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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 16 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (35-18-2 Sides YTD, 66.0%)
NFL_Sharp send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/17/2012 11:00:03 PM
Overall Record:  42-23-2  (64.6%, +27.35 units)
Sides:  35-18-2  (66.0%, +25.25 units)
Totals:  7-5  (58.3%, +2.5 units)

I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence.  The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.

Week 16 Card
2** Seattle PK (-105) 
Chicago -5 
Cleveland +14 (-120)
Philadelphia +4.5

That's it for now.  Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night.
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#2
Posted: 12/18/2012 2:55:31 AM
Thanks Sharp!  I really appreciate you doing this for us. 
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Posted: 12/18/2012 3:24:54 AM
Gettin them in early, I like it!!  Thanks for the info Sharp, looking forward to another good week.  BOL mate

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Posted: 12/18/2012 3:47:56 AM
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)

i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.

hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)

GL 2 all
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#5
Posted: 12/18/2012 9:09:57 AM
i saw a prop bet that said.....sea WILL NOT GO UNDEFEATED AT HOME.... -400 they would not go undefeated at home.!!!!!!
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Metallica2467
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#6
Posted: 12/18/2012 10:38:17 AM
Best of luck Sharp
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#7
Posted: 12/18/2012 11:29:58 AM
SEA might be getting more than +1 by game time after that SF win in NE...

gl this week
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#8
Posted: 12/18/2012 11:31:18 AM
i like these picks sharpie
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:46:58 AM

Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.

Looking forward to some totals if you have them?

Best

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#10
Posted: 12/18/2012 6:28:51 PM
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#11
Posted: 12/18/2012 6:39:27 PM
Keep it going Sharp 
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Posted: 12/18/2012 10:58:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tuco:

i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)

i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.

hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)

GL 2 all

I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that.  However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have.  Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.

As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays.  I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such).  This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.

Good luck this week.  Projections will be up in a minute.
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:04:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.

Looking forward to some totals if you have them?

Best


Not a single total this week.  A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays.  Good luck this week.
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:05:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

i saw a prop bet that said.....sea WILL NOT GO UNDEFEATED AT HOME.... -400 they would not go undefeated at home.!!!!!!

When did you see it?  I'd bet on that right now.  Not extremely confident in it, but definitely enough to bet it.
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#15
Posted: 12/18/2012 11:07:25 PM
Thanks to everyone else for all the luck.  Best of luck to you all this week.  

Week 16 Projections
ATLTENOAKBUFCINNEINDNOWASSTLNYGMINCLECHISFSD
20@DET16
16@GB19
24@CAR27
13@MIA22
17@PIT17
30@JAC12
21@KC19
22@DAL20
26@PHI25
22@TB16
19@BAL25
12@HOU24
16@DEN26
18@ARI8
15@SEA29
12@NYJ10
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#16
Posted: 12/18/2012 11:08:52 PM
Sorry.

Week 16 Projections
ATL
20 @ DET 16
TEN 16 @ GB 19
OAK 24 @ CAR 27
BUF 13 @ MIA 22
CIN 17 @ PIT 17
NE 30 @ JAC 12
IND 21 @ KC 19
NO 22 @ DAL 20
WAS 26 @ PHI 25
STL 22 @ TB 16
NYG 19 @ BAL 25
MIN 12 @ HOU 24
CLE 16 @ DEN 26
CHI 18 @ ARI 8
SF 15 @ SEA 29
SD 12 @ NYJ 10
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#17
Posted: 12/18/2012 11:09:55 PM
Week 16 Rankings:

OVERALL
1 Seattle
2 New England
3 San Francisco
4 Green Bay
5 New Orleans
6 Oakland
7 Carolina
8 Tennessee
9 St. Louis
10 Miami
11 Denver
12 Washington
13 Atlanta
14 Houston
15 Dallas
16 Philadelphia
17 Baltimore
18 Chicago
19 Pittsburgh
20 Cinicnnati
21 Buffalo
22 New York Jets
23 Cleveland
24 Detroit
25 Arizona
26 Tampa Bay
27 San Diego
28 New York Giants
29 Minnesota
30 Kansas City
31 Indianapolis
32 Jacksonville
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:10:37 PM
OFFENSE
1 Seattle
2 Washington
3 Carolina
4 Oakland
5 Dallas
6 Chicago
7 New England
8 Green Bay
9 New Orleans
10 New York Giants
11 San Francisco
12 Atlanta
13 Pittsburgh
14 Denver
15 Baltimore
16 Houston
17 Cleveland
18 Philadelphia
19 St. Louis
20 Minnesota
21 Miami
22 Detroit
23 Buffalo
24 Tennessee
25 Tampa Bay
26 Indianapolis
27 Kansas City
28 San Diego
29 Jacksonville
30 Cinicnnati
31 New York Jets
32 Arizona
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:12:04 PM
DEFENSE
1 Tennessee
2 Cinicnnati
3 New York Jets
4 Miami
5 Arizona
6 St. Louis
7 San Francisco
8 New England
9 New Orleans
10 Houston
11 Philadelphia
12 Green Bay
13 Denver
14 Seattle
15 Buffalo
16 San Diego
17 Baltimore
18 Oakland
19 Atlanta
20 Tampa Bay
21 Carolina
22 Pittsburgh
23 Detroit
24 Cleveland
25 Chicago
26 Dallas
27 Kansas City
28 Minnesota
29 Washington
30 Indianapolis
31 Jacksonville
32 New York Giants
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Posted: 12/18/2012 11:18:11 PM
Sometimes numbers lie.....like naming Tenn as the #1 defense in the NFL???
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#21
Posted: 12/19/2012 10:28:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ralphlay:

Sometimes numbers lie.....like naming Tenn as the #1 defense in the NFL???


it's been covered about 1000 times before, but.. one is born every day, i suppose..

this is not your regular power rankings, it's a snapshot of efficiency stats for the last 3 weeks.
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#22
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:19:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:


Not a single total this week.  A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays.  Good luck this week.

Much appreciated. Thanks

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#23
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:24:42 PM
gl 
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iBETnWIN
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#24
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:50:55 PM
Thanks for sharing. Always a pleasure...

Bears
Eagles
Browns

Best of luck to you friend!

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Jmt908
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#25
Posted: 12/19/2012 1:18:19 PM
I think the Eagles are a good play this week - Possibly Andy Reids final home game, McCoy back, playing spoiler, skin's oline has injury issues for the first time this season.
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