Kaepernick play like a rookie? I know he
is a second year player, but rookie as a starter. Kaepernick has had
fumbling issues, but the 49ers have been extremely lucky recovering
them. I think this is the game that SF regrets pulling Alex Smith.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
This is a hard game as well. This could easily go either way, but here
are some reasons why I think Seattle will pull this one out.
1. I have never felt Atlanta has been good this season. They have had
the 2nd easiest schedule out of the playoff teams (Colts had the
easiest). They pulled their starters for Week 17, and we know how that
has turned out for many playoff teams. I am definitely not an Atlanta
hater at all, but I have never had utmost confidence in them all season.
2. Matchups. Who has the best rushing offense in the playoffs? The
Seahawks. Who has the worst rushing defense in the playoffs? The
Falcons. The best matchup to watch will be the Seahawks DBs against
Roddy White and Julio Jones. I feel this matchup is a push. Also, what
team has Atlanta had the most trouble with this season? Carolina and Cam
Newton. I think both Marshawn Lynch and Russel Wilson have big days on
the ground.
3. Defense. Seattle has arguably the best defense in the league. Again,
I'm a huge believer in defense in the playoffs. Lynch/Wilson having big
days, combined with Seattle's stellar defense, spell trouble for the
Falcons.
Houston Texans (+10) at New England Patriots
I know the Patriots curb stomped the Texans earlier this year, and I
still believe the Patriots win, but I think Houston will cover the large
spread. People forget how great Houston was all year with their recent
slump. JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the league (with Von
Miller being a close runner-up). Arian Foster is the 2nd best running
back in the league (behind Adrian Peterson). If Matt Schaub can bring
any resemblance of being an NFL quarterback, the score should be closer
than people realize.
Green Bay may not run the ball well against San Fran and they might be playing a one dimensional game with Aaron Rogers when they face San Fran on Sat. night. on the other hand, Packers' defense will have to deal with both Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick. And the physical nature of the Niners on both sides of football could wear down the Packers late in the 3rd Q and into 4th Q.
Green Bay may not run the ball well against San Fran and they might be playing a one dimensional game with Aaron Rogers when they face San Fran on Sat. night. on the other hand, Packers' defense will have to deal with both Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick. And the physical nature of the Niners on both sides of football could wear down the Packers late in the 3rd Q and into 4th Q.
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I am born and raised in sf, and your post couldnt be more on point in regards to gb and the niners. we are relying on a defense without a healthy j smith and who knows how kapernick is gonna play tommorow. Our Dbs have been suspect all year and rogers is hot right now. Beyond him being hot, he has a reason to want to beat us in regards to us drafting smith instead of him. norcal kid who went to cal and grew up a niners fan. He really wants this game. i like the niners to win but if they do it will be by three or less. BOL tommorow
I am born and raised in sf, and your post couldnt be more on point in regards to gb and the niners. we are relying on a defense without a healthy j smith and who knows how kapernick is gonna play tommorow. Our Dbs have been suspect all year and rogers is hot right now. Beyond him being hot, he has a reason to want to beat us in regards to us drafting smith instead of him. norcal kid who went to cal and grew up a niners fan. He really wants this game. i like the niners to win but if they do it will be by three or less. BOL tommorow
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