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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: People that thinks there's no fixing in sports should stop gambling
gofor67 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#51
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:42:38 AM
Being a sports bettor for over 25 years I've seen about all that you can possibly imagine in the NFL. Here is my point I would like to make. The lines come out almost a week before the game. Players, coaches,owners, officials, bettors all know the opening lines. Now as a team going to practice monday morning you are looking at the odds that are set for you for the week. Motivation, maybe, if you are KC and Denver is coming to town as was yesterday. KC looking at the line at -9 1/2 and saying to themselves that we are better than that? Now if this was a playoff game would the score be the same? I don't think so. I have always argued the point that lines should be released the morning of the game. The less time people have to contemplate the game means the less time there is to manipulate the game. Could you imagine if they released the lines on the NBA a week ahead. Holy smokes people would make a killing. So the more time you have to think about a NFL game means the more time there is to manipulate the outcome of the game. Just my 2 cents worth from someone who has been at this for 25 years.
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#52
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:46:42 AM
the subject of this thread made me . you're an idiot if you bet on games knowing it's fixed.

the over of GB/NYG was the right play unfortunately it didn't cash. mopinkie says the right play only cashes about 70% of the time. just like in poker, pocket aces can still lose to pocket deuces approx 20% of the time. or are those hands fixed?
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#53
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:53:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gofor67:

Being a sports bettor for over 25 years I've seen about all that you can possibly imagine in the NFL. Here is my point I would like to make. The lines come out almost a week before the game. Players, coaches,owners, officials, bettors all know the opening lines. Now as a team going to practice monday morning you are looking at the odds that are set for you for the week. Motivation, maybe, if you are KC and Denver is coming to town as was yesterday. KC looking at the line at -9 1/2 and saying to themselves that we are better than that? Now if this was a playoff game would the score be the same? I don't think so. I have always argued the point that lines should be released the morning of the game. The less time people have to contemplate the game means the less time there is to manipulate the game. Could you imagine if they released the lines on the NBA a week ahead. Holy smokes people would make a killing. So the more time you have to think about a NFL game means the more time there is to manipulate the outcome of the game. Just my 2 cents worth from someone who has been at this for 25 years.


this is an excellent point

also , keep in mind, dont u think nbc loves how this game played out?  if u werent a bettor and a casual observer or fan , u would likely tune out after gbay went down meekly on their first drive of the 2nd half down 3 touchdowns.  but a bettor is very much interested all the way till the bitter end.  oh how painful for over bettors seeing graham harrell in there on the last drive hand the ball off over and over. 
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#54
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:55:32 AM

clubtnt

so you are saying that you win 70% of the time? Can you prove it? If you can then I will tail you from now on

 

Just kidding you will never win a cent in your life

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#55
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:55:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gofor67:

Being a sports bettor for over 25 years I've seen about all that you can possibly imagine in the NFL. Here is my point I would like to make. The lines come out almost a week before the game. Players, coaches,owners, officials, bettors all know the opening lines. Now as a team going to practice monday morning you are looking at the odds that are set for you for the week. Motivation, maybe, if you are KC and Denver is coming to town as was yesterday. KC looking at the line at -9 1/2 and saying to themselves that we are better than that? Now if this was a playoff game would the score be the same? I don't think so. I have always argued the point that lines should be released the morning of the game. The less time people have to contemplate the game means the less time there is to manipulate the game. Could you imagine if they released the lines on the NBA a week ahead. Holy smokes people would make a killing. So the more time you have to think about a NFL game means the more time there is to manipulate the outcome of the game. Just my 2 cents worth from someone who has been at this for 25 years.


manipulated, no. motivated, yes. a team like the chiefs that sees they're double-digit dogs at home might be more motivated, and the broncos might be less motivated expecting an easy victory.

if games are fixed how far and deep does it go? why would multi-millionaire coaches and players be involved in fixes? why would multi-billionaire owners be involved in fixes? and if they are which casinos would take their action because they sure aren't betting $10K? if the casinos are behind the fixes, think of the blackmail liability that the coaches/players are subject to.
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#56
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:57:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by casinoroyal:

clubtnt

so you are saying that you win 70% of the time? Can you prove it? If you can then I will tail you from now on

 

Just kidding you will never win a cent in your life



my did not understand my point bud: you can be on the right side of a bet and only cash ~70% of the time.
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#57
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:58:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

Yep, im the idiot. . . .


Thats good CalifDreamin, Admitting what an idiot you are is the first step in trying to fix it, unfortunately for you.


















































YOU CANT FIX STUPID
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#58
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:01:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:



manipulated, no. motivated, yes. a team like the chiefs that sees they're double-digit dogs at home might be more motivated, and the broncos might be less motivated expecting an easy victory.

if games are fixed how far and deep does it go? why would multi-millionaire coaches and players be involved in fixes? why would multi-billionaire owners be involved in fixes? and if they are which casinos would take their action because they sure aren't betting $10K? if the casinos are behind the fixes, think of the blackmail liability that the coaches/players are subject to.


what blackmail liability?  you think some senate investigation commitee will question a coach and offensive coordinator on why they run a draw play up the middle on 3rd and 10 when they are losing and running out of time
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#59
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:02:40 PM
im sure pau gasol is really worried that someone will question why he commited a foul down 10 with 10 seconds to play
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#60
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:04:18 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by clubtnt:

the subject of this thread made me . you're an idiot if you bet on games knowing it's fixed.

the over of GB/NYG was the right play unfortunately it didn't cash. mopinkie says the right play only cashes about 70% of the time. just like in poker, pocket aces can still lose to pocket deuces approx 20% of the time. or are those hands fixed?

No you're not!!  Then you just bet against what you think is fixed.  It is still a gamble.  Which is what the whole thing is is gambling.  Look at it however you want.  Bet against a team or bet against what you think vegas will fix.  Still gambling!!!

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#61
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:04:41 PM
its not just about the direct financial ramifcations, its also to make the product as INTERESTING as possible to as many people concerned
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#62
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:09:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jredmond:

No you're not!!  Then you just bet against what you think is fixed.  It is still a gamble.  Which is what the whole thing is is gambling.  Look at it however you want.  Bet against a team or bet against what you think vegas will fix.  Still gambling!!!



so instead of betting on statistical, situational, and emotional edges we should bet on fixed edges, not knowing which way the fix is?
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#63
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:09:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by diondimucci:

its not just about the direct financial ramifcations, its also to make the product as INTERESTING as possible to as many people concerned

 

So explain to me how the hell are they going to make the Phi Car game interesting for the viewers to watch tonight. Monday night shitfest, but I'll bet you the officials have you sitting in your seat right to the very end.

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#64
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:12:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diondimucci:

its not just about the direct financial ramifcations, its also to make the product as INTERESTING as possible to as many people concerned


the 38-10 drubbing that the packers took was very INTERESTING!
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#65
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:16:08 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by clubtnt:



so instead of betting on statistical, situational, and emotional edges we should bet on fixed edges, not knowing which way the fix is?

However you want to look at it.  Bet statistically if that is your thinking of gambling. 

Bet against a vegas fix it that is your thinking. 

Either way it up to the person betting.  Who are you to tell someone else that their thought is wrong.  It is up to each individual to think the way they want.  That's my point.  Each way of thinking is a gamble to the individual.

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#66
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:17:06 PM
i had six people at work make comments about last nights  game they were split on the side.but all had the over.The nfl has been cleaaned up since goodell has taken over but the last 3 weeks i have seen things that coaches are doing that is not the norm.last night the giants could have kicked a fg late to puch it over.Points scored is a tie breaker.The nfc is tight and i tcould come down to 5 or 6 teams fight for a wild card spot or home field. The atlanta was antoher funny game,if you wathced the last 3 minute of the 1st half and the end of the game, both coaches played funny games with the clock mgmt.Losing is one thing if both teams  give it there best.1 other note there is a rumor that the dept of justice is looking into corruption in college and pro football and is building a case at this time.The word is they have 14 people that have givin information to this matter. that is all i  know
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#67
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:19:38 PM
Would everyone agree that the majority of sports betters lose? 
Therefore if everyone bet the opposite the majority would win.

my point. Sports betting is a multi billion dollar business. its mostly psychology used on all of us.
What we see on ESPN, what we read in the papers. what we hear on the radio. its all psychology. 

your bet bet is to go against the grain and you'll end up winning more than you lose.

Example: 2 weeks ago on MNF all you heard in america was that the steelers would wreck the chiefs..espn making jokes during monday night countdown, fantasy shows saying Mike wallace would get 60 points...blah blah blah... getting into everyones head..

PSYCHOLOGY!!! 
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#68
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:24:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:



the 38-10 drubbing that the packers took was very INTERESTING!


it was if u were playing the total
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#69
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:27:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diondimucci:



it was if u were playing the total


so the thousands of fans in the stadium and millions at home were playing the total? ".... as INTERESTING as possible to as many people concerned"
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#70
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:31:27 PM
or just do the sumple math and if you went by both teams points scored and points against you got 47 for a total. Yeah that was fixed give me a break do the math
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#71
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:33:28 PM
You do have to agree that the internet changes the landscape of gambling a lot in the past 15-20years. Before the internet age I used to make a killing on MNF and now since then I lost my edge being a bookie, that's why I guit being a bookie. I am not MAKING MONEY. "the authority" I will call them that from now on, can clean house most of the time. When they have their final figue coming in by kick off, they will know how this game is going to end up, sometimes they don't even have to fix games, but remember on prime time games when bets are lopsided, watchout!
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#72
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:36:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:



so the thousands of fans in the stadium and millions at home were playing the total? ".... as INTERESTING as possible to as many people concerned"


comeon man, its like pulling teeth here, im not saying the whole game, im talking about the endgame.

the outcome is obviously not in doubt, and the only people that would be truly interested till the bitter end would be those that were playing the total.. 

if there were not fishy things happening during the endgame, then it wouldnt be as interesting for the viewer to follow.  why is this so hard to comprehend.

oh this is brutal, like talking to animals
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#73
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:36:27 PM
casinoroyal , thaw , liontri    
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#74
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:42:44 PM

Another tip that I like to share is bet against the team who just won big on prime time. So I would take the Skins next MNF. People will remember how good the Giants were and blindly bet on them and bets will be one sided thus forcing "the fix"

Times and times again you see a team blow out another team by 30-40 points and the next week that team can't even put up 10 points.

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#75
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:54:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by liontri:

People are not talking about those blow-out games. Talking about those close games. Actual incident, team "A" was up 4 and favoured by 3. With 6 seconds left, they were getting ready to punt. They had 2 options, either punt the ball or the punter could run around and fall down to end the game. They called a timeout and when play resume, the punter took the snap from the 50 yard line and ran all the way back to his endzone to give the other team a safety and ended the game. So, they ended up winning by 2 when favoured by 3. Ask yourself, why the hell did he did that for? Just ask yourself that.
WTF GAME WAS THAT I REALLY WANNA KNOW
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