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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: +++Wild Card Weekend Plays w/ Analysis+++
six5juice send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:56:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rhh7:

Green Bay and Baltimore win blowouts.  Lean to Houston to cover, Washington squeaks out win at home.



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#27
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:22:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by six5juice:

Aloha fellas!

I was able to finish the regular season at 50-21-1...

Lets cut to the chase!


(1) Texans -4 1/2 over Cincy
- Texans are 9-5-1 64.29% ATS
- Home field advantage.
- Texans are 7th in Total Yards, while Cincy is 22th.
- Texans are 7th in Scoring, while the Cincy is 12th.
- Cincy had a difficult time winning against the Ravens...more so since Joe Flacco wasn't even playing.
- Texans did lose convincingly to the Colts, but I feel the Texans are the better team in this match-up. Don't fool yourself, the Colts are a great team.


  


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#28
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:25:38 AM
I think Seattle -2.5 is a must bet. Unfortunately it is at -3 right now
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xflrejects
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#29
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:00:42 AM

Sorry 65 Juice, but I take tremendous exception to the comment:

"Don't fool yourself, the Colts are a great team".

You must be referring to a version of a few years ago with a different QB at the helm. No way could you possibly be talking about the team in 2012 that finished:

 

*(-30) in PF/PA category  ( TOTAL FRAUD)

* 25th in DVOA stats where the other 11 playoff bound teams are in the Top 15

*A QB who threw almost as many INT's as TD's

* they play in a cupcake division where you draw JAX/TEN 2X a year ea ( NOW LOOK AGAIN AT POINT # 1)

*WON 2 games alone on the merit of "CHUCKSTRONG" emotion

*had at least 4-5 4TH Q. comebacks because they coughed up those leads in the first place ( mostly against weak to middle of the pack teams)

No offence but I believe my points support that even to say they are a "GOOD" team would be a reach.

 

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#30
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:29:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

"Don't fool yourself, the Colts are a great team"

Are you stoned? Colts D sucks. They played an easy schedule and still barely beat most of the teams. They will get pounded in Balt on Sunday by a veteran team. 
yea, this dude has a losing record NO DOUBT, Colts are HOT right now and the RAVENS are NOT... Ravens offence is weak, their D, is banged up, My money is all over the colts on this one, Straight up to WIN and the +6.5... if the line hits 7, im gonna hit it HARD
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#31
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:31:58 AM
however i totally agree if he was talking about the Broncos, they played some weak teams, not to mention 6 free Wins from the AFC West, i predict a 1 round loss for the Broncos
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#32
Posted: 1/2/2013 12:11:59 PM

La Haterz,I totally disagree with you.

I have DEN going to the SB.

They played the toughest 1st H schedule in the league  ( .783) and they were very competitive despite losses to ATL, NE and HOU. But you may recall they turned the ball over early in all of those games and fought back in every one. Againt NE a 3rd Q, fumble deep in NE's end was the turning point of that game.

This is Manning's 1st year with these receivers and if you have noticed they are much improved and much more on same page. Even though they had the softest 2nd H schedule (.342) they have ran the table and blew out most with 11 straight wins!

After the very 1st game of the season a (31-19 home win over PIT) I predicted they would be a Top 5 defense by end of season and they reached that in Week 13 and have held but very few talk about their "D". They are the only team in the league with a TOP 5 "O" and "D".

I feel that they would beat all 3 if they played right now and ATL in their own venue would be the toughest game for DEN. DEN has NE's # over the years and Manning knows what to expect. The beauty is he gets HFV this year if they survive though  we know that could be wintry conditions-never his fave. But being on the Continental Divide the mildest of weather could also pervade on that date. He might get lucky.

I will run BAL's #'s and get back to you a bit later today.

Cheers...just my respectful .02

 

 

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#33
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:16:14 PM
if Denver player better teams than ill consiter they are for real, however they played a bunch of chumps and lost to the other playoff teams in the mix..... Denver wasnt shait the last few years except this one when they got peyton, i know the broncos since im a charger fan, and i dislike them very much... let me say it like this, if they lose in the 1 game, i wouldnt be surprized, esp if they play Cinn
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#34
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:01:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by xflrejects:

Sorry 65 Juice, but I take tremendous exception to the comment:

"Don't fool yourself, the Colts are a great team".

You must be referring to a version of a few years ago with a different QB at the helm. No way could you possibly be talking about the team in 2012 that finished:

 

*(-30) in PF/PA category  ( TOTAL FRAUD)

* 25th in DVOA stats where the other 11 playoff bound teams are in the Top 15

*A QB who threw almost as many INT's as TD's

* they play in a cupcake division where you draw JAX/TEN 2X a year ea ( NOW LOOK AGAIN AT POINT # 1)

*WON 2 games alone on the merit of "CHUCKSTRONG" emotion

*had at least 4-5 4TH Q. comebacks because they coughed up those leads in the first place ( mostly against weak to middle of the pack teams)

No offence but I believe my points support that even to say they are a "GOOD" team would be a reach.

 


Great points. Maybe I should have wrote "Good team" haha! To me, they are "good" because of their ability to win with....a rookie QB, the lost of their HC, bouncing back from a horrible 2011 seaspn, and their late comebacks.

However, as I stated, I still don't have a play on this game. Still a tough game to cap (for me).

I appreciate the thoughts and post bro.

BOL 
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#35
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:03:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LaHaterz:

yea, this dude has a losing record NO DOUBT, Colts are HOT right now and the RAVENS are NOT... Ravens offence is weak, their D, is banged up, My money is all over the colts on this one, Straight up to WIN and the +6.5... if the line hits 7, im gonna hit it HARD

Appreciate the support bro!
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#36
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:11:32 PM
send me some li hing mui, and ill give you the winners this weekend
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#37
Posted: 1/2/2013 5:59:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LaHaterz:

send me some li hing mui, and ill give you the winners this weekend

Li hing mui for the win!
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#38
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:28:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by six5juice:

Aloha fellas!

I was able to finish the regular season at 50-21-1...

Lets cut to the chase!


(1) Texans -4 1/2 over Cincy
- Texans are 9-5-1 64.29% ATS
- Home field advantage.
- Texans are 7th in Total Yards, while Cincy is 22th.
- Texans are 7th in Scoring, while the Cincy is 12th.
- Cincy had a difficult time winning against the Ravens...more so since Joe Flacco wasn't even playing.
- Texans did lose convincingly to the Colts, but I feel the Texans are the better team in this match-up. Don't fool yourself, the Colts are a great team.

(2) Texans-Cincy game total Under 43.5
- Texans is 7th in defense (total yards), while Cincy is 6th.
- Texans is 10th in defense (pts allowed), while Cincy is 8th.

(3) Vikings +8 over Packers (small unit play)
- Very tough to cap this game. I'm trying to not allow my emotions to get in the way of this game. With the Vikings winning against the Packers, I feel that the Packers' coaching staff will have their team more prepared.
- The Packers are statistically better than the Vikes...One big edge the Vikes has is their run game. The Packers are 16th in rushing defense.

- Packers are playing at home.
- Will the line go up? Will public money pound the Packers?


(4) Seahawks -2 1/2 over Redskins
- Reskins are home, but they sure kept it a little close with the Cowgirls. Yes, they were able to execute on crucial plays to put the game away, but I feel their defense did give up some unnecessary points late in the game.
- The 'hawks did struggle against the Rams, but they were able to come back and get the "W".

-
'Hawks are 11-4-0 73.33% ATS.
- Redskins are third from the last in defense (total yards), while the Seahawks are one of the top 5 defenses in the league.
- However, the Redskins are in the middle of the league in defense (pts allowed), while the Seahawks give up the least amount of points (ranked first). What does this mean? Simple...The Redskins give up A LOT of yards, but they do not allow as much points (their defense seems to step up in crucial moments).







I seriously doubt you went 50 and 21 with all the flawed logic and thought process that you display in this article. Stats mean darn ALL at kickoff. All that matters is how are the 2 teams playing RIGHT NOW? How is their red zone offense and red zone defense scoring percentages their last 3 games. How well are the starting QB's playing? Turnovers, special teams, etc......total yards for the year? ahahaha, means nothing.

My RSI numbers speak for themselves. I finished the NFL league contest at 106th out of more than 18,000 so I ain't just whistling dixie. 
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#39
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:04:49 PM
i have simple system for all you doubters in this skins vs seahwks game


review every friggin rookie qb 1st time in playoffs

lets start with Rivers 1st full year 06  made playoffs lost at home as a favorite to Patriots in 1st playoff game

Flacco made playoffs every year rookie season went to finals @ Steelrs +6 points got thrashed 23-14

Ryan of Falcons 08 rookie year started all games made playoffs @ Arizona - 1 point Cardinals won 30-24

Daulton of Bengals last year made playoffs +4 @ texans got crushed 31-10

Romo as veteran 1st time in Playoffs WC round @ Seatlle as a 2 pt dog covered  21-20 losing the game

Tebow w/ denv last year div round at Patriots as a 14 pt dog

wooooieeeeeeeeeeeee  got creamed 45-10

Stafford of lions a veteran 1st time in playoffs @ saints +10 1/2  points wam bam ty maam lost 45-28

Rodgers veteran 1st time in playoffs 2009  @ Cardinals favored - 2 1/2  pts lost 51-45

Texans yates relived injured starters last year div round away @ Ravens +7 1/2 points lost 20-13

Matt cassel Vet 2nd year Made Playoffs 1st time 2010 with KC home +3 points vs Ravens got squashed 30-7

Eli manning made playoffs 2nd year played all 16 games in 05 home - 2 1/2  pts to Panthers ate a big friggin bagel 30-0



Sanchez of Jets 2009 made playoffs @ indy  in finals + 8 points got croaked 30-17


Mc Naab of eagles 1st time in Playoffs in 2000 @ NYG div round taking 4 1/2 pts Goy buried 20-10

Big Ben of steelers never lost a game rookie year 2004 +3  vs Patriots lost 24-17

Rook QB's 1st time in playoffs =




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#40
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:05:25 PM

I like the Seahawks aswell.

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#41
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:09:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by toddwins:


I seriously doubt you went 50 and 21 with all the flawed logic and thought process that you display in this article. Stats mean darn ALL at kickoff. All that matters is how are the 2 teams playing RIGHT NOW? How is their red zone offense and red zone defense scoring percentages their last 3 games. How well are the starting QB's playing? Turnovers, special teams, etc......total yards for the year? ahahaha, means nothing.

My RSI numbers speak for themselves. I finished the NFL league contest at 106th out of more than 18,000 so I ain't just whistling dixie. 

Okay. Whatever floats your boat haha. Not here to convince you of my record. I post on Covers because I enjoy reading/discussing and I enjoy "playing sports". Never once said I was a "pro" and never once said my picks were guaranteed. 

If i win, great. If I lose, no big deal. I've tried to stick to only NFL, but been fortunate by hitting some college bowl games recently.

Believe what you want. Bet how you want. If you have a different opinion than me, than so be it. 

Keep trolling bro... 
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#42
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:11:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonyroman:

i have simple system for all you doubters in this skins vs seahwks game


review every friggin rookie qb 1st time in playoffs

lets start with Rivers 1st full year 06  made playoffs lost at home as a favorite to Patriots in 1st playoff game

Flacco made playoffs every year rookie season went to finals @ Steelrs +6 points got thrashed 23-14

Ryan of Falcons 08 rookie year started all games made playoffs @ Arizona - 1 point Cardinals won 30-24

Daulton of Bengals last year made playoffs +4 @ texans got crushed 31-10

Romo as veteran 1st time in Playoffs WC round @ Seatlle as a 2 pt dog covered  21-20 losing the game

Tebow w/ denv last year div round at Patriots as a 14 pt dog

wooooieeeeeeeeeeeee  got creamed 45-10

Stafford of lions a veteran 1st time in playoffs @ saints +10 1/2  points wam bam ty maam lost 45-28

Rodgers veteran 1st time in playoffs 2009  @ Cardinals favored - 2 1/2  pts lost 51-45

Texans yates relived injured starters last year div round away @ Ravens +7 1/2 points lost 20-13

Matt cassel Vet 2nd year Made Playoffs 1st time 2010 with KC home +3 points vs Ravens got squashed 30-7

Eli manning made playoffs 2nd year played all 16 games in 05 home - 2 1/2  pts to Panthers ate a big friggin bagel 30-0



Sanchez of Jets 2009 made playoffs @ indy  in finals + 8 points got croaked 30-17


Mc Naab of eagles 1st time in Playoffs in 2000 @ NYG div round taking 4 1/2 pts Goy buried 20-10

Big Ben of steelers never lost a game rookie year 2004 +3  vs Patriots lost 24-17

Rook QB's 1st time in playoffs =





Great post. Thank you for sharing.
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#43
Posted: 1/2/2013 7:16:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by xflrejects:

La Haterz,I totally disagree with you.

I have DEN going to the SB.

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#44
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:30:07 PM
(6) 3 Team, 10 pt Teaser:

Vikings +18, CIN-HOU Under 53, MIN-GB OVER 36.


----------

62-24-1
(covered on WISC). Lets hope I don't repeat last week last week--started strong on college plays only to barely go positive in NFL haha.


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#45
Posted: 1/3/2013 2:50:38 AM
Man-oh-man...

Nice write up. Unfortunately, I am not aligned with your post this week. I do, however, like the Seahawks bets (preemptively.) I can't comment on over-unders too much, I always find myself tearing my hair out.

Best of luck though!
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#46
Posted: 1/3/2013 4:04:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iBETnWIN:

Man-oh-man...

Nice write up. Unfortunately, I am not aligned with your post this week. I do, however, like the Seahawks bets (preemptively.) I can't comment on over-unders too much, I always find myself tearing my hair out.

Best of luck though!

Thanks bro! Either way, someone will be cashing it haha. If not me, I hope you are. BOL!
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#47
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:06:32 AM
BENGALS BABY + 4.5    
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#48
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:25:03 AM

Houston,Greenbay,Balti all cover this weekend

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#49
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:14:37 AM
I don't think the Vikes cover +18 
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#50
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:20:35 AM
I think the Seattle -3 line is pretty damn telling. Buying down to 2.5 is something I'm going to consider. 

I don't think I could talk myself into taking Vikings at anything less than +14. Christian Ponder is pretty brutal.

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