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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Fox's **12/16 Picks and Analysis** NFL
Jfox6546 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Top Bet |
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#1
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:38:45 PM
NFL/NCAAF: +54,000 (+108u) 129-78-3 (63%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -2,670 (-5.34u) 54-54-5 (50%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD: 
 +1,530 (+3.06u) 15-10 (61%) ATS/Totals


1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Weeks  11/13-12/10 (November) :  +28,610  83-53 ATS (61%)  

Week 12/11-12/17:  -1,600  3-4 ATS

Week totals will be updated once the next few days games are finished. I'm posting my plays early so that everyone can get the best available lines. As always your insight and opinion is welcomed. BOL!  


$2000 Buffalo Bills +6 **Max Bet**
This game is being played in Canada for those who don't know this. But it's still a "home" game for the Bills. As we all know the Seahawks aren't the best road team and have played in close games in every one of their road games this year. I even had a max bet on this Seattle team when they were underdogs at the Bears a few weeks ago. That was with the Seahawks being underdogs tho. This line is 9 points away from the Seahawks last road game, as they are now 6 points favs. Being 6 point favs is difficult for any team on the road, and the Bills have proven to be decent at "home" this year. The Bills have played good football for the last month or so as well. The Seahawks are 0-3 SUATS as road favorites this year and this line is inflated due to the blowout win the Hawks had over the cardinals this past week. 

The Bills biggest improvement since the beginning of the year as been their run defense. This is critical because the Seahawks are going to try and pound Marshawn Lynch as much as possible. In the last 6 weeks the Bills have held their opponents to A little over 3 yards per carry. That can keep you in most games. They've also held their opponents to 250 yards or less passing in the last 8 games, against teams like the Texans, Patriots, and the Colts. Their defense will keep them within the 6 in this game. 

Looking offensively at the Bills I think it actually helped this team with Fred Jackson getting hurt. CJ Spiller is a much more dynamic back, and is more of a threat in the passing game as well. The Seahawks run defense has should vulnerability at time this year, especially on the road. I look for Spiller to have another breakout performance here with Jackson being out for the year. 

This game will be a defensive battle IMO and very similar to the Bills game against the Rams last week. The Bills should have won that one but couldn't get a stop in the end. Turnovers and red zone efficiency will also help decide the winner as points will be at a premium.  I think this game will play out very similar to last weeks game for the Bills. And if the Bills can get a stop late in the game, they will knock the Hawks to 2-6 on the road this year. Now both teams have some injuries and questionable players for the game, but the Seahawks are thin at the Cb position , and browner is suspended. For this reason I think the Bills can have enough success in the passing game to get the upset. Bills win 20-16. 


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#2
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:38:59 PM
$2000 New York Giants +1.5 **Max Bet**
If you havnt learned your lesson over the past few years with this Giants team, now is your chance. Road game in December is what they do best. The Falcons are the Texans of the NFC, and won't be able to keep up with the Giants in this game, just as the Patriots dominated the Texans. The Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 and looked horrid in a blow out loss to the Panthers last week. Matt Ryan Has been average the last month as well, mostly because the Falcons have been unable to run the ball effectively. In the Falcons last 5 games they have only rushed for more than 80 yards one time. This puts a lot of pressure Ryan and he hasnt been consistent enough. If the Falcons remain one dimensional against the Giants, Matt Ryan isnt going to see a lot of time with the Giants pass rush coming at him full speed. Atlantas defense is also struggling as of late, especially generating turnovers. Besides the Saints game the falcons only had 1 turnover in their other previous 6 games. 

Atlanta is very similar to the Texans in the sense that they have played a pretty easy overall schedule. They have only played 3 teams with a record over .500 and their hardest opponent was Denver, but they were lucky and got Peyton in week 2 before he started playing at a high level. The Falcons failed to cover as home favorites against the Raiders, Panthers, and Cardinals. They could've easily lost all three of those games as well. Now I'll give the Falcons credit for getting those W, because a win is a win, but the competition will be much tougher today. The Giants know how to win these games, and the Falcons havnt proven they can. The Falcons won't be able to overcome another early defect at home against Eli Manning. Giants win 31-23

$1000 Broncos -3 
The Broncos are one of the hottest team in the NFL and the Ravens are reeling after losing 2 straight. As we all know the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator this week in favor of Caldwell, who had never called plays at this level. The Broncos defense has also been playing at a very high level. The Ravens will look to get back to running the ball this week. IMO they won't have much success going against a Broncos team who's had extra rest and time to prepare for the Ravens. Plus the Broncos defense Has only let up more than 100 yards on the ground one time in the last 2 months. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS as road favs as well this year, so it's not like they can't play well in this one. The Ravens have a lot of question marks again on the defense and will have trouble stopping Manning. After not being efficient in the Red zone last week, Manning is sure to fix those problems here. IMO, this game comes down to Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco. The answer is clear in my mind. Broncos win 27-20. 


$1000 San Diego Chargers -3 
This one is prolly as surprising for you as the Jets last week, but I love this spot. I know I know it's the Chargers but they get a mediocre 4-9 Panthers team at home as only 3 point favs. The Panthers played their Super Bowl last week and got the W against Carolina. But let's not forget the panthers got dominated in their last road game against the worst team in the league, the Chiefs. The Panthers were 5 point road favs in that game and lost by 6. Teams traveling all the way across the country have a hard time historically as well. I don't see the Panthers getting up for this game. The Chargers are off one of their best wins of the year. I think they will want to come back home and end the season strong these last few weeks. I'll gladly lay just the fg with them at home. 

The Chargers have the run defense to be able to stop Cam Newton and company. The Chargers are only allowing 92 yards per game on the ground this year. Now the Chargers have been struggling with their running game this year but they should have a favorable match up this week, as Carolina has let up over 150 yards on the ground in their last 3 road games and almost 5 yards per carry. Look for the Chargers to end the season strong. Chargers win 30-20
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#3
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:47:49 PM

Thank you Jfox for the early writes-up. 

BOL

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#4
Posted: 12/14/2012 7:01:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fearthis:

Thank you Jfox for the early writes-up. 

BOL


No problem man 
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#5
Posted: 12/14/2012 8:38:22 PM
Giants
Broncos and chargers
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#6
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:19:53 PM
JFox Love that Giants call im surprised your not on any same season second game Divisional revenge Dogs they are 10-1  over the last two weeks SU and ATS.Also injuries did not seem to even matter in some of these match ups the stats are still the same. what is your take on these Div Revenge games.

Tampa +3.5
Chicago +3
KC +3
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#7
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:26:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FB1:

JFox Love that Giants call im surprised your not on any same season second game Divisional revenge Dogs they are 10-1  over the last two weeks SU and ATS.Also injuries did not seem to even matter in some of these match ups the stats are still the same. what is your take on these Div Revenge games.

Tampa +3.5
Chicago +3
KC +3

Not willing to back either the saints or Bucs, both secondaries are horrible, both qb playing poorly over last couple weeks. took Bucs with the points in my pick em pool 

KC and Oakland are both horrible. I wouldn't touch KC. For me that game is Raiders or no play, and it's a no play cause I'm not putting my money on the Raiders. Took raiders in my pick em pool.

Chicago and Green bay is an interesting game. Some key players returning for the packers, but they prolly won't have as much of an impact after missing significant time. I was leaning Bears, but decided against it because the bears have struggles defensively the last month. Should be a very good game. I'll be pulling for bears for my pick em pool.
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#8
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:28:54 PM
Bol to you fox. Appreciate how you take your time to write out your picks. Also, are these all your picks for this week? Or will you post them later. 
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#9
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:30:56 PM
Big Bills fan here Fox. I agree w/ you that Freddy J going down will HELP the Bills because Spiller is a game-breaking type RB. However, dont be fooled in to making this in to a "home-road"  analysis for either team. Nobody cares in the stands who wins, it's dead silent in that stadium, and the Bills players annually gripe about how it's not a home-field advantage. As much as Seattle isnt a great home team, they have an excellent defense and will ABUSE Ryan Fitzpatrick if they choose to send the house at him. Bills D is def. improving, but not enough to beat a team whose defense can score. I'm looking more at a Seattle 24-13 type W. Just my two sense...It's a no play for me as a Bills fan. Great job this year with your plays!
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#10
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:33:42 PM
Two cents, not sense ; )
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#11
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:42:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kwon_g:

Bol to you fox. Appreciate how you take your time to write out your picks. Also, are these all your picks for this week? Or will you post them later. 

If I have more, I'll post them, will prolly have play on the Sunday night game too. Bol! 
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#12
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:49:21 PM
Good info
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#13
Posted: 12/14/2012 10:04:24 PM
Nice analysis. Have the same feeling about "home" game for Buffalo. I think the crowd will be rooting for Seattle. Good luck.
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#14
Posted: 12/14/2012 10:43:29 PM
Nice picks Fox! But the don't you think the Panthers will give Rivers and the Chargers a hard time? I think last week the steelers just had too many turn overs. Carolina is playing well and we all know Norv is gone...What is their motivation to play this game? If they win it'll be a fg but I think Newton been playing well and might give SD trouble through the air and ground. And I just can't trust that SD o-line or that D-line it's wishy washy. One thing though about this game is that Carolina had an emotional game last week against the falcons. If u can get the hook at 3.5 might want to get the middle. GL to your plays.
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#15
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:32:04 AM
y isnt Denver a MAX BET??
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#16
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:51:59 AM
Fox, I like all the picks.  BOL
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#17
Posted: 12/15/2012 2:11:41 AM

Beware the Seahawks!

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#18
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:13:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jfox6546:


If I have more, I'll post them, will prolly have play on the Sunday night game too. Bol! 

Thats what Im talking about!! The sunday night play!!.  Those are patriots colors by the way.  lol!!

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#19
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:19:41 AM
GL fox...nice season bud!   very articulate write-ups.. You're an asset to covers.
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#20
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:19:50 AM
Great break down of games, of course.  Wow that giants bet is juicy,  was looking at it and then read your right up that brings up so many good points to make it look stellar.  Watchout for my Seahawks!  Pete Carrol has them going,  they are sneaky good,  cant argue with anything you say in your write up by any means but i might need to stay away cause of my emotional attachment to my team lol. But i can understand the max bet here.  I havent lost a single max bet when tailing you so im sure ill have to bite the bullet and go for the money..  Great work bro!!
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#21
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:22:47 AM
Like them all but Giants. Giants usually have a let down after blow out win
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#22
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:21:37 PM
Thx everyone. Bol
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#23
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:28:02 PM
 what a great lookin card ! thank you as always!!!   dk
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#24
Posted: 12/15/2012 2:05:30 PM
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#25
Posted: 12/15/2012 3:04:25 PM
BOL JFox , you must be in a lot of pick'em pools lol. Hope you win all of them
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