Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: give me an argument against the packers next week
brodeur
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
brodeur
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 361
Location: United States
#26
Posted: 1/8/2013 10:32:53 AM

San Francisco was 10-1 this season when holding opponents under 100 yards on the ground.  Packers lack the talent at the running back position

 

quote
Fazool
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Fazool
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 268
Location: New Jersey
#27
Posted: 1/8/2013 10:38:36 AM
I agree with the lack of the GB running game, they have no chance if they can't move the ball on the ground. SF defense going to be too physical for GB to overcome.
quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#28
Posted: 1/8/2013 10:41:07 AM

Sea and Ne shredded SF through the air....

No reason GB cant do the same with more weapons

Its going to be a great game....

Winner of this, wins the superbowl

quote
brodeur
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
brodeur
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 361
Location: United States
#29
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:10:11 AM

NE was down 31-3 and SF changed up the Defense and played more of a prevent style in the second half so I'm not to worried about that, and as for Seattle, it was a great let down spot for SF after the big win in NE..Plus it was a must win for Seattle and SF had Arizona on deck to wrap up the division title..

I agree it will be a great game though...

quote
LM5545 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LM5545
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 27
Location:
#30
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:15:16 AM
Can't............it's not about handicapping in this one........it's strictly about your luck as in most playoff games. 
quote
brodeur
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
brodeur
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 361
Location: United States
#31
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:16:27 AM
49ers use the read option and the pistol formation, and the  Packers haven't faced a team that uses the read option all season, nor have they played against the pistol formation much...I also believe Harbaugh has been holding the big plays back for the post season. The biggest concern for SF is how effective an injured Justin Smith will be...
quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16717
Location:
#32
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:22:12 AM
Some of you guys need to get over this myth that you need to be good at running the ball in the playoffs to be win. There is no better correlation to winning the deeper you get into the playoffs than having a top tier QB. Since the NFL put it the illegal contact rule in 2004 and changed the league into a pass league here are the rushing offenses that have made the Super Bowl in terms of efficiency and where they have ranked:

4.0   (24)
3.5   (32)
4.1   (18)
3.8   (25)
3.5   (30)
4.5   (7)
3.7   (29)
3.4   (32)
4.6   (3)
4.1   (14)
4.0   (16)
3.8   (23)
4.7   (2)
4.0   (12)
4.4   (10)
4.1   (18)

Average of 4.0 YPC and ranking of 18th. Only three Top 10 rush efficiency offenses made the Super Bowl in eight years. Seven Bottom 10 efficiency offenses have made the Super Bowl over that same time. ONE Super Bowl team in the last 4 years has averaged more than a mediocre 4.1 YPC.

It's a passing league. You win this time of year by passing the ball and stopping the pass. It's not the 1970's anymore guys. Running the ball and physical play are good things to have but if you can't sling it you're in trouble.

Here's a few more bits of info: Green Bay was 4th in OPP QB completion % allowing just 55%. They were 8th in YPA at 6.7, and they were 4th in OPP QB rating at 76.8 (better than SF). This alleged bad defense finished Top 8 in the three most important pass defense categories despite their best pass rusher missing 5 games, their #2 CB missing 7 games, and their defensive leader missing 9 games.

Hear a lot of talk about Green Bay's bad O-line: San Francisco finished 2nd last in opp sack %. They had a worse % than Arizona did! Green Bay has the advantage on the other side as well as they rank 4th in sack % (with their best pass rusher missing 5 games) while SF is 14th.


There are myths and then there are facts.


quote
brodeur
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
brodeur
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 361
Location: United States
#33
Posted: 1/8/2013 11:34:46 AM

well last week, the only team that doesn't run the ball well that won is GB..although I agree its a passing league, teams do tend to run more in the post season than the regular season. Running gets you into the post season as well...Starting this years playoff, there are only 3 teams that don't run well..

There was not 1 300 yard passer in the first round..

quote
riq send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
riq
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 781
Location: California
#34
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:15:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

Sea and Ne shredded SF through the air....

No reason GB cant do the same with more weapons

Its going to be a great game....

Winner of this, wins the superbowl

 

You tool, this is your only argument. I've seen it 10 times in this forum already. Use your brain, ONLY reason that NE "shredded" San Fran's D is because they were down 31-3 half way through the third quarter and SF started playing prevent D. GB has absolutely no running game, whereas NE and SEA have damn good running games. GB is so one dimensional, and all their pitiful fans are so happy that they made a comeback in the soft asss North division ooowwweeeee. You're such a sad annoying homer who thinks he's so savy cause you use stupid emoticons and are so confident in what you say.

Get over yourself.

 

quote
amd send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
amd
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 29424
Location: California
#35
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:32:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riq:

 

You tool, this is your only argument. I've seen it 10 times in this forum already. Use your brain, ONLY reason that NE "shredded" San Fran's D is because they were down 31-3 half way through the third quarter and SF started playing prevent D. GB has absolutely no running game, whereas NE and SEA have damn good running games. GB is so one dimensional, and all their pitiful fans are so happy that they made a comeback in the soft asss North division ooowwweeeee. You're such a sad annoying homer who thinks he's so savy cause you use stupid emoticons and are so confident in what you say.

Get over yourself.

 

....and I've seen this in the forum 50 times, already. Green Bay is like 80% of the teams in the NFL, pass first, run second. Everyone wants to sound like an intellect by saying Green Bay can't run but it really seems like most everyone rode the shortbus because they're not smart enough to realize Green Bay only changed up their personnel a couple of weeks ago on the offensive line and backfield. And, who the darn cares if they don't run? In 17 weeks of football, Green Bay failed to score more than 21 points only  TWICE with a one dimensional offense. Green Bay's QB is Aaron Rodgers. Kaepernik plays for the red team.

quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#36
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:59:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riq:

 

You tool, this is your only argument. I've seen it 10 times in this forum already. Use your brain, ONLY reason that NE "shredded" San Fran's D is because they were down 31-3 half way through the third quarter and SF started playing prevent D. GB has absolutely no running game, whereas NE and SEA have damn good running games. GB is so one dimensional, and all their pitiful fans are so happy that they made a comeback in the soft asss North division ooowwweeeee. You're such a sad annoying homer who thinks he's so savy cause you use stupid emoticons and are so confident in what you say.

Get over yourself.

 

 

 

Ok....so let me make sure I get what people are saying here....

SO....

The only reason NE came back is because they went hurry up and started PASSING THE BALL....

AND.....

Since GB has a bad run game, they will need to PASS THE BALL....

Therefore, SF will stop them

WOW.....you people are so smart

SF is GREAT against the run.....thats fine, GB doesnt need to run the ball....

Thanks for proving my point

You people are such clowns....all you talk about is how bad GB runs the ball, but rfuse to realize SF struggles against the PASS which is what GB does BEST

quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#37
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:02:40 PM

Since their streak in 2010 winning their last 6 games....

GB is 34-7 in their last 41 games without any run game....why will it matter all of a sudden??

quote
GMoney247 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
GMoney247
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 270
Location: United States
#38
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:14:29 PM

First of all, throw the Seattle game out the window because that was a bad letdown spot for niners... Back to back primetime games after flying cross country beating Captain America at home in December and having the emotional roller coaster that game was then playing in the toughest environment in the NFL against a division rival trying to clinch a playoff spot! I don't think anyone wins both those games, granted they got spanked but the blocked field goal was a back breaker. Those of you that say running game isn't important are tools! Yeah maybe on the season teams that don't have running games can win, but anyone making a run in the playoffs have to have some kind of running game. You have to keep a defense as good as San Francisco honest with some kind of run game, or Rodgers will be put under pressure all game and be forced into making bad throws. SF has 2 very good pass rushers on the outside in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks (who is very underrated IMO)... SF is by far the best tackling team in the league and the packers like to get a lot of yards after the catch which won't happen against this d...

Harbaugh and his staff knew who they were playing this week, they're not stupid! Everyone knew Green Bay Frisco 2nd round was a lock and they are THE BEST STAFF IN NFL! They will have a great gameplan to make life easy on Kaep in the get go to shake off the playoff nerves... I believe they will put him in a great position to succeed and will give the packers a look they haven't seen all year! Joe Webb is no Kaepernick, and he will give them fits with the read option (LaMichael James anyone) and playaction (Frank Gore anyone)... Michael Crabtree is a legit # 1 reciever playing the best football of his career and Randy Moss will make a play against the Packers ( he may moon their sidelines afterwards too lol)

This game reminds me so much of last year's game 49ers vs Saints... Brees > Smith was all I heard going into that game, but there is much more to football then just a qb. Niners D is best in the league, and the run game favors 49ers big time...

quote
tothemoney send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
tothemoney
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 397
Location:
#39
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:19:16 PM
The most sacked QB in the league Aaron Rodgers
49ers very rough and aggressive pass rush
All top qbs have their worse games against SF
49ers get constant pressure with 4 rushers

Even with all that said I think GB can still win but they have to run the football for some balance and on defense keep Kap in the pocket somehow
quote
Sicsemper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Sicsemper
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 334
Location:
#40
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:19:40 PM
Big time Giant fan here. Maybe next year! Why I believe SF will win. First, home game for them, second, better "D" then the Pack, third, better "D" than Vikings "D" who held Rogers to 23/33, which Pack WR's were only able to grab 10 of them (4 Jennings - 3 Nelson), 4th, although Ponder is no Dan Marino if he was able to QB, the Minny Game would have been different. Not saying they would have won but the play calling would have been different b/c Webb can't throw worth a crap and the Pack were able to stack the box and shut peterson down, and lastly SF is more balanced offensively and with the better "D". Final score prediction SF 24 GB 13
quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#41
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:28:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GMoney247:

First of all, throw the Seattle game out the window because that was a bad letdown spot for niners... Back to back primetime games after flying cross country beating Captain America at home in December and having the emotional roller coaster that game was then playing in the toughest environment in the NFL against a division rival trying to clinch a playoff spot! I don't think anyone wins both those games, granted they got spanked but the blocked field goal was a back breaker. Those of you that say running game isn't important are tools! Yeah maybe on the season teams that don't have running games can win, but anyone making a run in the playoffs have to have some kind of running game. You have to keep a defense as good as San Francisco honest with some kind of run game, or Rodgers will be put under pressure all game and be forced into making bad throws. SF has 2 very good pass rushers on the outside in Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks (who is very underrated IMO)... SF is by far the best tackling team in the league and the packers like to get a lot of yards after the catch which won't happen against this d...

Harbaugh and his staff knew who they were playing this week, they're not stupid! Everyone knew Green Bay Frisco 2nd round was a lock and they are THE BEST STAFF IN NFL! They will have a great gameplan to make life easy on Kaep in the get go to shake off the playoff nerves... I believe they will put him in a great position to succeed and will give the packers a look they haven't seen all year! Joe Webb is no Kaepernick, and he will give them fits with the read option (LaMichael James anyone) and playaction (Frank Gore anyone)... Michael Crabtree is a legit # 1 reciever playing the best football of his career and Randy Moss will make a play against the Packers ( he may moon their sidelines afterwards too lol)

This game reminds me so much of last year's game 49ers vs Saints... Brees > Smith was all I heard going into that game, but there is much more to football then just a qb. Niners D is best in the league, and the run game favors 49ers big time...

 

WOW....be careful with those kind of "excuses".....I get KILLED on this site because I said GB had a game off against NY this year after a big win at Detroit and I STILL GET CREAMED for it....

I 100% understand where you come from, but 90% of people on this site dont understand how that happens...

As for your comments I disagree....many teams do it without the run now.  GB does plenty of screens to the RB, and WR screens and swing passes that have the result of runs.  They run just enough. 

As for the SF run against us.  Call me crazy, but I think the pistol favors GB.  As seen, GB cant stop a power runner right at them.  They are smaller upfront, but they have crazy speed on the outside.  I know Webb isnt kaep, but we shut down the Qb run while also shutting down AP. 

 

Either way, its going to be an awesome game.  Like I said, I think this winner, wins it all

If SF wins, they will need to score 24+.  Im not sure they can do that

quote
GMoney247 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
GMoney247
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 270
Location: United States
#42
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:54:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

WOW....be careful with those kind of "excuses".....I get KILLED on this site because I said GB had a game off against NY this year after a big win at Detroit and I STILL GET CREAMED for it....

I 100% understand where you come from, but 90% of people on this site dont understand how that happens...

As for your comments I disagree....many teams do it without the run now.  GB does plenty of screens to the RB, and WR screens and swing passes that have the result of runs.  They run just enough. 

As for the SF run against us.  Call me crazy, but I think the pistol favors GB.  As seen, GB cant stop a power runner right at them.  They are smaller upfront, but they have crazy speed on the outside.  I know Webb isnt kaep, but we shut down the Qb run while also shutting down AP. 

 

Either way, its going to be an awesome game.  Like I said, I think this winner, wins it all

If SF wins, they will need to score 24+.  Im not sure they can do that

Yeah i know what youre saying, no excuses just letdown spot... Seattle ran them out the stadium, thats not debatable, just the circumstances of that game being changed to primetime changed the dynamic... but anyways, Green bay throws quick bubble screens all the time on 1st downs as a different way to "run" the ball, but they are counting on YAC yards... San Fran has the best tackling team in the league, and hardly ever do you see missed tackles by that defense... Team speed is crazy on their D with Willis and Bowman all over RBs and quick screens so thats not gonna get them much yardage, and goldson and whitner are two of the best hitting safeties in the league.

Niners don't run the pistol all the time, and when they do it was with kendall hunter, now LaMichael James. The read-option is not a very big part of the offense, just another added dimension. 49ers play power football. They pull guards and tackles all the time and run down hill between the tackles. So if GB can't stop power then how are they gonna stop Gore? Yes, they were able to stop Webb's option and contain peterson, but webb can't throw well enough to keep 8 out of the box.... if GB puts 8 in the box, crabtree, moss, davis, walker, someone will make a play. Since Kaepernick has become starter niners points 32, 31, 13, 27, 41, 13, 27... Only 2 teams were STL and SEA both division opponents. Throw those 2 games out and niners avg 31.6 pts/game with Kaepernick, so I think 24 pts is easily possible... I think its the best game of the week just like niners saints last year.

quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#43
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:04:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GMoney247:

Yeah i know what youre saying, no excuses just letdown spot... Seattle ran them out the stadium, thats not debatable, just the circumstances of that game being changed to primetime changed the dynamic... but anyways, Green bay throws quick bubble screens all the time on 1st downs as a different way to "run" the ball, but they are counting on YAC yards... San Fran has the best tackling team in the league, and hardly ever do you see missed tackles by that defense... Team speed is crazy on their D with Willis and Bowman all over RBs and quick screens so thats not gonna get them much yardage, and goldson and whitner are two of the best hitting safeties in the league.

Niners don't run the pistol all the time, and when they do it was with kendall hunter, now LaMichael James. The read-option is not a very big part of the offense, just another added dimension. 49ers play power football. They pull guards and tackles all the time and run down hill between the tackles. So if GB can't stop power then how are they gonna stop Gore? Yes, they were able to stop Webb's option and contain peterson, but webb can't throw well enough to keep 8 out of the box.... if GB puts 8 in the box, crabtree, moss, davis, walker, someone will make a play. Since Kaepernick has become starter niners points 32, 31, 13, 27, 41, 13, 27... Only 2 teams were STL and SEA both division opponents. Throw those 2 games out and niners avg 31.6 pts/game with Kaepernick, so I think 24 pts is easily possible... I think its the best game of the week just like niners saints last year.

 

I agree with everything you say.  I think SF is a great team.  And, if they win this game, I will bet them the next two games as well. 

I just like our match-up and chances.  What I have seen from SF at the end of the year, their defense doesnt scare me as much as it once did. 

Like I said in my write-up, if SF wins this game, it wont be because of their defense.  SF will need to score. 

This week, I like GBs chances to outscore SF.

This game determines the superbowl winner

quote
idle_havoc
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
idle_havoc
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 2696
Location: Netherlands
              Antilles
#44
Posted: 1/8/2013 3:40:46 PM
SF fan here but I don't have any faith in Ackers and I can see him missing the game winning FG

HOPE I'M WRONG
quote
riq send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
riq
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 781
Location: California
#45
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:06:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

 

Ok....so let me make sure I get what people are saying here....

SO....

The only reason NE came back is because they went hurry up and started PASSING THE BALL....

AND.....

Since GB has a bad run game, they will need to PASS THE BALL....

Therefore, SF will stop them

WOW.....you people are so smart

SF is GREAT against the run.....thats fine, GB doesnt need to run the ball....

Thanks for proving my point

You people are such clowns....all you talk about is how bad GB runs the ball, but rfuse to realize SF struggles against the PASS which is what GB does BEST

 

Hahahaha you're so blind and delusional its comical . So you think SF will be in prevent D all game? GREAT POINT.

You're a clown, saying SF struggles against the pass, they're 4th in the NFL in passing D 1st in the NFC, maybe you should do some discount double checking on your stats there tool 

Haha your idiotic reasoning never seems to amaze me, you're just a wanna be Boom on this site.

quote
LETGOPACK1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: GTbets.eu |
LETGOPACK1234
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 9466
Location: Illinois
#46
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:16:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riq:

 

Hahahaha you're so blind and delusional its comical . So you think SF will be in prevent D all game? GREAT POINT.

You're a clown, saying SF struggles against the pass, they're 4th in the NFL in passing D 1st in the NFC, maybe you should do some discount double checking on your stats there tool 

Haha your idiotic reasoning never seems to amaze me, you're just a wanna be Boom on this site.

 

Another tough guy with a keyboard.  You guys are so tough with insults.

As for stat-checking....

You mean the 49ers 4th best pass defense that faced a WHOOPING 5 teams in the Top 15 of the NFL this year in offense    13 games against offenses 15th and below

Not too shabby when HALF your games are against the bottom of the NFL in production

8 games against Zona, Zona, Rams, Rams, Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Bears(backup)......I hope you are a top defense \

If you want to go off stats, GB was 5 spots behind SF

 

Youre right.  The ONLY reason NE came back was SF was if prevent....even after 4 straight scores all prevent

 

 

quote
AllSteelRoots
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AllSteelRoots
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 1202
Location: Mississippi
#47
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:47:53 PM
They don't need to run the ball allot when you have Rodgers at QB.....

GB will get enough running yards to win the game.  They score with the passing game.  And they will run the ball to keep Willis honest and burn them with Play Action.  

  It gets to the playoffs and all the regular season stats go out the window.  Never fails....
quote
mrquija27 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: betED.com |
mrquija27
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 2580
Location: Michigan
#48
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:55:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by idle_havoc:

SF fan here but I don't have any faith in Ackers and I can see him missing the game winning FG

HOPE I'M WRONG

Mason Crosby has been worse this year.

quote
macjizzle send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
macjizzle
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 19
Location:
#49
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:57:08 PM
gb wins
quote
tommyirish send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
tommyirish
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 173
Location: Northern
              Mariana Islands
#50
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:01:30 PM
Green Bay has a horrible offensive line and can't protect Rodgers if they can't run the ball which they will not be able to against the SF defense.  They got man handled by the Giants who had a great pass rush and SF who has a great run defense.
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.