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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Wildcard Weekend
Tonez248 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:36:17 PM
Good info, I like your picks with GB and WSH.

Cin +4.5
GB -7.5
Wsh +3

I just have a feeling Luck will pull a backdoor cover on BAL, but in any case I am staying away from this one.
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#52
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:42:52 PM
Michfan15 - I'm not sure how much Ray's return will give the Ravens a boost. I think at the end of the day it's a playoff game and the Ravens and crowd were going to be juiced anyway. At the same time though this man no question gets every last ounce of energy out of his teammates. I think his on-field presence and keeping the guys focused will be the biggest factor.


p-lane1 - This play was bet on 5Dimes where the -7.5 at standard juice was available for much of the week. There is no agenda here at all. When I post I almost always (unless i'm on the fly) post the currently avaliable line at most major books even if it's slightly worse than the one I actually bet. I've bet some games this year that I haven't posted or said something along the lines of "i'd lean that way but not after the line move" because I always found it shady posting lines that just aren't avaliable anymore. I keep a record only because of accountability but the main reason I post is to share how I feel about a game. Don't want it to sound like I know everything because I still don't know a whole lot. I've also been someone who is much more interested in writeups and reasoning behind plays than the actual plays themselves.

When I first came to this website I read a ton of analysis from other posters and it didn't matter if they were right or wrong or if I agreed or not. The point was these people were giving out free insight on how they approach games and in some cases were opening my eyes regarding things to look for in the future. The people that post fancy titles, bump their threads every couple hours, and just have bets with no reasoning offer no value whatsoever. I try not to be one of those guys. If I was interested in touting I would go to twitter, get a bunch of followers, rarely post a record, and delete some losing bets like some of the guys who have gone to twitter do.

GL.
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SportsFreak69
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#53
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:51:44 PM
Best of Luck
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Rain_Man
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#54
Posted: 1/4/2013 5:54:58 PM
Love all your picks, GL
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#55
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:50:05 AM
nice job buddy ... good picks ... 
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#56
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:03:52 AM
A. Toronto is the best city in the world.
B. Vikings Money line

GL happy new year
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#57
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:06:47 AM
damn Dumped, that girl is FINE

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#58
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:48:35 AM
Christina Aquilera
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TDUB888
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#59
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:22:30 AM
gl Andy solid writeups. agree with much of what you have to say only vary on one, like the seadogs on sunday
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#60
Posted: 1/5/2013 5:18:08 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Hope we both win as well. I think you could tease the SEA/WSH game both ways and probably win. Should be a very good game.

I'm not sure those numbers are deceiving though. I don't look at things like total rush yards because they are entirely dependent on how many times a team gets run on. For example Seattle had the 2nd fewest carries against them so it's only natural they don't give up many total rush yards or TD's. I care about efficiency so that's why I look at YPC which measures how effective teams are doing on average each time they run the ball or get run on. A team that gives up 15 carries at 4.5 a clip will give up 68 yards. But at 25 carries that number goes to 113 yards.

Seattle has played 10 games this season where teams have run on them more than 20 times (which Washington will do in this game) and they've given up 127 yards per game at 4.7 YPC. That 127 yards would put them 24th in the league in terms of average rush yards given up per game.

Something else interesting is Seattle has also played 10 games this season against teams ranked in the top half of the league in rush attempts (meaning they are more run heavy than average) but against those more run-oriented teams Seattle has given up 128 yards per game at 5.2 YPC. I see a lot of Seahawks backers saying they will stack the box to stop the Skins run game but the thing is they should have done that against all the other more run-oriented teams they've played and even if they have they haven't been able to stop the run. I mean 5.2 YPC in this situation over 10 games is pretty terrible and this week they face the team that has run more than anyone this year. Full disclosure is that Washington in the same situation is not much better at 4.9 YPC although the same size is much smaller.

I'm not saying Washington is the greatest team ever or Seattle is a huge fraud. I'm aware the Skins have holes and Seattle is probably be the better team. If these teams met on a neutral field and played 100 times Seattle is going to win more games. But in the situation with these teams with the same record, Seattle on the road, Seattle off some big wins that IMO aren't as impressive as they looked, Seattle having some very overlooked matchup problems, and WSH winning 7 in a row with a 7-2 ATS record as dogs I believe the fair line should have been WSH -1.5 or 2.


Rambling I know.


 

For making me read your novel, I have to throw 2 more things at you....

 

According to Massey Ratings Seattle had the #1 defence and the 4th toughest schedule. Washington 19th defence and 15th SOS.

 

No Washington opponent has had a defensive ranking higher than 14th this year.

 

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Hoyasaxa
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#61
Posted: 1/5/2013 6:30:41 AM

Boy do I totally agree and I'm taking a prop for a Defensive TD for both GB and Balt-expected time 3rd qtr-halfway thru-watch for the pick 6's....as these young QB's get desperate and the covers get salted away...

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#62
Posted: 1/5/2013 6:34:35 AM
andarmac99 I agree with your Baltimore analysis, I think Minny is getting overlooked by a lot of people, look back to the game vs Houston, peterson, 25 carries 86 yards, far from stellar, the defense has been getting pressure and turnovers, houston is also one of the best defenses vs the run, yet minny still destroyed them at their place. Peterson will probably get 125 to 150 yards and this game will be very close imo.  I am gonna be on Minny +pts and the ML...GL
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#63
Posted: 1/5/2013 8:31:10 AM
Looks good, Andy! I see you finally decided to stop messing with my Bengals. ;) Sadly, I'm a little worried about this game. Bengals did it to themselves though. They choked away three games they had in the bag. And that Ray Rice 4th and 28 play....that's another main reason cincy didnt take the North and sit in a cushy home game against the Colts instead of traveling as the 6 seed.

I'm having a nice run in bowl games, so it opened up a few bucks for me for the NFL playoffs. Passing on HOU game as I have crazy Bengals props from August for AFC and SB. Looks doubtful at this moment and from the 6 seed and likely future matchups....impossible to hedge!

GB and BALT games were tough for me. I like GB but don't trust them laying 8. And the other game I've been saying for last two months "I'm fading Baltimore and Indy 1st round regardless." Of course they are playing each other. Anyway took a two team tease like a newbie. GB -1.5 and Balt -1.

Final game took Seattle -3. I would say I'm 100 percent super confident, but I'm a little worried that the last two games wore down Seattle a bit.

Conspiracy theory FIX OF THE DAY question: ok, we all know the NFL is creaming their pants for a peyton manning vs his old team and Luck matchup round 2. For that to happen, Indy needs to win and Cincy needs to lose. Does ANYONE think the refs are "partial" in any way towards Houston and Indy???
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gary69
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#64
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:42:49 AM
A lot of great info in this thread,one thing I've noticed is that both Balt and Indy seem to play at the same level of their opposing team(couple of exceptions for both of course) I see neither team in a rush to score points here. I think both teams will try to keep their offense on the field as long as possible. With this reasoning I have to take the Colts with the points
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#65
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:53:10 AM

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#66
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:54:37 AM
Andarmac is the farthest thing from a tout....bol in the playoffs buddy

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#67
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:25:21 AM
Bol to us all!!
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#68
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:47:06 PM
Mac,
Great stuff as always! Some things never change. 

Consider scaling back on the Pack. Never, EVER, trust a team that just let its opponent into the playoffs. This will be the third time these two have played in the last month, and rest assured, it will be a nail biter.
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#69
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:58:53 PM
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#70
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:12:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PistolPete21:

Mac,
Great stuff as always! Some things never change. 

Consider scaling back on the Pack. Never, EVER, trust a team that just let its opponent into the playoffs. This will be the third time these two have played in the last month, and rest assured, it will be a nail biter.

The last time it happened--division winners meeting in the playoffs where the one allowed its opponent to squeak into the playoffs the final week of the season--was in 2010 when the Bears didn't finish the Pack off when they had the chance. Fast forward to the NFC Championship game, and the road warrior Pack dispatched the Bears with relative ease.
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#71
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:15:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PistolPete21:


The last time it happened--division winners meeting in the playoffs where the one allowed its opponent to squeak into the playoffs the final week of the season--was in 2010 when the Bears didn't finish the Pack off when they had the chance. Fast forward to the NFC Championship game, and the road warrior Pack dispatched the Bears with relative ease.

And the time before this, in 2009, the Eagles had a chance to end the Cowboys season in Week 17. They instead rolled over and chose to "take it easy." One week later, in the NFC Wild Card, the Cowboys smoked the Eagles. 
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#72
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:25:58 PM
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#73
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:49:43 PM

I'm on Cincy +4 and ML and am likely gonna take GB Under for the nightcap.

I think the GB game is going down to the wire, I think they win between 3-10 points, hope it works out for us.  Cheers!

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#74
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:15:58 PM
GL andarmac

glad we're on the same plays
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#75
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:23:26 PM
Awesome writeups. Thanks for sharing andarmac.
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