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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Wildcard Weekend
coldsnap55
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#26
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:19:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Washington +3

I said this last week and I’ll say it again: It’s a dirty little secret but Seattle can definitely be run on. There are only 5 teams in the league that gave up more YPC than the Seahawks did this season. It’s still early but most reasoning I’ve seen from Seattle backers so far says they will contain the Skins run game. Not sure why those people believe that because the numbers suggest they won’t. 

I see this as being a little decieving.

Seattle is 10th overall in rushing yards allowed and only 4 teams have allowed fewer rushing TDs than Seattles 8.

On the other side with Seattle +7 and Gr. Bay - 2 1/2 in a 7 point teaser I grabbed when the opening line came out so.........

Perhaps we will both win.

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#27
Posted: 1/2/2013 4:41:34 PM

Andarmac,

 

Great write-ups.

I am already convinced that  the ATS  picks are :

GB

BAL

CIN

I'm still capping this one and I love SEA all year but ultimately that ain't gonna serve up the Benjamins!

Sidebar: You are so right in the fact that at least Caldwell knows Rice is on his roster and Here's to collecting the money "GANGNAM-STYLE"!

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#28
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:24:55 PM
 BOL Pal!
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#29
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:37:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Great write-ups Mac....def with you on GB and BAL...lean Seattle but you make some great points on the Skins. Value is def with them, may just end up laying off that one. If the Seahawks do win, I will be all over them against the Falcons, I think they match-up extremely well with them. Should be a good game.

Any lean on the Cincy game? I lean Bengals, this Houston team is just reeling and Cincy truly has a top 5 defense that should give this Houston team fits. Not a huge fan of Dalton but he should play better his second time around. Don't think they have to put up too many points to beat this Houston team, just need to play a mistake free game and I think their D will make some plays.



Hey buddy I really don't have a feel for the CIN/HOU game at all. I can make a good case for either team. I agree with your take on Cincy. They are young and really improving and shouldn't be intimidated by this environment because they played here last year. This is a team on the way up. Houston is reeling no doubt but there's always the chance they pull it together and look like the team from the first 3 months of the season. If this game was a month ago what would the line be? Tough game here and I'll be taking a pass.

I think the Falcons next weekend are the best bet of the playoffs. I don't care who they play at this point I think they wax them. This team has been crapped on all season yet all they've done is win their big games. I've hit them down the stretch and I will bang them again against Wshington or Seattle (or Minny if they pull a huge upset). No one believes in this Falcons team at all. When all the "experts" come out with their Super Bowl picks this week on the various networks I'd be surprised if any picked Atlanta. Is Atlanta good enough to beat a SF/GB and DEN/NE combo? No, I don't believe they are. But are they good enough to win a statement "we're getting over this fugged playoff hump" game at home against a very public dog Skins or Seahawks team? I think they certainly are.

GL bro. Looking forward to the playoffs.
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#30
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:53:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Junior316:

Sick write-ups. Very detailed and correct. Hope your right on the Packers since that's my team it's just always scary playing a team coming hot to the playoffs.

We know San Fran, Atlanta and Green Bay are the best playoff teams from the NFC but the hottest teams are probably Seattle/Washington/Minnesota


Yes those teams are all the hottest but they don't have any real playoff experience. There just isn't any substitute for playoff experience. If you look at the teams that have gotten 'hot" and won the Super Bowl the last few years they have two things in common: 1. Playoff experience (especially at the QB position) and 2. Most of them (such as the 2005 Steelers, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants) all had significant injuries during the regular season. I always find it somewhat comical how the mainstream media believes these teams suddenly get hot or "flip the switch" when the reality was these were very talented teams that just happened to get key players back and healthy for the playoff run.

Minnesota. Seattle, and Washington have no playoff experience and were not riddled with key injuries this season. I"ll be betting against all 3 of these teams.
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#31
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:55:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

I thought the same thing about Minnesota. They just played their best game of the season and now have to go outdoors to play the same team on their terms. It's a lot of wood to lay, but it's there for a reason.

Baltimore looks like the right side, although Indy's inexplicable ability to win or at least cover games they shouldn't has me leery.

There's a ton of reasons not to like Seattle this weekend, but most will turn a blind eye toward them.

Any thoughts on Houston/Cinci ? That's a tough one for me too, although I can see a play on the under 43 making sense. Both teams are very conservative by nature, and if the they can defend against the occasional big pass play (Dalton to Green, Shaub to Johnson) this game has a lot of field goals coming.

Andarmac 




Nice thoughts Getty. Obviously I agree.

Wish I had seen your Jags thread before about the 3rd quarter last week if I would have bet double on the Titans.

GL.
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#32
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:




Nice thoughts Getty. Obviously I agree.

Wish I had seen your Jags thread before about the 3rd quarter last week or I would have bet double on the Titans.

GL.
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#33
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:08:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Dont overthink the Indy game.  Flacco will have 2-3 costly ints that wiill turn the tide and the gritty Luck will have a solid performance. It's all about the qb play and I will pick Luck over Flacco. Balt might still win the game, but it will be down to the wire.  Indy ML is a great play here, but if you have some doubts, pick Indy +6.5


I'll take Luck over Flacco in a heartbeat over the long run. But regarding this game Flacco has been pretty damn good at home over the course of his career and it's not like he's facing a dominate defense here either.

Since the start of his 2nd season Flacco has played 33 home games and has a TD-INT ratio of 52-17. He's thrown an INT at home once every 2 games. A tremendous ratio.
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#34
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:11:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Great write-ups, was on the Skins last week and will probably go back to the well this week- people saying Seahawks are the hottest team in the league yet no one remembers the Skins 7-game win streak I believe

Lean Texans as well

Haven't looked into the games in too much detail yet but your write-ups are a great primer to get some thoughts going on the games 



Looking forward to your thoughts throughout the playoffs bud.


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#35
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:14:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by horseplayer64:

Great write ups! Thanks for the insight, I was thinking the same thing on the Seahawks  defense being vulnerable to the run which is what the skins are all about if I can get 3.5 I will play the skins, maybe still at three. I think the packers will win can they cover more than one touchdown? Think they might but I thought they really blew that game last week and the D layed down in the fourth qtr. Indy has been overachieving all year does it continue? Old colts vs new colts? I don't know the colts ride has lasted longer then I thought it would already I'm leary on this one, and the bengals D could be the end of the texans but the bengals and lewis have a history of one and done in the playoffs.



You sound not too confident on 3 of the 4 games. Only make a bet if you believe team X beats the price you play over the long run enough times to turn a profit.

GL.
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#36
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:20:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:



TURNOVER MARGIN:
Baltimore #8
Indianapolis #26

Luck: 18 INTs (should've been 19 if the replay ref didn't blow a call), 9 Fumbles
Flacco: 10 INTs, 9 Fumbles

You're turnover angle doesn't hold any water in my eyes. 

Luck hasn't thrown a pick in the past 3 games

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#37
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:40:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coldsnap55:

I see this as being a little decieving.

Seattle is 10th overall in rushing yards allowed and only 4 teams have allowed fewer rushing TDs than Seattles 8.

On the other side with Seattle +7 and Gr. Bay - 2 1/2 in a 7 point teaser I grabbed when the opening line came out so.........

Perhaps we will both win.



Hope we both win as well. I think you could tease the SEA/WSH game both ways and probably win. Should be a very good game.

I'm not sure those numbers are deceiving though. I don't look at things like total rush yards because they are entirely dependent on how many times a team gets run on. For example Seattle had the 2nd fewest carries against them so it's only natural they don't give up many total rush yards or TD's. I care about efficiency so that's why I look at YPC which measures how effective teams are doing on average each time they run the ball or get run on. A team that gives up 15 carries at 4.5 a clip will give up 68 yards. But at 25 carries that number goes to 113 yards.

Seattle has played 10 games this season where teams have run on them more than 20 times (which Washington will do in this game) and they've given up 127 yards per game at 4.7 YPC. That 127 yards would put them 24th in the league in terms of average rush yards given up per game.

Something else interesting is Seattle has also played 10 games this season against teams ranked in the top half of the league in rush attempts (meaning they are more run heavy than average) but against those more run-oriented teams Seattle has given up 128 yards per game at 5.2 YPC. I see a lot of Seahawks backers saying they will stack the box to stop the Skins run game but the thing is they should have done that against all the other more run-oriented teams they've played and even if they have they haven't been able to stop the run. I mean 5.2 YPC in this situation over 10 games is pretty terrible and this week they face the team that has run more than anyone this year. Full disclosure is that Washington in the same situation is not much better at 4.9 YPC although the same size is much smaller.

I'm not saying Washington is the greatest team ever or Seattle is a huge fraud. I'm aware the Skins have holes and Seattle is probably be the better team. If these teams met on a neutral field and played 100 times Seattle is going to win more games. But in the situation with these teams with the same record, Seattle on the road, Seattle off some big wins that IMO aren't as impressive as they looked, Seattle having some very overlooked matchup problems, and WSH winning 7 in a row with a 7-2 ATS record as dogs I believe the fair line should have been WSH -1.5 or 2.


Rambling I know.


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#38
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:45:46 PM
great write ups, couldn't agree more.   
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#39
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:04:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

YTD: 50-37 ATS

Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -0.31 units

Not a bad year so far. I've still got two Denver futures on the go at +900 to win the AFC and +2500 to win the Super Bowl. I took these when the Broncos were at their absolute lowest. The idea was to play with the numbers in the playoffs as I was buying low but I think the plan now is to let them ride. The schedule certainly went in their favor but this is a damn good football team. This situation has played out beautifully. Posted in #38 here: 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101444330&page=2


Green Bay -7.5

Well I’ve bet against Minnesota two weeks in a row and said the key was Ponder playing well. He played well in Houston and followed that up with by far the best game of his career last week. I ‘m going to dare him to play well for the 3rd game in a row in this one. But this time the situation is quite a bit different for Ponder where he’s out on the road, in the cold, playing his first career playoff game. I think he has nowhere to go but down off his career game last week.

Minnesota did win last week but here’s the problem: Ponder played a career game, Peterson ran for 200 yards, the energy in the building supporting the Vikes was tremendous, and they still only won on a FG at the buzzer. Now the scenario flips and the Vikes won’t be able to feed off the home crowd and they will have to play in a hostile environment. Minnesota did win their last two road games (although the Houston win doesn’t look as impressive now that the Texans appear to be completely melting down) but prior to that they played 5 road games against playoff teams and went 0-5 ATS losing by 10.4 PPG. In their other road game they beat Detroit despite not scoring a single offensive TD and compiling just 227 yards of offense. Obviously teams want to make the playoffs and no doubt will be pumped but for Minnesota I think they may have a hard time recapturing some of that electricity that was in the dome last week. They may have shot their load especially considering this is a
short week.

Green Bay has waited a year for this game. They were knocked out of the playoffs in their first game at home last season in a bitter loss considering they had a 15-1 season going. I like having my money on a veteran team after suffering a bad loss in the playoffs the previous year. Green Bay is better than Minnesota let’s not kid ourselves. They should come out hot and fired up in this one. When these two teams met in Lambeau a month ago the Packers won by 9 points but they dominated the game as they put up 450 yards and had the ball for 17 more minutes than the Vikes. Green Bay also went 0fer in the redzone in that one which looks like a fluke considering they are the 3rd best redzone offense in the league while Minny’s redzone D is 27th. That was also a game Peterson ran for 210 yards and it didn’t really matter in the end. Also worth noting Nelson got hurt early, Jennings was still rusty and Matthews, Shields, and Woodson (may be back this week) didn’t suit up for the Pack.

The Pack are healthy now and IMO should win this game by a comfortable margin. Nice season for Minny but I don’t believe they are good enough to hang around in this
scenario.

All very good points, well thought out article, unlike most squares on here that start quoting meaningless YPG (for the year! no less), etc....

For me, I put a lot of weight on "let down" spots, and this is a serious let down spot for Minny.......all that hype on AP trying to break eric dickerson's record, AND trying to qualify for the big dance on top off it. I did pick Minny last week, which I had as a close game. I think Minny has a big letdown this week, GB rolls...........GL, and thanks for your thoughts.
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#40
Posted: 1/2/2013 8:20:45 PM
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#41
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:54:43 PM
i stopped reading at 'needed a fg at the buzzer' went and dropped some guap on packers -6.5 bought a point 
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#42
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:01:42 PM
loved the rest, im seeing over 80% of bets are comign in on the colts and line still hasn't moved.  also what do you make of ray announcing his retirement today, weds.  MT bank stadium will be rocking so hard this weekend
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#43
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:17:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

YTD: 50-37 ATS

Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -0.31 units

Not a bad year so far. I've still got two Denver futures on the go at +900 to win the AFC and +2500 to win the Super Bowl. I took these when the Broncos were at their absolute lowest. The idea was to play with the numbers in the playoffs as I was buying low but I think the plan now is to let them ride. The schedule certainly went in their favor but this is a damn good football team. This situation has played out beautifully. Posted in #38 here: 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101444330&page=2


Green Bay -7.5

Well I’ve bet against Minnesota two weeks in a row and said the key was Ponder playing well. He played well in Houston and followed that up with by far the best game of his career last week. I ‘m going to dare him to play well for the 3rd game in a row in this one. But this time the situation is quite a bit different for Ponder where he’s out on the road, in the cold, playing his first career playoff game. I think he has nowhere to go but down off his career game last week.

Minnesota did win last week but here’s the problem: Ponder played a career game, Peterson ran for 200 yards, the energy in the building supporting the Vikes was tremendous, and they still only won on a FG at the buzzer. Now the scenario flips and the Vikes won’t be able to feed off the home crowd and they will have to play in a hostile environment. Minnesota did win their last two road games (although the Houston win doesn’t look as impressive now that the Texans appear to be completely melting down) but prior to that they played 5 road games against playoff teams and went 0-5 ATS losing by 10.4 PPG. In their other road game they beat Detroit despite not scoring a single offensive TD and compiling just 227 yards of offense. Obviously teams want to make the playoffs and no doubt will be pumped but for Minnesota I think they may have a hard time recapturing some of that electricity that was in the dome last week. They may have shot their load especially considering this is a
short week.

Green Bay has waited a year for this game. They were knocked out of the playoffs in their first game at home last season in a bitter loss considering they had a 15-1 season going. I like having my money on a veteran team after suffering a bad loss in the playoffs the previous year. Green Bay is better than Minnesota let’s not kid ourselves. They should come out hot and fired up in this one. When these two teams met in Lambeau a month ago the Packers won by 9 points but they dominated the game as they put up 450 yards and had the ball for 17 more minutes than the Vikes. Green Bay also went 0fer in the redzone in that one which looks like a fluke considering they are the 3rd best redzone offense in the league while Minny’s redzone D is 27th. That was also a game Peterson ran for 210 yards and it didn’t really matter in the end. Also worth noting Nelson got hurt early, Jennings was still rusty and Matthews, Shields, and Woodson (may be back this week) didn’t suit up for the Pack.

The Pack are healthy now and IMO should win this game by a comfortable margin. Nice season for Minny but I don’t believe they are good enough to hang around in this
scenario.
   where did u get 7half for a line, miracle world? I had/ and always set up shop on the 2 early books : betonline opened at 8 went to 8half quick.  Your a good read as i always stop by and comment very little, but your lines are a stretch on a day2day basis. Jus the truth
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#44
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:21:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by p-lane1:

   where did u get 7half for a line, miracle world? I had/ and always set up shop on the 2 early books : betonline opened at 8 went to 8half quick.  Your a good read as i always stop by and comment very little, but your lines are a stretch on a day2day basis. Jus the truth

It's -7.5(-110) right now on 5Dimes. 



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#45
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:23:47 PM

excellent excellent excellent

Add in that Indy is the only team in the playoffs that has been outscored and is the only 11 win team in NFL history to be outscored and they are worse on the road. All this while having the easiest schedule. BIG BIG on balt

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#46
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:39:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:


It's -7.5(-110) right now on 5Dimes. 



It is now, but NOt when this thread was started, thats my point!  7half was NOT the opening line anywhere until NOW, thats my point. and i have access to all offshore early birds.  My point is the same touts cut corners and post lines that are NOT available at "that time".  carryon    do garbage the right way
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#47
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:49:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by p-lane1:

It is now, but NOt when this thread was started, thats my point!  7half was NOT the opening line anywhere until NOW, thats my point. and i have access to all offshore early birds.  My point is the same touts cut corners and post lines that are NOT available at "that time".  carryon    do garbage the right way

Wrong, it was -7.5 at 5Dimes when he posted. You must not understand that a lot of books have it as -9 or -9.5 (with + odds) to protect against teasers. The 'real' line is -7.5 to - 8 everywhere. 
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#48
Posted: 1/4/2013 2:04:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by p-lane1:

It is now, but NOt when this thread was started, thats my point!  7half was NOT the opening line anywhere until NOW, thats my point. and i have access to all offshore early birds.  My point is the same touts cut corners and post lines that are NOT available at "that time".  carryon    do garbage the right way

nepatriots_12 is correct. 

The line was at various times(including the time the OP posted his initial post) -7.5(-110) on New Year's Eve, New Year's Day yesterday and today. 

Andarmac99 is no tout. 

Perhaps you need to participate with some different books to get the best line.

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#49
Posted: 1/4/2013 2:15:08 PM
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#50
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:12:27 PM
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