| Author: |
[NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 16 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (35-18-2 Sides YTD, 66.0%) |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI   View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#1 Posted: 12/17/2012 11:00:03 PM Overall Record: 42-23-2 (64.6%, +27.35 units) Sides: 35-18-2 (66.0%, +25.25 units) Totals: 7-5 (58.3%, +2.5 units)
I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence. The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.
Week 16 Card 2** Seattle PK (-105) Chicago -5 Cleveland +14 (-120) Philadelphia +4.5
That's it for now. Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night. |
|
quote |
|
MoneyHugger |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 404
Location: |
#2 Posted: 12/18/2012 2:55:31 AM 
|
|
quote |
|
RDTTKA12 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 192
Location: |
#3 Posted: 12/18/2012 3:24:54 AM
|
|
quote |
|
tuco |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 30
Location: |
#4 Posted: 12/18/2012 3:47:56 AM
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
|
|
quote |
|
bobafett |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage | |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 1886
Location: United States |
#5 Posted: 12/18/2012 9:09:57 AM  |
|
quote |
|
|
|
Metallica2467 |
RSI  |
MVP
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 19753
Location: California |
#6 Posted: 12/18/2012 10:38:17 AM
|
|
quote |
|
Neurofit |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1736
Location: United States |
#7 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:29:58 AM
gl this week  |
|
quote |
|
satchmo27 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 467
Location: New York |
#8 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:31:18 AM
|
|
quote |
|
InVegas |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 765
Location: |
#9 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:46:58 AM Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best |
|
quote |
|
alecboyh |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 3254
Location: Mexico |
#10 Posted: 12/18/2012 6:28:51 PM |
|
quote |
|
Zephyr_10 |
RSI |
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 566
Location: Ontario |
#11 Posted: 12/18/2012 6:39:27 PM |
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#12 Posted: 12/18/2012 10:58:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tuco:
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that. However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have. Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.
As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays. I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such). This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.
Good luck this week. Projections will be up in a minute. |
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#13 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:04:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas: Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week. |
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#14 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:05:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett: i saw a prop bet that said.....sea WILL NOT GO UNDEFEATED AT HOME.... -400 they would not go undefeated at home.!!!!!!
When did you see it? I'd bet on that right now. Not extremely confident in it, but definitely enough to bet it. |
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#15 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:07:25 PM
Week 16 Projections
ATL| 20 | @ | DET | 16 | TEN| 16 | @ | GB | 19 | OAK| 24 | @ | CAR | 27 | BUF| 13 | @ | MIA | 22 | CIN| 17 | @ | PIT | 17 | NE| 30 | @ | JAC | 12 | IND| 21 | @ | KC | 19 | NO| 22 | @ | DAL | 20 | WAS| 26 | @ | PHI | 25 | STL| 22 | @ | TB | 16 | NYG| 19 | @ | BAL | 25 | MIN| 12 | @ | HOU | 24 | CLE| 16 | @ | DEN | 26 | CHI| 18 | @ | ARI | 8 | SF| 15 | @ | SEA | 29 | SD| 12 | @ | NYJ | 10 |
|
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#16 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:08:52 PM
Week 16 Projections
ATL
| 20 |
@ |
DET |
16 |
| TEN |
16 |
@ |
GB |
19 |
| OAK |
24 |
@ |
CAR |
27 |
| BUF |
13 |
@ |
MIA |
22 |
| CIN |
17 |
@ |
PIT |
17 |
| NE |
30 |
@ |
JAC |
12 |
| IND |
21 |
@ |
KC |
19 |
| NO |
22 |
@ |
DAL |
20 |
| WAS |
26 |
@ |
PHI |
25 |
| STL |
22 |
@ |
TB |
16 |
| NYG |
19 |
@ |
BAL |
25 |
| MIN |
12 |
@ |
HOU |
24 |
| CLE |
16 |
@ |
DEN |
26 |
| CHI |
18 |
@ |
ARI |
8 |
| SF |
15 |
@ |
SEA |
29 |
| SD |
12 |
@ |
NYJ |
10 |
|
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#17 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:09:55 PM Week 16 Rankings:
| OVERALL |
| 1 |
Seattle |
| 2 |
New England |
| 3 |
San Francisco |
| 4 |
Green Bay |
| 5 |
New Orleans |
| 6 |
Oakland |
| 7 |
Carolina |
| 8 |
Tennessee |
| 9 |
St. Louis |
| 10 |
Miami |
| 11 |
Denver |
| 12 |
Washington |
| 13 |
Atlanta |
| 14 |
Houston |
| 15 |
Dallas |
| 16 |
Philadelphia |
| 17 |
Baltimore |
| 18 |
Chicago |
| 19 |
Pittsburgh |
| 20 |
Cinicnnati |
| 21 |
Buffalo |
| 22 |
New York Jets |
| 23 |
Cleveland |
| 24 |
Detroit |
| 25 |
Arizona |
| 26 |
Tampa Bay |
| 27 |
San Diego |
| 28 |
New York Giants |
| 29 |
Minnesota |
| 30 |
Kansas City |
| 31 |
Indianapolis |
| 32 |
Jacksonville |
|
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#18 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:10:37 PM
| OFFENSE |
| 1 |
Seattle |
| 2 |
Washington |
| 3 |
Carolina |
| 4 |
Oakland |
| 5 |
Dallas |
| 6 |
Chicago |
| 7 |
New England |
| 8 |
Green Bay |
| 9 |
New Orleans |
| 10 |
New York Giants |
| 11 |
San Francisco |
| 12 |
Atlanta |
| 13 |
Pittsburgh |
| 14 |
Denver |
| 15 |
Baltimore |
| 16 |
Houston |
| 17 |
Cleveland |
| 18 |
Philadelphia |
| 19 |
St. Louis |
| 20 |
Minnesota |
| 21 |
Miami |
| 22 |
Detroit |
| 23 |
Buffalo |
| 24 |
Tennessee |
| 25 |
Tampa Bay |
| 26 |
Indianapolis |
| 27 |
Kansas City |
| 28 |
San Diego |
| 29 |
Jacksonville |
| 30 |
Cinicnnati |
| 31 |
New York Jets |
| 32 |
Arizona |
|
|
quote |
|
NFL_Sharp |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 169
Location: |
#19 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:12:04 PM
| DEFENSE |
| 1 |
Tennessee |
| 2 |
Cinicnnati |
| 3 |
New York Jets |
| 4 |
Miami |
| 5 |
Arizona |
| 6 |
St. Louis |
| 7 |
San Francisco |
| 8 |
New England |
| 9 |
New Orleans |
| 10 |
Houston |
| 11 |
Philadelphia |
| 12 |
Green Bay |
| 13 |
Denver |
| 14 |
Seattle |
| 15 |
Buffalo |
| 16 |
San Diego |
| 17 |
Baltimore |
| 18 |
Oakland |
| 19 |
Atlanta |
| 20 |
Tampa Bay |
| 21 |
Carolina |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh |
| 23 |
Detroit |
| 24 |
Cleveland |
| 25 |
Chicago |
| 26 |
Dallas |
| 27 |
Kansas City |
| 28 |
Minnesota |
| 29 |
Washington |
| 30 |
Indianapolis |
| 31 |
Jacksonville |
| 32 |
New York Giants |
|
|
quote |
|
Ralphlay |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 75
Location: |
#20 Posted: 12/18/2012 11:18:11 PM |
|
quote |
|
tuco |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 30
Location: |
#21 Posted: 12/19/2012 10:28:45 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Ralphlay:
Sometimes numbers lie.....like naming Tenn as the #1 defense in the NFL???
it's been covered about 1000 times before, but.. one is born every day, i suppose..
this is not your regular power rankings, it's a snapshot of efficiency stats for the last 3 weeks.
|
|
quote |
|
InVegas |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 765
Location: |
#22 Posted: 12/19/2012 12:19:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Much appreciated. Thanks |
|
quote |
|
Teaser78 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 12884
Location: New Jersey |
#23 Posted: 12/19/2012 12:24:42 PM |
|
quote |
|
iBETnWIN |
RSI |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 594
Location: Nevada |
#24 Posted: 12/19/2012 12:50:55 PM
Bears
Eagles
Browns
Best of luck to you friend!
|
|
quote |
|
Jmt908 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2101
Location: Maryland |
#25 Posted: 12/19/2012 1:18:19 PM
|
|
quote |