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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 15 Picks, Rankings, and Projections (32-14-2 Sides YTD, 69.6%)
NFL_Sharp send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/11/2012 10:19:39 PM
Overall Record:  38-19-2 (67.7%, +24.75 units)
Sides:  32-14-2 (69.6%, +24.55 units)
Totals:  6-5 (54.5%, +0.5 units)

Sides should rise to the 70-80% range, and Totals should rise as well (not quite as sure of the range), at a significantly high confidence level.


Week 15 Final Card:
2** Miami -7
2** Carolina +3 (-115)
Detroit -6
Pittsburgh -1.5
San Francisco +5.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Chicago +3
2** Jacksonville/Miami Under 37.5

*Disclaimer:  the only one that isn't a true system play is Chicago.  It would be at +3.5 but doesn't quite make the cut at +3.  However, it's so close to being a play, that I'm playing it as if it were.  Tampa Bay would not be a play at less than 3.5, And Detroit and Miami wouldn't be plays above 7.

Good luck to everyone this week.
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Posted: 12/11/2012 10:20:15 PM
Week 15 Score Projections
CIN 22  @ PHI 17
GB 16  @ CHI 25
NYG 23  @ ATL 21
TB 22  @ NO 20
MIN  12  @ STL 24
WAS 27  @ CLE 22
JAC 8  @ MIA 29
DEN 19  @ BAL 23
IND 10  @ HOU 26
CAR 23  @ SD 25
SEA 24  @ BUF 21
DET 21  @ ARI 10
PIT 21  @ DAL 21
KC 20  @ OAK 27
SF 21  @ NE 27
NYJ 13  @ TEN 21
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Posted: 12/11/2012 10:20:26 PM
Week 15 Rankings
1 Chicago
2 San Francisco
3 Miami
4 St. Louis
5 Cincinnati
6 New York Giants
7 New England
8 Pittsburgh
9 Detroit
10 Houston
11 Seattle
12 Buffalo
13 Washington
14 Atlanta
15 Cleveland
16 Baltimore
17 Carolina
18 Green Bay
19 Oakland
20 Denver
21 San Diego
22 Tennessee
23 New York Jets
24 New Orleans
25 Dallas
26 Philadelphia
27 Kansas City
28 Tampa Bay
29 Minnesota
30 Arizona
31 Indianapolis
32 Jacksonville

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Preze
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#4
Posted: 12/11/2012 10:53:37 PM
Any thoughts on the Thursday night game?

GL this weekend with your plays 
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iBETnWIN
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#5
Posted: 12/11/2012 11:00:40 PM
You, sir, are a BAD man...
Loving TB +3.5 and the 49ers +5.5.

Keep up the good work, you're slaying them!

BL
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:01:54 PM
Agree with almost all your picks, looks just like my card, other than the Detroit game (which I don't like)

I also like ATL and HOU to cover at home.
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:05:28 PM
Why would you take SF +5.5 if you expect New England to win by 6?
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:07:23 PM

Sharp, thanks for posting.

Question: How are your totals determined as plays? Seems like the total on the Jags/Phins game is cutting it close...

Thoughts?

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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:19:19 PM
gl
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:21:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Preze:

Any thoughts on the Thursday night game?

GL this weekend with your plays 

Slight lean on Philly, as they should be able to run the ball without much problem.  This should keep the score lower and the turnovers down.  Could go either way though, I think the number at 4 is dead on.  Good luck this week.
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:28:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Why would you take SF +5.5 if you expect New England to win by 6?

My plays are made based on the stats that generate these projections, not the projections themselves.  I don't bet simply based on these projections, they are just interesting and helpful tools in my opinion.  As I said last week, sometimes the game flow will lead to anomalous outcomes, as the projections are based on averages across the underlying stats.  Most of the time, game flow will be near enough to the projected values that the projections will be fairly accurate.  Sometimes, it won't.  Adding up across the stat projections will prove inaccurate in these occurrences.  The underlying stats are better predictors of this, and that's why they're used by the system instead of the projections.
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BJaRz
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:29:36 PM
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:29:58 PM
Thanks IBet, timmer, and neuro.  Good luck to you guys this week. 
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:35:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

Sharp, thanks for posting.

Question: How are your totals determined as plays? Seems like the total on the Jags/Phins game is cutting it close...

Thoughts?


Totals, like side plays, are based on the underlying projected stats.  The difference is that over/unders must be a point or more off of the total to be a play.  For sides, I don't have this rule.  I expect the Jags to have a very difficult time moving the ball in this one.  The only thing worrying me here is turnovers for the Jags on strip sacks.  
**I said projections had to be a point better than totals to be plays - the actual score projection for the Jags/Dolphins game is 7.74 to 28.68
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Posted: 12/11/2012 11:55:39 PM
good stuff
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Posted: 12/12/2012 2:22:04 AM
NOTHING BUT MAD RESPECT FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK ON PUTTING THESE PLAYS TOGETHER BUT I COULDN'T BET AGAINST THE PATS AT HOME IN DECEMBER FOR ANY REASON,GL FELLA WITH YOUR PLAYS!!!!!
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#17
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:42:09 AM
Bears who dropped 4 of 5 are first in your rankings?  LOL
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Posted: 12/12/2012 7:51:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stevedore:

Bears who dropped 4 of 5 are first in your rankings?  LOL


perhaps these rankings show the strength of play (ATS) for this particular week, not the rankings in their usual sense.

in this case, i agree, the bears will beat packers this week, SU.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 8:57:43 AM
With you on Steelers sharpie
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Posted: 12/12/2012 1:24:51 PM
imma give myself credit for bein "sharp"....im on all ya plays cept TB and the jets total....(not that i dont agree...they just dont standout to me some of the others).....
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rosterjunkies
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Posted: 12/12/2012 8:32:58 PM
Hey sharp. Could you please post your rankings for the O and D based on the last 3 weeks please. Thanks man and keep up the great capping
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Posted: 12/12/2012 10:09:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stevedore:

Bears who dropped 4 of 5 are first in your rankings?  LOL

These are rolling 3 week, SOS adjusted efficiency rankings - not power rankings.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 10:15:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rosterjunkies:

Hey sharp. Could you please post your rankings for the O and D based on the last 3 weeks please. Thanks man and keep up the great capping

OFFENSE


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Posted: 12/12/2012 10:16:39 PM
Sorry.

Offense
1
Seattle
2 New York Giants
3 Washington
4 New England
5 Carolina
6 Chicago
7 Oakland
8 Detroit
9 San Francisco
10 St. Louis
11 Dallas
12 Miami
13 Atlanta
14 Philadelphia
15 Green Bay
16 New Orleans
17 Houston
18 Baltimore
19 Tampa Bay
20 Kansas City
21 Minnesota
22 Pittsburgh
23 Cleveland
24 Denver
25 Cinicnnati
26 Buffalo
27 San Diego
28 Tennessee
29 New York Jets
30 Indianapolis
31 Arizona
32 Jacksonville
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Posted: 12/12/2012 10:17:33 PM
Defense
1
Cinicnnati
2 Buffalo
3 Pittsburgh
4 San Francisco
5 Miami
6 St. Louis
7 San Diego
8 Houston
9 New York Jets
10 Tennessee
11 Chicago
12 Cleveland
13 Detroit
14 Baltimore
15 Denver
16 Arizona
17 Atlanta
18 New England
19 Indianapolis
20 Jacksonville
21 Green Bay
22 New York Giants
23 Minnesota
24 New Orleans
25 Kansas City
26 Tampa Bay
27 Philadelphia
28 Dallas
29 Oakland
30 Washington
31 Seattle
32 Carolina
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