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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Best Play of the Month
Magic_Steam send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:05:18 PM

LC,

Always appreciate your perspective..Like most of your plays.. I'm having trouble with the Saints v Giants matchup.. I got the Giants winning by 3-7pts, so the +5 is def enticing.. But, will probably be a No play for me.

I think that the Eagles play lost its value when it moved off of +9.. I know that this isn't completely relevant, but at this point in the season, would you play the Eagles at home +1.5? I do understand your logic behind TB being a bit overvalued, but just a lil perplexed at the unit size for this one. Getting over a TD or not, its difficult to trust a team in such disarray (especially defensively).

Good luck this weekend! Keep up the good work

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#52
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:00:52 PM
all 6 picks are the same as wunders Is that where you got them?
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#53
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:15:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ddc1982:


I am leaning towards colts -4.5.  I actually think they look at this game as a must win in order for them to secure their playoff birth.  We are talking about a colts team that went 2-14 the year before and is now on the verge of locking up a playoff spot.  The Colts are 1 game up on the steelers and bengals.  Losing this game could put them in a tough spot.  By winning this game, they secure their chances at a playoff berth as well as making the match up vs the Texans more meaningful as they then have a slight chance at winning the AFC South division title (they will still need the texans to lose to the vikings in week 16).  

From a statistical stand point, yes the colts have terrible defense but Titans offense is terrible as well.  They scored 2 Tds their last 2 games.  1 Td vs the Texans(who had a banged up secondary.  Texans also gave up 37 Pts to the Jags and 31 pts to the lions the prior 2 weeks) and score 1 TD vs the Jaguars.  A game in which Jake Locker went 23/40 261 Yards 1 Td and 2 picks.  This is verse a Jaguars team which ranks in the bottom 5 in pass defense.  In divisional play the titans have been surrendering 26 ppgs while averaging 14 PPg.  The colts have been surrendering 15ppg while averaging 21PPg.  Keep in mind the titans have played 1 more divisional game and have played the texans twice already. 

I think the colts win this game by a TD or more. 

What ever side your on BOL.  


Good points, atleast you have reasons to your side. I respectfully disagree but GL
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#54
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:16:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonyrome:

Well LC you know what I think if you read my Saints +5??? post, haha.
Hope I lose this one or better yet Giants win by 1-4 (I bought Saints at 5 on Monday).



Saw it buddy, agree with you on all points
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#55
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:18:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

other side NYG.....they just lost a divisional game in primetime....its not impossible for drew brees to have 3 shitty games (its the nfl)....


I'd rather put my money on a Drew Brees getting 5 after an embarassing showing than a Giants team as a home favorite
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#56
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:20:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Magic_Steam:

LC,

Always appreciate your perspective..Like most of your plays.. I'm having trouble with the Saints v Giants matchup.. I got the Giants winning by 3-7pts, so the +5 is def enticing.. But, will probably be a No play for me.

I think that the Eagles play lost its value when it moved off of +9.. I know that this isn't completely relevant, but at this point in the season, would you play the Eagles at home +1.5? I do understand your logic behind TB being a bit overvalued, but just a lil perplexed at the unit size for this one. Getting over a TD or not, its difficult to trust a team in such disarray (especially defensively).

Good luck this weekend! Keep up the good work



8 and 9 aren't key numbers, +7.5 is nearly the same as +9. Regardless of the number, the Eagles is a solid play here. These two teams aren't much apart from each other. Yes the eagles aren't playing that good but TB is overvalued thanks to there 4 game winning streak a few weeks ago. No matter how you look at it, TB is still #32 in pass defense, dead last.
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#57
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:20:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

all 6 picks are the same as wunders Is that where you got them?


who?
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#58
Posted: 12/8/2012 3:30:23 PM
LC, with you on the Saints and Mia.Phily I am not touching, Sily is showing them as 14 point dogs. Being a colt fan I watch all of their games and Luck wants to win every game he plays and the team is good enough to be planning ahead for houston and still beat  the Titans so I got to take the Colts.  Bol
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#59
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:14:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



8 and 9 aren't key numbers, +7.5 is nearly the same as +9. Regardless of the number, the Eagles is a solid play here. These two teams aren't much apart from each other. Yes the eagles aren't playing that good but TB is overvalued thanks to there 4 game winning streak a few weeks ago. No matter how you look at it, TB is still #32 in pass defense, dead last.

I hear ya bud.. But IMO every single point is valuable, especially when playing on the Eagles.. The difference between +7.5 and +9 was huge if you played either Minnesota or Tampa Bay as dogs last week.

Good point concerning TB's defensive passing rank. but I believe those stats are a little misleading. TB has had the 4th most passing attempts against them (nearly 100 more attempts against than PHI). Eagles secondary is far worse.. I go to nearly every home game and it's baffles me how they look lost and confused almost every play (pre-snap). Coaching is atrocious.. I believe the key stat in this game is giveaway/takeaway margin; TB +11 (tied for 2nd), PHI -18 (dead last).

Just so you know, im not trying to bash your play or anything... I just hate to see people put money on this team, and get let down.

I'll be routing for you! GL

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#60
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:15:17 PM
BOL LC
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#61
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:25:17 PM
^^ Im sorry.. My stats were wrong regarding giveaway/takeaway... that was NFC.. KC is dead last (-21), PHI (31st).. TB (tied for 5th overall< not 2nd)
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dontbookme
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#62
Posted: 12/8/2012 4:28:43 PM
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#63
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:41:02 PM

all 6 picks are the same as wunders Is that where you got them?

who?}}

a tout by the name of wunder dog ...has all your plays with nice writeups  and outside an under or 2 exact same on sides ....just a coincidence I guess

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#64
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:31:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

all 6 picks are the same as wunders Is that where you got them?

who?}}

a tout by the name of wunder dog ...has all your plays with nice writeups  and outside an under or 2 exact same on sides ....just a coincidence I guess



Never heard of him
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#65
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:32:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Magic_Steam:

I hear ya bud.. But IMO every single point is valuable, especially when playing on the Eagles.. The difference between +7.5 and +9 was huge if you played either Minnesota or Tampa Bay as dogs last week.

Good point concerning TB's defensive passing rank. but I believe those stats are a little misleading. TB has had the 4th most passing attempts against them (nearly 100 more attempts against than PHI). Eagles secondary is far worse.. I go to nearly every home game and it's baffles me how they look lost and confused almost every play (pre-snap). Coaching is atrocious.. I believe the key stat in this game is giveaway/takeaway margin; TB +11 (tied for 2nd), PHI -18 (dead last).

Just so you know, im not trying to bash your play or anything... I just hate to see people put money on this team, and get let down.

I'll be routing for you! GL



I hear ya mate, some valid points. Just feel like the Eagles are a good bet today. We'll see how it goes
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#66
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:34:30 PM
Final Add

Panthers +10.5 / Saints +11.5    3 units


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#67
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:41:58 PM
Good Luck
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phatmac
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#68
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:53:49 PM
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#69
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:20:26 PM
Sweep for the morning games!

Nick Foles with 350+ yards and 0 int
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#70
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:30:10 PM
Proove me right Brees, les go!
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einyx
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#71
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:33:09 PM
Great start, fumble by Colston
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#72
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:39:02 PM
Great job Bro!
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#73
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:40:59 PM
great stuff lc

any thoughts on nets under and okc - ?
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#74
Posted: 12/9/2012 4:48:37 PM
Lets make that 2 fumbles... Stupid saint players cant even hold the Darn Ball. Lets gooo saints....
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#75
Posted: 12/9/2012 5:14:11 PM
Looking good so far, I hope you sweep the board.
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