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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Week 14
BigBadBruin send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BigBadBruin
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#1
Posted: 12/6/2012 10:33:48 AM
53-37-2

Denver -9.5 -120
Ov 48 -115

Tease den -3.5 / ov 42

One of these Thursday night has to go over the total
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#2
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:11:38 AM
54-39-2

Patriots - 3 x3bet

Cowboys +3.5 -115




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#3
Posted: 12/7/2012 11:36:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigBadBruin:

54-39-2

Patriots - 3 x3bet

Cowboys +3.5 -115





Care to share your take on those two plays? Thx! 
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#4
Posted: 12/7/2012 11:57:45 AM
GL BBB
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#5
Posted: 12/7/2012 12:58:45 PM
I like the Patriots in this game for number of reasons besides the fact that I am a huge fan.

1.   The Houston running game vs. Patriots D.  A lot of houston backers will cite the running game as being able to have its way vs. Pats.  Granted, this will be the best O-line that the Pats face this year.  Pats backers will cite pats have been good against the run.  So even though pats have been good against the run, they haven't faced a running team like the Texans - best in the league.  The Patriots should be able to stop run or at least the Texans run game won't be the reason why Houston wins this game, if they in fact win, because the Patriots are going to force HOU to throw to win. 

Additionally, Patriots give up around 100 yds a game.  Towards the top and only give up 3.9 / per attempt.  Take out the Buffalo game where they got gashed by Fred Jackson/Spiller and You have a top 5 run D.  Spiller/Jackson/Buffalo always score vs. Pats.

Finally, HOU line banged up and haven't been as affective recently due to injuries to RT, T, Guards, NT, Tight ends and others.

2.  Patriots weakness this year (disregarding the let down game vs. Arizona) is that they come out to  leads in the 1H and they hang on for dear life in the 2half mostly in the 4th Q.  This happened vs. Baltimore most notably.  Even though Pats probably won that game.  The D play calling changes to prevent D and the Offensive play calling becomes too conservative with an emphasis on running the ball and eating clock.  The Buffalo game was the last instance of this.  Since the Buffalo game and the acquisition of Talib, The patriots have changed up their philosophies on both sides of the ball.  On offense they have kept their foot on the gas pedal and put an emphasis on finishing the game and on Defense they have started to mix more blitzes in. 

What this all boils down to is that they are going to put the game in Schuab's hands.  He hasn't been asked to do this all year.  The times that he has had to throw to keep HOU in the game have resulted in close games (Detroit, Jacksonville).  Schuab has the ability to throw as we have seen in the past; however, he is a little like Romo when forced to throw.  A gunslinger but does make mistakes. Prior to HOU changing offensive philosophy from focus on run to focus on pass he through 27 picks between 2009-2010.  In 2011 they switched to run first and he limited his picks because he was just being asked to manage the game.  This year 1/3 of his interceptions have come in the games that he has had to throw (Jax / Det).  Patriots have been either best or 2nd best in league with takeaways. 

3.  Patriots vs. HOU secondary.  Hou secondary has gotten lit up past few weeks.  Injuries to front 7 have slowed pass rush and injuries to Joseph and Ball wil/havel hurt secondary.  LBs are banged up which limits depth and vs. uptempo patriots style will cause problems.

4.  Patriots are at home and need the game more.  Texans, even if they lose still have the top spot in the AFC due to having more wins.  If Texans beat the Pats they can still beat the Ravens and win the AFC.
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#6
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:14:18 PM
Pretty decent and in depth write-up, thanks!  

i do like Pats to cover in MNF, they were doing well in Monday games. They do have much to play for in this game, 1st round bye in AFC playoffs and home cooking.   
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#7
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:16:41 PM
Dallas:

1.  Demarco Murray gives Dallas a running game and takes some pressure off Romo.  This should slow down Cincy's new found pass rush.

2.  Miles Austin being healthy makes Dallas passing game more dynamic as it opens up the underneath routes and screens for dez and witten.

3.  Dallas coming in after positive game and looking to keep momentum moving forward.  Dallas kept playoff hopes alive with win last week and this is another must win game for playoff hopes.

4.Cowboys seem to play better on road ats.  4-2 ats on road 0-6 ats at home.

5.  Bengals caught NYG week before bye but what additional signature win do they have?  KC, Oak, SD, Jax, Cleve?  @Washington in week two was a good win but it was week 2.

Ill take my chances with Dallas.
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#8
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:21:33 PM
Europa
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#9
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:25:02 PM
I don't have too many of angles to like or dislike either Dallas or Cincinnati but +3 pts might be value in such game. Good luck!   
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#10
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:29:43 PM
Pats-3 ***
Cowboys +3.5 -115
ATL -3 line just moved at my book
Tease boys +10.5 / Vikings +10

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#11
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:31:05 PM
3 team ov buff / ov ariz / ov buff
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#12
Posted: 12/8/2012 10:32:05 PM
*Ov buffalo / ov ariz / ov minn


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#13
Posted: 12/9/2012 9:59:35 AM
Jets -2 -130
SF -9.5 -125
Posted using a mobile device.
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#14
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:09:46 PM
Good Luck
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#15
Posted: 12/9/2012 12:14:14 PM
Best of Luck today...
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#16
Posted: 12/9/2012 8:23:01 PM
4-2 today

Pack -6
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#17
Posted: 12/10/2012 8:24:47 AM
59-42-2

5-2 yesterday 

Pats -3***

Lean over

34-24 pats
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#18
Posted: 12/10/2012 1:09:42 PM
Add:


Pats ov 51.5

Reverse Pats -3 / ov 51 3.2 units to win 4
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