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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: trend that caught my eye for SEA VS SF this week
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#1
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:50:50 AM
i do a lot of looking at people threads, get information i need, write them down all the important information and important trends. one that caught my eye with this match up was.. teams coming off a consecutive blowout wins scored 40 points or more in at least one of those games are 0-9-2.  earlier this year when patriots faced miami after blowing out jets/indy by more than 30pts and scored 40+ points in both games, they did not covered the spread of 7.5+. 
definitely leaning towards to sf on this. just waiting to see if anyone has any other good info with this match up
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#2
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:21:49 AM
like the trend but i cant bet against SEA @ home 

especially with a playoff birth on the line
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#3
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:22:06 AM
berth*
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iBETnWIN
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#4
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:24:32 AM

"Since 1999, NFL teams are 3-16-1 ATS the week after winning consecutive games in which they scored 30 or more points in each while allowing 10 points or less in each (with no bye weeks involved). 

 

If the team off a pair of monster blowout wins allowed no more than 10 points combined in their two big wins, they went 1-10-1 ATS the following week. 

 

If the team off a pair of monster blowout wins scored 40 points or more in at least one of the two big wins, the following week they went 5-4 SU & 0-8-1 ATS."

                                                                   -MrBator

This quote was definitely before the Patriots doing it this year.

                                                     

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#5
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:27:24 AM
Just trends my friend. I would focus more on the matchups in this game. Both teams are playing at a high level this late in the season and i just cannot see SF get up for this game after the big win in NE
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#6
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:27:39 AM
I mispoke. Apologies. The Patriots don't fall into that MrBator quote. Their opponents mounted double digit scores. It'd be interesting to see the data on the blowouts where opponents scored >/=10.
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#7
Posted: 12/19/2012 2:08:39 AM
I think it's harder to bet against SF. Both QBs are beasts but I'd have to slightly side with the 49ers as of now. Five 8-6 teams fighting for the 2 wild card spots and SF would like nothing more than to knock Seattle out of playoff contention. 

Remember, Seattle owes a loss for the MNF robbery vs GB. I time might be this week..
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#8
Posted: 12/19/2012 3:04:33 AM
Not to mention Harbaugh owing a cover [to some] against the Seahawks in that decision to decline the safety in the 13-6 victory.
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#9
Posted: 12/19/2012 4:43:28 AM
One thing with those trends...how many of those teams were underdogs at home during that 3rd game??

After 2 blowout wins the public will have inflated the lines and lead to less covers. I understand the logic but this seems like a special case no?
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#10
Posted: 12/19/2012 5:04:51 AM
remember week 4 when san fran defeated the jets 34-0 then the following week destroyed buffalo 45-3. this system came into play the following week against the giants, but people refused to fade san fran against the giants in week 6 because it was a revenge game from last years playoffs. well, the niners got destroyed 26-3. 
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#11
Posted: 12/19/2012 6:50:33 AM

Trends aside.........I feel the Niners are the better team. It will be crazy loud in Seattle..........all the Christmas Cheers silenced. SF bank!

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#12
Posted: 12/19/2012 8:42:26 AM
I look at trends too, everyone should. but look deeper than just the numbers on the surface. Who was the next opponent? Last opponent? Where did they play? Key players out? What was the spread? Chances are they were laying points against whomever. Earnmoney, when the Pats' failed to cover after their consecutive blowouts, they had to go to Division rival Miami and many places had them at -7 by game time, which is what they won by. No surprise there whatsoever. Last week, one of the premier trends in football for a few years now has been the visiting team/underdog in the KC/OAK series. Game 1 OAK does their part winning @ KC but strangely for only the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings, the Raiders actually won and covered @ home. Lastly, there are no points here, a pick' em game, as well it should be. This is a S/U call all the way, the kind of game that should end on up a teaser for those players. Could be  a winner both ways, but after last weeks blowout Sunday, who the hell really knows. I lean with the 'Hawks who IMO have the best homefield advantage in the league. Strongly consider the under, 39, as these teams may have shot their wad with all the points lately and these very good defenses in the end will determine the fate of this game. Don't see it getting out of the 30's, if that. Good luck to you!
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#13
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:24:51 AM
on it the under too....read "i win you lose's" thread....
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#14
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:54:50 AM
Seattle 6-0 ATS against the spread at home is far more telling than random trends that go back years and have nothing to do with the teams actually involved in the game.

New England looked great against Houston a week and a half ago and they blew their wad.  They were awful against the Niners.  San Francisco blew theirs in the big win last Sunday and will find it tough to win in SEA. 
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#15
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:48:08 PM
Niners + Under  

Want to see how bad Smiths injury is .... and if he will play if he Plays ill go BIG on this play if not then Small  (KEY INJURY)
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#16
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:48:19 PM
that stat is wonderful and all... but it doesn't take this into consideration:


SF is not going into Seattle and winning, the week after an emotional cross-country win against the Patriots... Seahawks will be way more pumped for this game than the 49ers...


throw that trend out the window!  it will do you no good here...
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#17
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:49:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

Seattle 6-0 ATS against the spread at home is far more telling than random trends that go back years and have nothing to do with the teams actually involved in the game.

New England looked great against Houston a week and a half ago and they blew their wad.  They were awful against the Niners.  San Francisco blew theirs in the big win last Sunday and will find it tough to win in SEA. 








if anybody wants good information from this thread, THAT is the post they need to read...


Seattle wins this!
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#18
Posted: 12/19/2012 2:23:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

Seattle 6-0 ATS against the spread at home is far more telling than random trends that go back years and have nothing to do with the teams actually involved in the game.

New England looked great against Houston a week and a half ago and they blew their wad.  They were awful against the Niners.  San Francisco blew theirs in the big win last Sunday and will find it tough to win in SEA. 

 Much more relevant trend
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#19
Posted: 12/19/2012 6:03:51 PM
harbough owns Carroll in both the NFL and college.
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#20
Posted: 12/19/2012 8:42:18 PM
Anyone taking in account that Seattle will be without browner and possibly Sherman (appeal to be heard Friday)?

Without those qbs and with kap at qb sf will be able to put more points on the board and im not afraid of that seattle offense that put 6 points up against them earlier in the season.

One thing you need on the road is good defense and a run game which sf has. Sf is fighting for first round bye they won't take this game lightly.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:04:58 PM
seattle being 6-0 at home this season but.. did everyone forget that patriots are 21-0 in december in foxborough????? whether that's ATS or not, 21-0 guys and they lost. emotional win, definitely. against TOM BRADY, yes. wilson is great and all but sf defense seems no joke either. im definitely staying the hell away from this game unless there are some other angle pointing towards to sf
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#22
Posted: 12/20/2012 2:26:53 AM
Yup bet all your money on the 49ers. Do it i dare you
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#23
Posted: 12/21/2012 11:10:06 PM
Maybe the others dare you not to!  
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#24
Posted: 12/22/2012 1:52:54 AM
this game will come down to ck...i have a feeling this game may proove to be a little much for him...especially being in seattle. i like the kid so i hope he does well, but weattle d going to make it extremley tough. 
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#25
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:10:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

that stat is wonderful and all... but it doesn't take this into consideration:


SF is not going into Seattle and winning, the week after an emotional cross-country win against the Patriots... Seahawks will be way more pumped for this game than the 49ers...


throw that trend out the window!  it will do you no good here...

I disagree with this. SF still need to win all the games to have a 1st round bye. If they lose this and GB win their 2 remaining games, GB will earn a # 2 seed ( assume that the Falcons get #1 ).
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