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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 14
alecboyh
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#26
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:12:38 PM


with you on my Raiders, Chiefs, and Cowgirls ... I like RG3 versus an overrated Baltimore team ... GL dude!!!
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#27
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:14:12 PM
Agree on all your points about the Raiders, but curious to see how you answer this. Why did linesmakers open this spread at -10.5 considering everything you pointed out?
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thehuntman
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#28
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:18:28 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

They downright stink hunt and there is no way to put a shine on that. However they do have lots of young raw skill/talent on that team. They were playing some tough football earlier in the year like in the win over Pitt and what should have been a win over Atlanta but they gave up after some tough losses. That horrible late sideline pass for a pick 6 by Palmer in Atlanta when they had the game won really sucked the life out of him. What he is thinking with some of those atrocious and idiotic late game passes he makes I really have no clue. I personally think he's just a loser despite having raw talent. I hear you on the draft pick but that needs to change to. They make hideous draft selections. What they ever saw in Jamarcus Russel I will never know and now Rolondo McClain....The list goes on. Heyward Bey is another one that needs to change his attitude.

Heyward Bey was nothing more than a 3rd rounder as projected. I still have no friggin clue why they took him as high as they did. I also was reading they benched WR Moore half way through the Browns game due to lazy play so we will have to see where that goes. I like him and there is lots of potential with him.

I hear you with Palmer...The one that stands out to me was 1st and 10 at your own 38 down 35-32 to TB lots of momentum and over 2 minutes to play and he threw one of the worst balls I have even seen right to the Tampa defender. There wasn't a Raider receiver within 15 yards....Game over and with a win there your 4-5 with a fighting chance.

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alecboyh
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#29
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:20:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Agree on all your points about the Raiders, but curious to see how you answer this. Why did linesmakers open this spread at -10.5 considering everything you pointed out?


Easy, Raiders are playing garbage and are by far the worst team in the last month ... Broncos are rolling with Peyton Manning and the public knows it ... so the only line that makes sense to split money between the sides is the DD line (10 or more points) ... anything less than that is Bronco money ... for me the line is where its supossed to be ... oddsmakers have to attract people to Raiders side ...
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#30
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:22:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alecboyh:



Easy, Raiders are playing garbage and are by far the worst team in the last month ... Broncos are rolling with Peyton Manning and the public knows it ... so the only line that makes sense to split money between the sides is the DD line (10 or more points) ... anything less than that is Bronco money ... for me the line is where its supossed to be ... oddsmakers have to attract people to Raiders side ...


Very well, but I still think -10.5 is too much to open a line at for a road team on a short week and in division. I really like the Raiders here
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alecboyh
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#31
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:28:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Very well, but I still think -10.5 is too much to open a line at for a road team on a short week and in division. I really like the Raiders here


exactly ... and now Raiders have motivation to play for hos coach Denis Allen, whose father passed away ... remember the #ChuckStrong games the Colts have been playing?? ...
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thehuntman
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#32
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:30:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Very well, but I still think -10.5 is too much to open a line at for a road team on a short week and in division. I really like the Raiders here

Let me ask you a question...Would it surprise you if Manning throws 4 touchdown passes and Denver wins 34- 17?

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StoneColdNinja
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#33
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:30:28 PM
Revenge game at home on primetime, with Denver on the road on a short week.  I like oakland in this spot also 
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alecboyh
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#34
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:32:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thehuntman:

Let me ask you a question...Would it surprise you if Manning throws 4 touchdown passes and Denver wins 34- 17?



Not at all ... But SPOTWISE this is a good play on OAKLAND ... is it a 100% guaranteed play?? of course not, but it is a really good one ...
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thehuntman
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#35
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:35:26 PM

Weeden just threw for 364 yards against this pitiful defense. They can't get a stop for the life of them. I'm not saying Denver is the play but I saw these clowns play live in Cincy a couple of weeks ago and their defense is one of the worst ever.

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#36
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:53:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Terrelle Pryor and quite possibly Matt Leinhart will both be auditioning in this game. Pryor almost for certain and they will be taking his leash off as it's all about seeing about next year now which they fully admit so keep that in mind. This could easily be a 27-23 football game. McFadden was leading the NFL in receptions out of the back field when he got hurt so he adds to the passing game more than the running game and Goodson is a pure big play threat. Those two coming back also frees up Reece more as a slot receiver where he is very dangerous. I do not see this being played like that Chiefs game but hey it would not be the first time I have been wrong. GL with the Under

Good points. But doubtful Pryor will see action if they game is in doubt. They've got 3 more games after this game to get him going. As you said, Run DMC is back... I see Palmer starting and staying in there as long as the game is close. If you see Pryor, then you may have well kissed your cover with Oakland goodbye.

 

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FrankShades
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#37
Posted: 12/4/2012 2:06:26 PM
Everybody keeps saying McFadden will play but Rotowire has him as out. Which one is it? Does anybody have a credible source one way or the other here?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#38
Posted: 12/4/2012 2:18:34 PM
Tailing you on all of the plays. BOL 
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thehuntman
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#39
Posted: 12/4/2012 2:27:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FrankShades:

Everybody keeps saying McFadden will play but Rotowire has him as out. Which one is it? Does anybody have a credible source one way or the other here?

I'm seeing probable on numerous viable sites.....High ankle sprain on his already messed up foot.....I'm quite sure at the very least he will give it a go....

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#40
Posted: 12/4/2012 2:37:33 PM
I'd still rather do a 6.5 pt teaser with TB:

DEN -4
TB-.5

Hard to see how that doesn't happen.....
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#41
Posted: 12/4/2012 2:44:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alecboyh:



... and now Raiders have motivation to play for hos coach Denis Allen, whose father passed away ...  

interesting, I'm sure you guys remember last season when the Raiders went into Houston and beat the Texans after Al Davis passed away.
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stussy
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#42
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:08:40 PM
Oakland going to my big play this week

GL
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Polar_Bear
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#43
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:21:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Agree on all your points about the Raiders, but curious to see how you answer this. Why did linesmakers open this spread at -10.5 considering everything you pointed out?


 http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101494216

posts 4, 6, 7, 12, 19 in the above thread off of the first page alone and one of them is a Raider fan and a capper I respect very much, and maybe he is right. There is a lot of that thinking. I have a social club I frequent here that a large book works out of and out of the first 20 guys in there that I know of that already laid down on this game today, 16 of them took Denver and there reasoning was pretty much all the same. Because it's the Raiders and they suck! There will be more than enough of that simplistic thinking to get the majority of backing on Denver even at that number, at the very least even action and the linesmakers know this. The number for Denver in Kansas City hovered around this same number and that is a pretty good measuring stick for this game. Bettors have not backed off betting on the Broncos since then and they just covered the number against Tampa while the Raiders looked apathetic and downright disgusting against the Browns. I know I don't need to tell an intelligent gambler such as yourself that the average person/bettor goes on what they have most recently seen.

In a nutshell those points I made are just that, points I made. I do not think they are points the average person will see or even bother to look for.

But hey maybe we are the ones fooling ourselves here and the Broncos roll 35-10 and the simple thinking will turn out to be the correct thinking. Find out Thursday.
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Polar_Bear
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#44
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:26:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

Good points. But doubtful Pryor will see action if they game is in doubt. They've got 3 more games after this game to get him going. As you said, Run DMC is back... I see Palmer starting and staying in there as long as the game is close. If you see Pryor, then you may have well kissed your cover with Oakland goodbye.

 

The plan is to bring him in and out of the game for certain situations, maybe some wildcat, who knows. They have supposedly designed different packages just for him. He is not supposed to take over the game at any point. I will be happy to see him in there and have a guy that can run away from that Denver pass rush. Palmer standing back there like the statue that he is, with that Denver pass rush attacking that Raider O-line does not make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside that is for damn sure.
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#45
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:30:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

Good points. But doubtful Pryor will see action if they game is in doubt. They've got 3 more games after this game to get him going. As you said, Run DMC is back... I see Palmer starting and staying in there as long as the game is close. If you see Pryor, then you may have well kissed your cover with Oakland goodbye.

 

People are really pounding the under in this game so far so you are going to have lots of company it looks like. It has been steadily bet down to 48 already. I still like it to hit 50 at least.
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Polar_Bear
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#46
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:32:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dubfire:


interesting, I'm sure you guys remember last season when the Raiders went into Houston and beat the Texans after Al Davis passed away.
Al will be at this game just like that day when they made that pick in the end zone to end the game
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#47
Posted: 12/4/2012 4:39:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thehuntman:

Heyward Bey was nothing more than a 3rd rounder as projected. I still have no friggin clue why they took him as high as they did. I also was reading they benched WR Moore half way through the Browns game due to lazy play so we will have to see where that goes. I like him and there is lots of potential with him.

I hear you with Palmer...The one that stands out to me was 1st and 10 at your own 38 down 35-32 to TB lots of momentum and over 2 minutes to play and he threw one of the worst balls I have even seen right to the Tampa defender. There wasn't a Raider receiver within 15 yards....Game over and with a win there your 4-5 with a fighting chance.

It's the Atlanta one to me. They were fresh off their bye, had been the better team all day, were in the lead with a few minutes left, had driven the length of the field running the ball right down their throat with Atlanta completely unable to stop a running play, the crowd sat silently in shock, they were in easy field goal range. And for a reason know only to the sub 100 IQ Carson Palmer, he dropped back and threw a horrible high risk lame duck pass to the sideline which the Atlanta defender easily stepped in front of and jogged 80 yards for a touchdown to take the lead.

That play was the end of their entire season but yes that "thing" against Tampa to absolutely no one was just as dumbfounding.
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#48
Posted: 12/4/2012 5:12:29 PM
http://blog.sfgate.com/raiders/2012/12/04/dennis-allens-father-passes-away/

I was gambling on motivation of the mans father being ill but now their coach's father has passed away. May he rest in peace, 66 is too soon.

For anyone that wants to bother, if you read paragraph 3 of the article it flat out tells you that the Raiders coaching staff was already scouting and game planning for this matchup with Denver last week, before they had even played the Browns. That should tell you how they are approaching this game. The injured players along with the plan to play Pryor were all put on hold so that 100% effort and game planning could be put into this Broncos game. Now we will see if my bunch of wonderful misfits can do anything about it and do their coach proud.
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#49
Posted: 12/4/2012 5:16:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrankShades:

Everybody keeps saying McFadden will play but Rotowire has him as out. Which one is it? Does anybody have a credible source one way or the other here?
Here is a link for how he looked in practice today.

http://www.fantasysp.com/player/nfl/Darren_McFadden/2573787/raiders-darren-mcfadden-looks-good-in-practice

The man will play. He would have played Sunday had this game been played then
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#50
Posted: 12/4/2012 7:23:42 PM
BOL


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