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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Fox's **12/9 Picks and Analysis**
Jfox6546 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Top Bet |
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#1
Posted: 12/7/2012 8:43:04 PM
NFL/NCAAF: +51,700 (+103.4u) 126-76-2 (62%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -1,990 (-3.99u) 48-49-5 (49%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD: 
 +2,080 (+4.13u) 15-9 (64%) ATS/Totals

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Week 11/13-11/19:  +13,090   30-16-1 ATS 

Week 11/20-11/26:  +2,550   25-20-2 ATS

Week 11/27-12/3 +8,970   18-11-1 ATS 

Week 12/4-12/10:   +1400   4-1 ATS
Pending 12/7, 12/8 Plays


Posting early this week so that you guys can get more favorable lines before they move once more action hits the books Saturday and Sunday. 11-3 run in the NFL, won last 7 NFL picks. Let's stay hot! 


$2000 Jets -2.5 **Max Bet**
Ok so before your eye balls pop out of your head, and you wonder why the heck I'm putting a max bet on the Jets, look at who they are playing, a team that is actually far worse off, of course I'm talking about the Jags. I like to stress match-ups and this game comes down to a couple of them. 

First the Jets running game vs. the Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are 17th in the league in yards per attempt against and 31st in the league in rushing yards against per game. They are also 30th in rushing TD against. I'm stressing this because the Jets will be running the ball even more in this game since Sanchez has been struggling in recent weeks. And since the Jags will likely not be able to stop the Jets run game consistently, Sanchez will be able to have ample time and use play action. The Jags are also 27th in passing yards against and 22nd in passing yar per attempt. Sanchez won't have to do a whole lot to move the ball down the field against the Jags. The Jags are also dead last in the NFL in sacks with only 13 all year. So Sanchez will have plenty of time to operate and find open receivers. 

The Jags offense keeps adding injuries on a weekly basis. As we know Jones Drew is out, As well as #2 RB Jennings (Doubtful), #3 RB Parmelee out and on IR, and #4 RB Jones is questionable. Needless to say the running back core of the Jags is depleted, and without a running game, they will struggle mightily. Jags are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game.  The Jets are actually playing decent defense this year, it's the turnovers and special teams mistakes that are really killing them. But they get to play against a team that is as bad or worse in those categories.

 The Jags also have a multitude of other injuries , which includes their arguably biggest threat at Wr in Cecil Shorts (quest, concussion) . The Jets are top 5 in the league in terms of passing yards per attempt and total passing yards per game against, and that's after playing the Patriots and Tom Brady twice. Since the Jags won't be ale to run the ball, Chad Henne will have it very difficult to find time and open Wr, and as I said if Shorts doesn't play he really doesn't have any playmakers on the offense. Jags are 30th in the league in sacks allowed as well. Basically this Jags team is very bad, and I think they get blown out here. Their season has been over, and with all the injuries, these players have all but packed it in. Jets win 30-10. 


$1000 Buffalo Bills -3
The Rams are coming off a division game against one of the most physical teams in the NFL. They got a big W and it was their second straight week of hard fought Divisonal games. Now they have to go on the road and play a Bills team who is off a pretty easy victory against the Jags. Earlier in the year when the Rams played the 49ers, they came out very sluggish and got dominated at home against the Jets. The Jets and Bills are pretty even in my book betting wise, but this time the Rams have to travel. I don't see them being able to hang with the Bills in this spot. Bills should be able to establish their running game in this one. Bills defense has finally looked good the last month and shouldn't give up too many yards/points at vs. the 25th ranked offense in the Rams at home. As long as the Bills don't turn it over excessively (3+ time), they will win this game IMO. Bills win 27-17


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#2
Posted: 12/7/2012 8:43:22 PM
$500 Detroit Lions +7
This is too many points to give in this Divisonal matchup. Before I start the weather for this game is an 80% chance of snow and 2-4 inches of the white stuff forecasted.  It will also be fairly windy, and pretty cold. This will make for tough passing conditions and the better running team will have an advantage. Therefore I actually give the lions a slight edge offensively in this game. The Lions have been competive for last 6-7 weeks and have been in position to win almost all of then, but they always find a way to lose late. With the 7 points im comfortable they will stay within that against an injured Packer team, who hasn't been very good in the last month or so. But this Packer team is the opposite of the Lions. They find ways to win games late, but this should be close and within a TD in the end. Packers cant run the ball consistently enough, and have a hard time protecting Rodgers in passing situations. This will keep the Lions close, and as long as they don't turn it over too frequently and give the Packers short fields to work with, will stay within a TD. And don't be surprised in the Lions pull out a W here as well. May I also add that the Packers FG kicker has been struggling as of late, and with these weather conditions that should continue. I expect that to take at least 3 off the board for the Packers as well. If i wasnt playing the side in this game i would be playing the UNDER as well. So if you dont feel comforrtable with the Lions, lock the under in asap, as it will continue to drop as the public sees the forecast in the coming days. Packers win 20-17

$500
 Vikings +3.5
The line is at 3 right now, but I think it goes to 3.5 before game time at some point, as the public is still siding with the Bears around 65-70% of the time. If it doesn't get to 3.5 I would buy the hook at -130 or less. The Bears lost their leader last week. He calls the shots on defense and gets the Bears into their sets and audibles. It will be hard to find a replacement as skilled as Urlacher. Minnesota should have learned their lesson from last week, and just pound Peterson until the opponent stops him. That way Ponder doesn't throw the game away by throwing Int every time the Vikings are driving. The Vikings should have success running the ball here. The Bears have let up more than 100 yds on the ground for 6 straight weeks now. The Vikings are also 5-1 SU at home this year and 4-1-1 ATS. The injuries to the Bears are starting to mount up and the have lost 3/4. The bears are also 2-4 ATS against teams with a record at .500 or above this year, and for the most part have only beaten teams that are simply not very good. In fact the Bears have not beaten a team above .500 this year. And if they lose this one, will make them 0-5 against teams above .500 since the Vikings will then be 7-6. The Bears IMO are not as good as the public perceives them to be, and now they have to go on the road in the division against a Vikings team in a must win scenario to keep playoffs hopes alive. I have the Bears dropping another one here. Vikings win 24-23
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#3
Posted: 12/7/2012 8:47:23 PM
May add another play or two later, I'm leaning Skins and Chiefs right now. Keep posted 
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#4
Posted: 12/7/2012 9:17:45 PM
jets = for once. solid plays fox
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#5
Posted: 12/7/2012 9:54:41 PM
i love the JETS play. jax doesnt stop run and ryan will ground and pound. jaz offense looks like a MASH unit. shorts and robinson are both questionable with concussions, and we know how they protect players today with concussions, so i doubt they play. all they have is a journeyman running back to carry the ball. parmalee and MJD are out and rashad jennings is doubtful. jax is a mess.

mr fox, i was all over the skins mon night and i absolutely love RG3's skills and ability, BUT i dont know if i like him as much laying pts, even a short number at home, and baltimore needs a win in the worst sort of way.
good luck to ya with whatever you decide to do.
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#6
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:17:33 PM
Shorts has been ruled out by the way 
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#7
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:36:52 PM
jets all day!!
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#8
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:42:17 PM
Nice Card   GL
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#9
Posted: 12/7/2012 11:15:22 PM
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#10
Posted: 12/7/2012 11:17:42 PM
Great write-up fox, thanks.
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#11
Posted: 12/7/2012 11:18:24 PM
Fox are u playing navy and army tomorrow?
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#12
Posted: 12/8/2012 12:19:24 AM
With you, Lets do this!!
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#13
Posted: 12/8/2012 12:42:25 AM
No ncaaf. 4 2 morro
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#14
Posted: 12/8/2012 12:48:27 AM

Disagree on Buffalo/Rams - I see a very low scoring game. The Bills D is getting better, agree there. But the Bills offense is all gimmick. Jeff Fisher - after they played the 49ers (and tied) were a bit deflated b/c they felt like they won that game (but ended up tying)...

Fast forward to last week - the Rams get the emotional payoff, which goes into the mental bank account ... which leads to a more confident team. More confidence = more energy. More energy = shut down Bills gimmick "screen" offense. The Bills cannot beat anyone straight-up, except for Stevie Johnson. BUT... SJ has a gimpy hamstring this week.

Rams + 3 in a low scoring game.

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#15
Posted: 12/8/2012 1:11:04 AM
leaning more toward the rams but other than that i like em. nice card
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#16
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:16:02 AM
gl
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#17
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:20:52 AM
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#18
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:33:26 AM
gl fox
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#19
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:24:18 AM
Thx everyone, I'm not playing the army/navy game. BOL!
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#20
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:53:04 AM
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#21
Posted: 12/8/2012 9:38:06 AM
im going unit for unit.   Great write ups once again!
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#22
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:35:47 AM
Like the Bills .......!
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#23
Posted: 12/8/2012 11:47:28 AM
Thx wes- you will make some $$

in Vegas - I just think after two tough divisional games the will physically unable to match the Bills intensity at home. We can agree to disagree. Gl bro
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#24
Posted: 12/8/2012 12:33:36 PM
Great analysis fox !! Baltimore defence mirror image of bears they both have problems w mobile QBs . Keep that gravy train rollin  im all in   dk
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#25
Posted: 12/8/2012 1:29:53 PM
say fox any thoughts on SD/PITT  PITT qb was immobile bfore latest injury offensive line still in disarray SD doesnt look like a team that has quit 7-- In what could be a low scoring gme seems tempting   dk
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