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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Green Bay Has No Chance this Weekend ***
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#101
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:18:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whodamanny76:

You're an idiot and I'm a 49er fan.

Probably someone bet heavily on the Packers and tried to reverse jinx the 49ers. 
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#102
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:25:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BrewCrew82:

Caveat: I'm a diehard Packers fan. 

However, I'm generally not biased and only bet GB 3-4 times a year when I have a good hunch they will cover This year I went 4-1 ATS in games I took GB (Win: Chi - 1st game, Hou, Tenn, and Minn playoff, LOSS, Minn reg season finale).

I see it as a toss up and will be a 3 point game. I just don't know who will win it. My quick breakdown. 

GB clear positional advantages: QB, WR
SF clear positional advantages: OL, DL, LB, RB

Secondary: Even (SF better tackling, GB better at covering)
Special Teams: Slight edge to SF based off superb coverage units. Obviously both are weak this year at kicker.

DVOA: 
Overall: SF: 4, GB: 5
Off rank: SF: 5, GB: 3
Def rank: SF: 2  GB: 8
ST rank: SF: 20, GB: 18

Bottom line, this has all the makings of a classic game. Anyone who is confident on either side is full of it. GB has their biggest advantage at the most important position on the field, which is QB (plus he has a chip on his shoulder). However, the crappy field conditions favor defense, which gives SF the advantage there.

In games that I feel are close, you take the points, BUT I don't think this is a good game to bet on the spread. I'm avoiding it. Gun to my head, GB only because I see it as a tight game. If it was in GB and they were favored by 3, I would say SF. Clearly I don't think homefield matters much in this matchup (GB won't be intimidated).

NICE JOB ON THE RANKINGS BUT YOU CAN THROW THEM OUT THE WINDOW.  GAMES COME DOWN TO MATCHUPS, AND THATS WHY NOBODY GOES 0-16. 

THREE OF THE FOUR GAMES THIS WEEKEND ARE BAD MATCHUPS, THIS IS ONE OF THEM FOR THE PACK.

SEATTLE OVER ATL. . .

PATS OVER HOUSTON.   IF YOUR NOT BUYING IT, SEE RAMS VS NINERS THIS YEAR IN BOTH GAMES.  MINNESOTA AND SEATTLE ARE THE OTHER TWO NINERS ARE HOPING TO AVOID.  GREENBAY IS DEADLY AGAINST SLOW TEAMS, THIS ISN'T ONE OF THEM. . .

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#103
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:27:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by horseplayer64:

I am with league capper the packers have protection issues and the niners pass rush at home is tough the only way to neutralize rodgers is to get to him Packers have had protections issues all year 

I couldn't resist....one more trivial statistic for all of you enthusiasts....SF is 35.1% on 3rd down conversion. GB is 43% on 3rd down conversions. Since this is the most relevant statistic in football, I thought I'd share.

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#104
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:33:49 PM
can someone tell me who the juice monkey is on SF side?  see below from earlier post.  is that a reference to Kapernik?  (sp.?)

 I was leaning GB.  They finally have their key D players back healthy.  I can see GB knocking off the juice monkey from SF!!!
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#105
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:39:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

I couldn't resist....one more trivial statistic for all of you enthusiasts....SF is 35.1% on 3rd down conversion. GB is 43% on 3rd down conversions. Since this is the most relevant statistic in football, I thought I'd share.

43% AGAINST AVG. DEFENSE WHICH NINERS ARE NOT.  MISLEADING DONT YOU THINK.

AND CONSIDERING KAP HASN'T PLAYED HALF THE SEASON, THAT 35% NUMBER IS ALSO MISLEADING NOT TO MENTION THAT GREENBAY IS VERY AVERAGE ON DEFENSE.  NICE EFFORT THOUGH

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#106
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:56:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by forkball:

43% AGAINST AVG. DEFENSE WHICH NINERS ARE NOT.  MISLEADING DONT YOU THINK.

AND CONSIDERING KAP HASN'T PLAYED HALF THE SEASON, THAT 35% NUMBER IS ALSO MISLEADING NOT TO MENTION THAT GREENBAY IS VERY AVERAGE ON DEFENSE.  NICE EFFORT THOUGH

Take out your Webster's Dictionary and look up the term, trivial.

Ad for your vaunted 49ers defense, they have a putrid 26 takeaways for the 2012 season and 7 out of the 16 weeks consisted of opponents such as the Rams, Cardinals, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Lovely.

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#107
Posted: 1/10/2013 1:31:27 AM
this is a tough game because it all depends what team shows up for the 9ers.
If the 9ers AND GB both have their best games...9ers win (defense and ability to run and have a balanced attack would make the difference).

HOWEVER, even though I lean 9ers, they have a habit of throwing up a very bad game every once in a while. Rams twice Giants, etc..

They are NOT consistent enough to make me that confident, but if they play there best ball and GB plays there best, 9ers are better.

Just my opinion.
I will add this...Kaepernick worries me, I saw it in the NE game (yes I know they won...barely) but Kaepernick looked like he was getting rattled and Harbaugh pulled the reigns in and had him throwing short SAFE passes...one that luckily broke for a TD late due to terrible tackling.

But Kaepernick will not last long, he is good, but not ready.

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#108
Posted: 1/10/2013 4:17:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professional1:

if smith was qb niners chances would be better. i do not trust the gazelle in a playoff game.
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#109
Posted: 1/10/2013 4:59:13 AM

 simple a.rod or c.kap?

all else is a even sided contest!

lean could go to the turnover margin in a close gm.

gottta go with the big game qb here! gl all!!

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#110
Posted: 1/10/2013 5:07:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

I couldn't resist....one more trivial statistic for all of you enthusiasts....SF is 35.1% on 3rd down conversion. GB is 43% on 3rd down conversions. Since this is the most relevant statistic in football, I thought I'd share.

validates my post the better qb play has an edge in the big game, sloppy field could even some of it out with a slick ball and turnovers, favoring the better run game but the field is poor for both teams so that too is a coin flip...i'll stay with the mvp canidate! bol all!  
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#111
Posted: 1/10/2013 5:12:49 AM

if the line does not move off niners -3 even more sd the books are getting good chalk $ and won't get hurt by a gb outright win! 

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#112
Posted: 1/10/2013 5:46:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Books already showing their hand. GB +3 is dead money.

SF to the NFC Championship, bank on it

i feel the line is so close because GB has a great chance on winning sat night if it were higher it would be a sign of a 4sure win but a 3point line is showing me it could go either way 
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#113
Posted: 1/10/2013 8:33:10 AM
i just dont see how this game will be any different than week 1.  the niners dominated the packers in the trenches and i cant see that scenario being any different.  i absolutely hate betting against aaron rogers, but whats right is right and the niners is the play.  that packer O line is hard to watch with how bad they are.
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#114
Posted: 1/10/2013 9:23:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

Take out your Webster's Dictionary and look up the term, trivial.

Ad for your vaunted 49ers defense, they have a putrid 26 takeaways for the 2012 season and 7 out of the 16 weeks consisted of opponents such as the Rams, Cardinals, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Lovely.

 

Dont forget to add in the Bears with Campbell....

They played 11 of their 16 games this year against teams in the bottom 50% of the NFL in offense

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#115
Posted: 1/10/2013 9:28:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Enough Stalker....you guys are getting old.  Ok, you disagree with everything I say I get it.

 

That clown comes in all my threads and says I make EXCUSE after EXCUSE for game after game. 

They played 17 games this year.  I said they took ONE game off.

If saying that for 1 out of 17 games means ALL i do is make excuses than whatever.  I didnt realize doing something 6% of the time makes it a true statement

"You make EXCUSES ALL THE TIME FOR EVERY GAME"= 1 out of 17 games....

WOW

 




I enjoy your insight PACK as you know your team better than most in here but sometimes you get too passionate about the team and lose focus of making money which is what we all here for.

Personally, I got a feeling we see the 49ers pull away in the 2nd half before Rodgers finds a way to close once more near the death which may set up a final possession chance at winning the game.
Niners defense is so big and athletic that they just going to make it hard for Rodgers to execute as he has been the past month or so.

49ers take this 34-24
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#116
Posted: 1/10/2013 9:39:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bobbys_pregame:




I enjoy your insight PACK as you know your team better than most in here but sometimes you get too passionate about the team and lose focus of making money which is what we all here for.

Personally, I got a feeling we see the 49ers pull away in the 2nd half before Rodgers finds a way to close once more near the death which may set up a final possession chance at winning the game.
Niners defense is so big and athletic that they just going to make it hard for Rodgers to execute as he has been the past month or so.

49ers take this 34-24

 

Its going to be a great game. 

I dont think any team has a CLEAR advantage. 

You can throw whatever stats out you want.  It doesnt matter when it comes to the game.  People claim GB has a "horrible" defense, but in fact they rank very close to SF in almost every category. 

As for offense, GB has the advantage even with the lack of running game.  This is the healthiest GB has been since week 3.

SF D played 11 games against AWFUL offenses this year, and has been shredded at the end of the year with similar offenses to GB.

I dont trust 1st start qbs in th playoffs.

I dont trust teams beating the same team twice in the same year.

I dont trust teams with byes.  The last few years, I am pretty sure teams with byes have been losing more than winning. 

I think SF is a great team, and if they win this game I will back them to win it all.

In my write-up, I said if this game is played 10 time, both teams win 5.  

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#117
Posted: 1/10/2013 10:34:36 AM
This is not a very good spot for GB.  They give up 5.6 yards per play on the road.  Their last 3 on the road bumps it up to 6 yards per play.  As far as points go, it's not any better away from Lambeau.  They give up 24 points a game, while again, it's bumped up to nearly 30 points a game their last three.

SF has been moving the ball at a clip of 6.4 yards per play at home, and 6.4 yards their last 3 home games. 

I see a 10 point win here for SF as the Pack is just a different defense on the road.
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#118
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:11:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:

Yeah bro, I stalked you all the way to LeagueCappers thread....which happened to be on the front page of the NFL Forum. You got me! Nice work.

Anyways, have you notice more people are telling you that they are sick of you, your antics, your obscene amount of emoticon usage? Notice a trend yet?

And getting back to your "lying". What you said I like O.J saying he isn't a murderer because he only killed two people. Justify it however you want but you just admitted to it.


It's guys like this clown that darn up everybody's fun.  It's one thing to disagree bro but dam you hate every single chance you get.  It's sportsbetting and the NFL....it's supposed to be fun and we are all supposed to be working together on sites like these because each gambler's guidance is all we really have against the "book".  Come on man splash a little sunshine in your face and drink a tall glass of water.

Ps..... I've always been a packer fan my whole life so yes i am bias.  But to say the PACKERS, with the best QB rating in playoff history in Aaron Rodgers and with our D finally tackling has no chance against a team who just had a bye and is starting a noob in Colin Kapernick??  San Fran fans.......I would be the worried ones.  You know Rodgers is gonna toss on that belt multiple multiple times.  Just be sure to have a few EXTRA beers to numb that pain in your behind.
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#119
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:41:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Dont forget to add in the Bears with Campbell....

They played 11 of their 16 games this year against teams in the bottom 50% of the NFL in offense

Oh yeah...I forgot about the al mighty Jason Campbell. However, in fairness, we should mention the top tier teams that SF's defense had to face including New Orleans, Minnesota, New England and Seattle. Oh wait....SF gave up 21, 24, 34 and 42 points, respectively. Nevermind.

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#120
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:42:26 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tuttle22:



It's guys like this clown that darn up everybody's fun.  It's one thing to disagree bro but dam you hate every single chance you get.  It's sportsbetting and the NFL....it's supposed to be fun and we are all supposed to be working together on sites like these because each gambler's guidance is all we really have against the "book".  Come on man splash a little sunshine in your face and drink a tall glass of water.

Ps..... I've always been a packer fan my whole life so yes i am bias.  But to say the PACKERS, with the best QB rating in playoff history in Aaron Rodgers and with our D finally tackling has no chance against a team who just had a bye and is starting a noob in Colin Kapernick??  San Fran fans.......I would be the worried ones.  You know Rodgers is gonna toss on that belt multiple multiple times.  Just be sure to have a few EXTRA beers to numb that pain in your behind.

 

Oh man, youre in big trouble now

KTRAIN is NEVER WRONG

Now youre going to be attacked by him, Theone1, kaysersoze, porkdinner, riq and all the other Giants/SF fans come attacking and blasting every thread youre in now

Its funny, they are allowed to give their opinions and throw out stats about a game, but once you do it....they claim youre "a homer, dbag, ahole, ruining the site....AND EVEN CLAIM TO HATE YOU"

How sad is your life if someone on covers.com can make you so angry

And, one of the reasons is because I use emoticons

But, to call out the ALL POWRFUL and PERFECT Ktrain

 

Funny thing is the guys claim im only a homer and know nothing, yet im up 135 units this year in football and 5-1 in packer games

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#121
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:44:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

Oh yeah...I forgot about the al mighty Jason Campbell. However, in fairness, we should mention the top tier teams that SF's defense had to face including New Orleans, Minnesota, New England and Seattle. Oh wait....SF gave up 21, 24, 34 and 42 points, respectively. Nevermind.

 

I cant make threads like that...cause im just a homer and get bashed for it...

Glad someone else notices the skewed stats

11 of 16 games against 16th or worse offenses

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#122
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:46:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thawv:

This is not a very good spot for GB.  They give up 5.6 yards per play on the road.  Their last 3 on the road bumps it up to 6 yards per play.  As far as points go, it's not any better away from Lambeau.  They give up 24 points a game, while again, it's bumped up to nearly 30 points a game their last three.

SF has been moving the ball at a clip of 6.4 yards per play at home, and 6.4 yards their last 3 home games. 

I see a 10 point win here for SF as the Pack is just a different defense on the road.

 

So, GB allowed 24 ppg on the road...

They also scored 25 ppg on the road

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#123
Posted: 1/10/2013 11:48:56 AM

I would be more worried about this game if Smith was starting

I would be more concerned about this game if GB was the team coming off a bye

I would be more worried about this game if my team was the home team, higher seed, coming off a bye and only giving 3 or 2.5

 

If GB was at home and laying 3 or 2.5.....i would bet SF to win

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#124
Posted: 1/10/2013 12:19:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

I would be more worried about this game if Smith was starting

I would be more concerned about this game if GB was the team coming off a bye

I would be more worried about this game if my team was the home team, higher seed, coming off a bye and only giving 3 or 2.5

 

If GB was at home and laying 3 or 2.5.....i would bet SF to win


Over the past 4 seasons as a bettor there is no team I have followed closer than the Arod led Packers.  I agree 100% with each of the above statements.  I feel this will be a tight game and the Packers have the better odds of winning this game.  GL on the weekend 
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#125
Posted: 1/10/2013 1:40:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tuttle22:



It's guys like this clown that darn up everybody's fun.  It's one thing to disagree bro but dam you hate every single chance you get.  It's sportsbetting and the NFL....it's supposed to be fun and we are all supposed to be working together on sites like these because each gambler's guidance is all we really have against the "book".  Come on man splash a little sunshine in your face and drink a tall glass of water.

Ps..... I've always been a packer fan my whole life so yes i am bias.  But to say the PACKERS, with the best QB rating in playoff history in Aaron Rodgers and with our D finally tackling has no chance against a team who just had a bye and is starting a noob in Colin Kapernick??  San Fran fans.......I would be the worried ones.  You know Rodgers is gonna toss on that belt multiple multiple times.  Just be sure to have a few EXTRA beers to numb that pain in your behind.

First of all, ask LGP1234 what I said to him in his national title thread. Ask him if I gave him credit for calling the game correctly and basically having the correct score until Bama brought in the subs. Ask him if I gave him credit for that one. Go ahead. 

If you don't know the history and you don't know what you're talking about, then you shouldn't speak about a situation. 

Have you read LGP's "Giants Advance" thread? I'm guessing you haven't. Have you read his threads from last years NFL season where he stated the Lions woudn't make the playoffs and then did? I'm guessing not.

 Maybe you should do some research before making these statements. There is a long list of people that are tired of LGP's antics and it isn't just me and it isn't just in this thread. 

You are the first person that has defended him. I think that speaks volumes right there. 

I give credit where/when it is due. Check my thread history if you want. Ask Pack about his national title thread. I also call out b.s. where/when it is due. Like internet tough guys that invite people to confrontations in their home town, then bash others as internet tough guys. 

If you want some insight on a game wager than here it is. This game is a toss up at 3 in my opinion. You can (depending on your book) get San Fran at upwards of +110. Take San Fran at that point. Green Bay money very well move this line to -2.5 though. 
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