I would make the same bet again

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: I would make the same bet again
topshow PM topshow
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Posted: 12/7/2012 5:55:31 AM
Denver were better in every facet of the game completely outplayed Oakland and yet covered the spread by 3 pts !!!! I bet the raiders + 10.5 and lost but would do the same thing tomorrow because betting dd road favs (especially divisional) is a -ev proposition long time.
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goscots56 PM goscots56
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:01:34 AM
You playing blackjack or betting sports!  Blackjack you better take the odds and double that 10 every time, but this isn't blackjack my friend.

Each game is unique, Denver was the play.  They actually left 14-20 points on the field and off the board.  Oakland was lucky to even be within 13.

If all you're gonna do is bet trends, then maybe you should move onto another game.
topshow PM topshow
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:13:18 AM
you keep betting dd road favs and you will soon find yourself down a lot of money. going into last night teams getting 8 points or more at home are 21-1 ats !!! bet against that trend and see where it gets you. but congratulate yourself on last nights win because you are obviously a punter who looks short term. i prefer to look at the record at the end of the year
Dippind15 PM Dippind15
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:29:16 AM

After watching last nights game Denver was by far the right choice and I'm certain anyone who took Denver last night would take that same game 10 out of 10 times.  I thought Oak would come out with some fire and take opportunities they normally wouldn't considering their current situation.  I was wrong and they looked like the same garbage team we have seen all year. Broncos should have put up a lot more points than they did and I think the Raiders were fortunate to keep this one as close as they did. I don't see how anyone can argue with trends, especially after watching the game, and still wanting Oak same game same spread. Glad I stayed away...butt screwed myself anyway by making a small play on the over. Ohh well 

goscots56 PM goscots56
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:43:34 AM
Damn, I didn't say I play DD road favs on a regular basis. I said I played Denver because they were the play.

The next time there is a DD home dog I am not going to blindly pull the trigger. Gonna break it down just like I do every other.

You go ahead and make your donkey play based on trends alone and see how long you last.

Just don't kid yourself into thinking you made the right play last night.
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topshow PM topshow
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:54:45 AM
if you look at my topics on my covers space you will see i play situations not trends but i sure like to have them on my side especially when they are very strong. as to how long i will last been doing it for 20 odd years and am still here. this years record going into week 14 was 26-17 (60.5%) +10.7 units i'll take that
LETGOPACK1234 PM LETGOPACK1234
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Posted: 12/7/2012 9:19:24 AM

Pretty stupid thread.....

Denver had 6 scoring drives, Oakland had 2....

Denver also turned it over on the 25 yd line....

Denver kicked 3 fgs from inside the 20

This game was 2 plays away from being a 24+ game......

Provide whatever stats you want, they dont apply to this game....

 

The_BigDog PM The_BigDog
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Posted: 12/7/2012 9:27:50 AM

I thought we covered this last thursday on the ATL NLO game.... In BOTH games the unpopular favs won. People used whatever trend numbers they wanted to make thair cases..... THEY BOTH LOST.... The losers even after game is over and they lost their wagers claim: I WAS ON THE RIGHT SIDE....

CMON MAN  

Parlayking73 PM Parlayking73
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Posted: 12/7/2012 9:40:07 AM
What a dumb thread. We're you watching the same game we were? You bet Oakland for gods sake. Your theory needs to be reevaluated when your putting money on Oakland. Go make that same bet again and again you lose every time.
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topshow PM topshow
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Posted: 12/7/2012 9:46:51 AM
a parlay bettor giving out sage advice gotta love covers lol so just to clarify if i bet oakland 10 times in that same spot i lose 10 times lol again only on covers. bet you said the same a couple of weeks ago when i bet kc at home vs denver. no way will kc ever cover against denver. no sure you didnt deary me
Ferguson_Funk PM Ferguson_Funk
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Posted: 12/7/2012 10:02:19 AM
No one seems to mention the free 7points raiders gave boncos wth the fumble on the 2 yrd line or the interception thrown in boncos territority  thats 10 points mnimum right there  not to mention all the penaltys on the raiders that kept broncos drives alive 
topshow PM topshow
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Posted: 12/7/2012 10:12:50 AM
at last someone sees the overall picture as i said in the opening post despite all the awful play from oakland (they couldnt have been much worse) and the total domination from denver im a field goal away from collecting. on this occasion it didnt work out but with the same situation coming into the game if they played tomorrow i would play oakland again. just my 2 cents no more comment from me
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 12/7/2012 10:46:55 AM
i'll take DD dogs any day of the week even if that dog is led by a blind armless/legless QB.
tankstevens PM tankstevens
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Posted: 12/7/2012 10:47:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by goscots56:

Damn, I didn't say I play DD road favs on a regular basis. I said I played Denver because they were the play.

The next time there is a DD home dog I am not going to blindly pull the trigger. Gonna break it down just like I do every other.

You go ahead and make your donkey play based on trends alone and see how long you last.

Just don't kid yourself into thinking you made the right play last night.

you're trying to talk sense to someone who has no sense, cease immediately
LETGOPACK1234 PM LETGOPACK1234
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Posted: 12/7/2012 10:57:02 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Ferguson_Funk:

No one seems to mention the free 7points raiders gave boncos wth the fumble on the 2 yrd line or the interception thrown in boncos territority  thats 10 points mnimum right there  not to mention all the penaltys on the raiders that kept broncos drives alive 

 

This happens EVERY WEEK with Oakland

They lead the league in flags

They are one of the worst turnover teams in the league

That is nothing new to this team....

But, the Broncos with 4 fg inside the 20 and an int on 1st down from the 25  That does not happen often with team....

What Oakland did last night is normal, Denver left atleast 14 points off the board they usually get on a conistant basis

Pretty sure Oakland has like the 30th ranked redzone d....and they held Denver to 1-6 TDS inside the 20

Im going out on a limb and saying that wouldnt happen again

LETGOPACK1234 PM LETGOPACK1234
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Posted: 12/7/2012 11:04:01 AM
Going into the game last night, Oakland ranked 25th in the NFL in redzone defense.....and stop Denver on 5 of 6 redzone drives
Splooge PM Splooge
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Posted: 12/7/2012 11:10:32 AM
you can't just look at it in a vacuum and say never play DD road favs.....thinking like this will lose you $ in long run 
LV3 PM LV3
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Posted: 12/7/2012 11:16:41 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by topshow:

you keep betting dd road favs and you will soon find yourself down a lot of money. going into last night teams getting 8 points or more at home are 21-1 ats !!! bet against that trend and see where it gets you. but congratulate yourself on last nights win because you are obviously a punter who looks short term. i prefer to look at the record at the end of the year

 

Well said

mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 12/7/2012 1:44:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Ferguson_Funk:

No one seems to mention the free 7points raiders gave boncos wth the fumble on the 2 yrd line or the interception thrown in boncos territority  thats 10 points mnimum right there  not to mention all the penaltys on the raiders that kept broncos drives alive 

Um thats called defense and a bad oakland offense that some of us knew of before the game.  Wow and this guy topshow agrees with you and is bashing others who have sense.  Only on covers....

shrimp1958 PM shrimp1958
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Posted: 12/7/2012 1:56:59 PM
I wouldn't bet them in an intrasquad scrimmage....
ddjf PM ddjf
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Posted: 12/7/2012 4:57:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

I wouldn't bet them in an intrasquad scrimmage....
Dippind15 PM Dippind15
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Posted: 12/7/2012 6:24:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

Going into the game last night, Oakland ranked 25th in the NFL in redzone defense.....and stop Denver on 5 of 6 redzone drives

Tragic watching those field goals last night when u have a play on the over. This is a stupid thread. Unless something major was to happen to this Denver team, this end result will remain the same. More times than not, Denver would end the game with more points than they did last night.

Oak + McFadds  Denver (-) McGahee and still same result

 

theclaw PM theclaw
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:17:59 PM

Palmer actually had a higher QB Passer rating than Manning, 101 - 98.

And QB Passer rating has the highest correlation to winning the game then any stat, about 80%.

Palmer also passed for a higher ave per play then Manning, by about 1 yd per pass att. About 75% correlation to winning the game, I'm very surprised Raiders could not cover a big number when out-playing Broncos in these areas.

estes1717 PM estes1717
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Posted: 12/7/2012 7:46:51 PM
F that Piece of Garbage Palmer. 
Parlayking73 PM Parlayking73
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Posted: 12/7/2012 11:08:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by topshow:

a parlay bettor giving out sage advice gotta love covers lol so just to clarify if i bet oakland 10 times in that same spot i lose 10 times lol again only on covers. bet you said the same a couple of weeks ago when i bet kc at home vs denver. no way will kc ever cover against denver. no sure you didnt deary me

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