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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Wildcard Weekend
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:09:39 PM
YTD: 50-37 ATS

Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -0.31 units

Not a bad year so far. I've still got two Denver futures on the go at +900 to win the AFC and +2500 to win the Super Bowl. I took these when the Broncos were at their absolute lowest. The idea was to play with the numbers in the playoffs as I was buying low but I think the plan now is to let them ride. The schedule certainly went in their favor but this is a damn good football team. This situation has played out beautifully. Posted in #38 here: 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101444330&page=2


Green Bay -7.5

Well I’ve bet against Minnesota two weeks in a row and said the key was Ponder playing well. He played well in Houston and followed that up with by far the best game of his career last week. I ‘m going to dare him to play well for the 3rd game in a row in this one. But this time the situation is quite a bit different for Ponder where he’s out on the road, in the cold, playing his first career playoff game. I think he has nowhere to go but down off his career game last week.

Minnesota did win last week but here’s the problem: Ponder played a career game, Peterson ran for 200 yards, the energy in the building supporting the Vikes was tremendous, and they still only won on a FG at the buzzer. Now the scenario flips and the Vikes won’t be able to feed off the home crowd and they will have to play in a hostile environment. Minnesota did win their last two road games (although the Houston win doesn’t look as impressive now that the Texans appear to be completely melting down) but prior to that they played 5 road games against playoff teams and went 0-5 ATS losing by 10.4 PPG. In their other road game they beat Detroit despite not scoring a single offensive TD and compiling just 227 yards of offense. Obviously teams want to make the playoffs and no doubt will be pumped but for Minnesota I think they may have a hard time recapturing some of that electricity that was in the dome last week. They may have shot their load especially considering this is a
short week.

Green Bay has waited a year for this game. They were knocked out of the playoffs in their first game at home last season in a bitter loss considering they had a 15-1 season going. I like having my money on a veteran team after suffering a bad loss in the playoffs the previous year. Green Bay is better than Minnesota let’s not kid ourselves. They should come out hot and fired up in this one. When these two teams met in Lambeau a month ago the Packers won by 9 points but they dominated the game as they put up 450 yards and had the ball for 17 more minutes than the Vikes. Green Bay also went 0fer in the redzone in that one which looks like a fluke considering they are the 3rd best redzone offense in the league while Minny’s redzone D is 27th. That was also a game Peterson ran for 210 yards and it didn’t really matter in the end. Also worth noting Nelson got hurt early, Jennings was still rusty and Matthews, Shields, and Woodson (may be back this week) didn’t suit up for the Pack.

The Pack are healthy now and IMO should win this game by a comfortable margin. Nice season for Minny but I don’t believe they are good enough to hang around in this
scenario.
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#2
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:13:15 PM
Baltimore -6.5

When trying to make a case for Indianapolis there is really one question that needs to be asked: What do they do better than Baltimore?  Or: Where do they have the advantage?

On offense the Colts may have the better longterm QB but for this season the Ravens are the better offensive team across the board. They score more points, they are more efficient throwing it, they are substantially better running it, and they are better in the redzone. They may actually be better on offense than the numbers suggest as most of that was with the terrible Cam Cameron calling plays. Caldwell may not be much better, time will tell, but you’d think the Ravens use the run to set up the pass in this matchup against a terrible Colts run defense. If that happens you can set up play action with Flacco hitting the deep stuff, unlike a Cam Cameron game where he usually just throws deep first and forgets about the run game. Baltimore has the advantage in every area on offense.

Defensively the Ravens also hold the edge in every category. Again they give up fewer points, they are more efficient in pass defense, they are the #2 redzone defense in the league, and they are substantially better against the run as they rank #8 in YPC while Indianapolis is 31st giving up over 5 yards per carry. I don’t think
there’s any question that no matter how you look at it the Ravens have the better defense.

So the Ravens are better in every significant facet offensively and defensively. Can Indy make up the ground on special teams? The answer is probably not. While the Colts aren’t bad on special teams, the Ravens are superb. According to Football Outsiders Baltimore has the #1 special teams in the league this season. This special teams unit is also the 3rd best of any team in the league since the year 2000. I don’t see any edge here for the Colts either. In fact special teams are actually a big edge for the Ravens.

What about turnovers? Can the Colts win that battle? Turnovers can be somewhat fluky (especially fumbles) so it’s often tough to predict who will cough it up but the pattern here favors Baltimore again and by a big margin. The Ravens have only turned the ball over 7 times all season at home. Indianapolis on the other hand has given up the football 20 times on the road! No edge here for Indy with another big check mark in favor of the Ravens.

What about playoff and big game experience? Yeah this isn’t even close. Baltimore by a country mile. It will be interesting to see how the young Colts handle this atmosphere.

What else is left? Coaching? Pagano was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens last year so that may give the Colts an edge though it is somewhat diminished because Pagano installed the exact same defensive scheme in Indianapolis. We don’t even know what to make of Pagano as a tactical coach. He’s only been in that role for 4 games. Too much of a wildcard to even speculate. I’d call this a push at worst (considering Harbaugh has won playoff games in every season as a coach).

I don’t see a single edge Indianapolis has in this game. You could argue they’ve got emotion on their side and momentum but how much emotion can they carry on the road after a very emotional, energetic home game? Pagano beat cancer and is back now; could there actually be a hangover? Indianapolis has had a great year but
they’ve also overachieved. I don’t think they are as terrible as the stats guys make them out to be because coming back and coming through in the clutch actually means a lot but at the end of the day you’ve got a young team playing over their heads going on the road to face a veteran battle-tested group that has edges across
the board.

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#3
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:16:18 PM
Washington +3

I said this last week and I’ll say it again: It’s a dirty little secret but Seattle can definitely be run on. There are only 5 teams in the league that gave up more YPC than the Seahawks did this season. It’s still early but most reasoning I’ve seen from Seattle backers so far says they will contain the Skins run game. Not sure why those people believe that because the numbers suggest they won’t. Not only is Seattle not efficient stopping the run but they face a Skins team with the best run offense in the league. Seattle has a great run game of their own but they aren’t better than Washington. Washington even has the better rush defense. Any way you look
at it the Redskins hold the edge in the run game on both sides of the ball. Griffin may be banged up but he still did damage with his legs last week and he should be healthier will another week to heal. He was mobile last week after not being able to do anything the week before.

Seattle has the better defense there’s no doubt. But I see a problem that can be exploited. Why is the Seahawks defense so good? Because they are young, fast, and very aggressive. Sounds good but against the zone read and block, cutback, style of offense Washington plays it’s actually a bad thing IMO. When you are young, fast, and aggressive you can over pursue and good game planners can use that against you. This Skins offense is built on the cutback and getting guys to over pursue. The Seattle style of defense actually plays right into Washington’s hands. Seattle’s secondary is great but the matchup is also one that fits Washington’s style of play. The secondary is also aggressive and if the Skins can keep pounding the run and Griffin runs those great play fakes where even camera guys don’t know where the ball
is I believe there will be plays to be made against the Seattle safeties if they get too aggressive and bite on the fakes. It’s not as if Seattle can line their corners up and take away the main receivers for the Skins either because Washington doesn’t rely one on or two guys, they spread the ball around all over the field. The Redskins top 4 receivers all have between 38-48 catches and 510-633 yards. Griffin does not rely on one or two guys and is extremely good at spreading the ball around. Paulsen has also come on at TE since Fred Davis went down.

Seattle is getting a lot of respect based on some recent blowouts though. They creamed the Cards in a game the Cards turned the ball over time and time again. Arizona also lost 11 of their last 12. This beating is not as impressive as it may look from a distance. The Buffalo beating also isn’t as jaw-dropping as it may appear. The
Bills were coming off a game where they blew a last minute led and were eliminated from the playoff contention. It was a natural letdown spot and on top of that the game was played in the dead atmosphere of Toronto. If anyone thinks this was a true road game they need their heads examined. No one in Toronto gave two shitts about this game and it didn’t even sellout. The highlight of the game of Psy’s performance of Gangnam Style at halftime. Bills players said after the game how bad the atmosphere is in the Toronto games and how they are tired of playing there. There have been some rumors the Bills mailed in the game and raised such a big stink afterwards because they don’t want the Toronto games extended past this year as officials have to decide whether to extend the series this offseason. It was a good performance from Seattle but again it wasn’t nearly as impressive as it looks. The SF win also looked impressive and was by the far best of the big blowouts and I won’t take away too much from that but let’s be realistic, the Niners just played on the other side of the country and left a ton on the field in a back and forth statement game against New England. The announcers even said during the SF/SEA game that Harbaugh noticed the Niners were quiet and subdued all week because they just had no energy left and how it’s tougher to get up off a huge emotional win than it is a loss. Great win but San Fran just wasn’t anywhere near 100% ready for the game.

It’s a topic that will be beat to death but needs to be addressed: Seattle on the road. The facts are they just haven’t gotten the job done on the road and they haven’t for years. 3-5 this year on the road and really its 2-5 because that Buffalo game was NOT anywhere close to a real road game. Sure they haven’t been getting
blown out but they haven’t been winning either. It’s fair to wonder if they are good enough to win a road game on the east coast, on grass, in what will be an absolutely electric atmosphere. Seattle’s struggles on the road this year have a lot to do with the defense choking late and blowing leads. In the Week 1 loss the defense gave up a late TD and they lost. The same thing happened against the Lions. Against Miami they blew a 7 point 4th quarter lead and lost in regulation. They did win the Chicago game by coming back and lost in the shuffle was they let Chicago go down the field to get the tying FG to force OT. They also blew a 4th quarter lead in the Fail Mary game and flirted with the same thing last week before the Rams threw a pick in the endzone.

Give me the home dog in this one that just so happens to have won 7 in a row. If Seattle wins a road game in this environment as road chalk I will pay to see it.


GL this week gents.
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#4
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:44:23 PM
Great breakdowns as always, I played a 7 point teaser GB -2.5 to Wash +10 and will probably fire on Wash $$line. 
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#5
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:54:43 PM
Great write-ups Mac....def with you on GB and BAL...lean Seattle but you make some great points on the Skins. Value is def with them, may just end up laying off that one. If the Seahawks do win, I will be all over them against the Falcons, I think they match-up extremely well with them. Should be a good game.

Any lean on the Cincy game? I lean Bengals, this Houston team is just reeling and Cincy truly has a top 5 defense that should give this Houston team fits. Not a huge fan of Dalton but he should play better his second time around. Don't think they have to put up too many points to beat this Houston team, just need to play a mistake free game and I think their D will make some plays.

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#6
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:13:37 PM
Most of the profits from last week's Titans -4 shall be on the Ravens -6.5. 

I won't be on anything else, but Good Luck to you on the rest of your card. 


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#7
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:21:06 PM
Sick write-ups. Very detailed and correct. Hope your right on the Packers since that's my team it's just always scary playing a team coming hot to the playoffs.

We know San Fran, Atlanta and Green Bay are the best playoff teams from the NFC but the hottest teams are probably Seattle/Washington/Minnesota
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#8
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:23:58 PM
I thought the same thing about Minnesota. They just played their best game of the season and now have to go outdoors to play the same team on their terms. It's a lot of wood to lay, but it's there for a reason.

Baltimore looks like the right side, although Indy's inexplicable ability to win or at least cover games they shouldn't has me leery.

There's a ton of reasons not to like Seattle this weekend, but most will turn a blind eye toward them.

Any thoughts on Houston/Cinci ? That's a tough one for me too, although I can see a play on the under 43 making sense. Both teams are very conservative by nature, and if the they can defend against the occasional big pass play (Dalton to Green, Shaub to Johnson) this game has a lot of field goals coming.

Andarmac 

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#9
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:51:42 PM
as soon as you throw out cincy, i think we are going to agree on all four of these.

good luck. 
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#10
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:08:17 PM
Nice write-ups. Big Seattle fan but I agree value seems to be with Skins for all reasons mentioned above. One thing that probably has to be factored in is how much more confident the coaches seem to be in RW and taking the reins off, no denying he is playing at a completely different level than even a month ago. Combined with banged-up RGIII I do think they have a decent chance to win straight up but I can't lay points after years of seeing the same story unfold with this team on the road. Stay-away game for me.
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#11
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:24:21 PM

You’re  the best!

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#12
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:40:30 PM
Good Luck..I like GB and Ravens as well
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#13
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:47:33 PM
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#14
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:03:16 PM
Dont overthink the Indy game.  Flacco will have 2-3 costly ints that wiill turn the tide and the gritty Luck will have a solid performance. It's all about the qb play and I will pick Luck over Flacco. Balt might still win the game, but it will be down to the wire.  Indy ML is a great play here, but if you have some doubts, pick Indy +6.5
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#15
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:20:45 PM

Like them all

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#16
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:25:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Dont overthink the Indy game.  Flacco will have 2-3 costly ints that wiill turn the tide and the gritty Luck will have a solid performance. It's all about the qb play and I will pick Luck over Flacco. Balt might still win the game, but it will be down to the wire.  Indy ML is a great play here, but if you have some doubts, pick Indy +6.5


TURNOVER MARGIN:
Baltimore #8
Indianapolis #26

Luck: 18 INTs (should've been 19 if the replay ref didn't blow a call), 9 Fumbles
Flacco: 10 INTs, 9 Fumbles

You're turnover angle doesn't hold any water in my eyes. 

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#17
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:06:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Dont overthink the Indy game.  Flacco will have 2-3 costly ints that wiill turn the tide and the gritty Luck will have a solid performance. It's all about the qb play and I will pick Luck over Flacco. Balt might still win the game, but it will be down to the wire.  Indy ML is a great play here, but if you have some doubts, pick Indy +6.5

Luck is more turnover prone than Flacco. Regardless, Flacco won't even have to win the game himself...expect a heavy dose of Ray Rice against that swiss cheese Colts run D. 

Foster ran for 6.0 YPC last week and Charles had a staggering 10.3 YPC and 226 yards the week before. 

As long as Baltimore has half decent play calling, this one shouldn't be close. 
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#18
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:16:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Dont overthink the Indy game.  Flacco will have 2-3 costly ints that wiill turn the tide and the gritty Luck will have a solid performance. It's all about the qb play and I will pick Luck over Flacco. Balt might still win the game, but it will be down to the wire.  Indy ML is a great play here, but if you have some doubts, pick Indy +6.5

Your right, it will come down to the QB Play since QB Passer Rating has the highest correlation to winning at about 80%.

Flacco - 87.7

Luck - 76.5

And to make matters worse for Luck, he did it against pathetically weak opponents.

Ravens defense - 80.6

Colts defense - 90.1

Not sure how anyone could reach a conclusion that Luck will out-play Flacco this weekend unless of coarse your a Colts and Luck fan......................................................

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#19
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:20:24 PM

My power ratings point spreads......................................

Packers - 11.8 over Vikes

Ravens -12.98 over Colts

Skins -2.22 over Seahawks

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#20
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:57:18 PM
YTD 132-124 = 51.5%

My power rating spreads:

HOU  4.9 over CIN

GB   13.6 over MIN

BAL 17.6 over IND

WAS 0.8 over SEA

Versus the spread, I like Washington, even if Cousins has to finish the game.  I lean to Cinncy over Houston.  I expect Green Bay and Baltimore to win blowouts.


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#21
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:05:08 PM
Great insight! Bol!
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#22
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:33:00 AM

Great write-ups, was on the Skins last week and will probably go back to the well this week- people saying Seahawks are the hottest team in the league yet no one remembers the Skins 7-game win streak I believe

Lean Texans as well

Haven't looked into the games in too much detail yet but your write-ups are a great primer to get some thoughts going on the games 

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#23
Posted: 1/2/2013 4:27:10 AM
great read 
BOL 
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#24
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:43:05 AM
Great write ups! Thanks for the insight, I was thinking the same thing on the Seahawks  defense being vulnerable to the run which is what the skins are all about if I can get 3.5 I will play the skins, maybe still at three. I think the packers will win can they cover more than one touchdown? Think they might but I thought they really blew that game last week and the D layed down in the fourth qtr. Indy has been overachieving all year does it continue? Old colts vs new colts? I don't know the colts ride has lasted longer then I thought it would already I'm leary on this one, and the bengals D could be the end of the texans but the bengals and lewis have a history of one and done in the playoffs.

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#25
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:49:30 AM
like skins n pack, gl
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