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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Family Day Thursday
choiOi send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:23:10 AM
Leaning Det +3 and ML
A 9-1 team chalking only -3 to a lions team who for as long as I can remember have always garbage the bed on family day. This is a trap game for the texans. The backers who foolishly took the lions last week vs the packers at +3 will not be so eager to place another bet on them this week, nor will the backers who took the packers at -3. Lions stock are low...buy now!


Leaning boys -3 and ML
I will prolly hammer the boys at ML. I can see the negative news on the boys already. Ugly win vs brownies bla bla. One record that is screaming in my ears...romo is 21-3 in Nov lifetime YO! Best in nfl history. Romo is no person in nov. 


Leaning patriots -6
The 2nd winniest QB in the month of nov goes to Brady. I know jets looked competitive last matchup but if you go back and watch how the pats dominated the jets 1st half...it looked very similar to what the 9ers did to the bears 1st half tonight. We'll see a complete game from the pats on defense and I am asking pats backers to see the Forrest, not the trees YO!!




Comments are welcome....BOL and hope good fortune brings early Xmas $$$ for all backers YO!!!

I am degenerate and I will be on all 3 games. 

I will add the final bets as I see the number and juices that has the best ROI for me YO...,gobble gobble. 



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#2
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:37:38 AM
lions scare, dont have much to play for now, texns still playing for 1 spot, fishy line tho. love the pats
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#3
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:56:55 AM
Pat under look good
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#4
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:00:25 AM
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choiOi send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:11:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigkaptain:

lions scare, dont have much to play for now, texns still playing for 1 spot, fishy line tho. love the pats


I just don't think the Texans can match the Lions intensity on Thurs. this is the 1st family day game for the Texans. Foster been carrying a big load for the Texans without tate. Their passing game is #17 and everything goes thru foster. Lions stop foster and that texans offense will stall. Easier said then done but the loud dome will disrupt the Texans offensive rhythm. Texans secondary still gives up big passing plays. Joseph who is their best corner left in OT w/a hamstring injury. He is not 100%. Who will cover megaton? Kareem Jackson is 5 10' 


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#6
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:12:45 AM
Saigon and mob .....happy family day to you and urs. 
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#7
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:34:59 AM
Boys are 6-0 vs skins L6 on thank$giving day.
Boys are 5-1 L6 on thank$giving. 


RG3.......



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#8
Posted: 11/20/2012 3:04:03 AM
Teams with high octane offenses loves their TE to give them all aresenals at their disposals. Take a look at the Saints when billy graham came back. Losing gronk is a huge blow to the pats offense. 

Jets on the other hand are looking outside in. They get to play at MetLife and are not out of the playoffs picture. With 6 games left...they are 2 games behind Pitt who will be starting a 3rd string QB, and colts for 1 of the 2 wildcard spot. Jets hold the tiebreaker over colts after beating them in wk6. 

Jets rally from 4-6 in Ryan's 1st yr as HC in 09 to make playoffs. The fact that Ryan have kept his mouth shut going into this matchup and pats losing their best offensive weapons have made jets a great home dog value double YO YO at +6 and maybe ML. 

Would not surprise me if all 3 home teams win Thursday. 








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#9
Posted: 11/20/2012 3:18:05 AM
How huge is gronk impact to pats offense????

Brady has thrown 21tds....of those 21...10 went to Gronk. 

Brady threw 2tds vs jets in wk7 .....those 2tds were caught by Gronk. 
Not rocket scientist to see that gronk accounted for about half of the pats passing tds inside red zone. 

So why are the books chalking -6 to a division rival Jets who only lost by 3pts in their last matchup??? ESP after pats destroyed the public colts? 

Correct play should be the +6 in this spot with further review.



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#10
Posted: 11/20/2012 3:51:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by choiOi:



I just don't think the Texans can match the Lions intensity on Thurs. this is the 1st family day game for the Texans. Foster been carrying a big load for the Texans without tate. Their passing game is #17 and everything goes thru foster. Lions stop foster and that texans offense will stall. Easier said then done but the loud dome will disrupt the Texans offensive rhythm. Texans secondary still gives up big passing plays. Joseph who is their best corner left in OT w/a hamstring injury. He is not 100%. Who will cover megaton? Kareem Jackson is 5 10' 



 That is a hilarious and insightful comment all in one. I'm leaning lions for that reason alone but lets not forget that the pass rush for texans is deadly while lions have no running game. I also think its a big assumption to say that foster can be stopped. The only thing lions have going for them is that texans played a hard fought game @ jags and now have to travel to detroit in only a couple of days. Seems like a no play to be honest.

I think your initial Pats lean is correct though. While Gronk was a big part of their offense, the patriots still have 2 TE's in Shiancoe and Hernandez. And lets not forget Tom Brady makes this offense not Gronk. Brady will be able to pick apart the Jets defense. The only concern is wether or not the 2 backup TEs are capable of learning the fast pace offense of the pats with such a short amount of time (playcalling, hand signals, keyphrases). Lastly the Pats defense is very underrated. They are finally gelling and dominated Colts on sunday who IMO are better than Sanchez and co.

Pats -6 EXTRA LARGE 

and have a happy thanksgiving.
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#11
Posted: 11/20/2012 4:00:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CertifiedWizard:


 That is a hilarious and insightful comment all in one. I'm leaning lions for that reason alone but lets not forget that the pass rush for texans is deadly while lions have no running game. I also think its a big assumption to say that foster can be stopped. The only thing lions have going for them is that texans played a hard fought game @ jags and now have to travel to detroit in only a couple of days. Seems like a no play to be honest.

I think your initial Pats lean is correct though. While Gronk was a big part of their offense, the patriots still have 2 TE's in Shiancoe and Hernandez. And lets not forget Tom Brady makes this offense not Gronk. Brady will be able to pick apart the Jets defense. The only concern is wether or not the 2 backup TEs are capable of learning the fast pace offense of the pats with such a short amount of time (playcalling, hand signals, keyphrases). Lastly the Pats defense is very underrated. They are finally gelling and dominated Colts on sunday who IMO are better than Sanchez and co.

Pats -6 EXTRA LARGE 

and have a happy thanksgiving.


I am a texans season tix holder since Dom capers days...I am more then qualified speak bout the texans. 

Please go extra large on pats... I will be going 2x extra on jets and will sprinkle some drew brees $$ on jets ML too
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#12
Posted: 11/20/2012 4:03:54 AM
Talk me off these.....



Lions +3 and ML
Dallas -3 and ML
Jets +6 and ML 


It's going to be a thankful day YO!!!!



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#13
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:32:14 AM
3G and t Brady r good fir thanksgiving
Posted using a mobile device.
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#14
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:35:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by choiOi:

How huge is gronk impact to pats offense????

Brady has thrown 21tds....of those 21...10 went to Gronk. 

Brady threw 2tds vs jets in wk7 .....those 2tds were caught by Gronk. 
Not rocket scientist to see that gronk accounted for about half of the pats passing tds inside red zone. 

So why are the books chalking -6 to a division rival Jets who only lost by 3pts in their last matchup??? ESP after pats destroyed the public colts? 

Correct play should be the +6 in this spot with further review.





Aaron Hernandez is back
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horje04
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#15
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:39:45 AM

I actually have all your picks....just the opposite.

Big Gronk is out for the Pats and Jets are making their push +6.5...it will be closer than that.

Houston is on a roll and will win by 11.

Dallas sucks,,,,last week they looked unorganized and will win by 3......therefore the .5 burns all Dallas backers....

I did like your write up...please keep it up.

 

 

 

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#16
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:45:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by choiOi:

Boys are 6-0 vs skins L6 on thank$giving day.
Boys are 5-1 L6 on thank$giving. 


RG3.......



That's a solid trend bro

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#17
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:20:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigJoe83:



Aaron Hernandez is back

Gronk and Hernandez are two different beast. It's like if I asked you, would you like smart water (gronk) or tab water (Hernandez). Besides, Hernandez haven't played sine 10/21  Bol tho....
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#18
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:26:22 AM
Arowana....Bol to you. Brady is top 3 QB without a doubt. He lost his best weapon, something got to give. 



Canada cup....big D to the house


Horje04....picking winners ain't easy yo, Bol. Don't forget to be thankful on family day yo. 





Locked in......


Jets +6
Sanchez had 300+ passing yds last matchup. This guy loves passing against that pats def. 



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#19
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:51:19 AM
Good luck Brother
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#20
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:54:29 AM
Honestly I could see a 44-13 game for a Texans win.  Not sure how anyone could bet our Lions right now.  They are struggling offensively to say the least.  Stafford is not nearly as accurate as last year.  Houston being a little undervalued becaused of last week in my eyes.  But our secondary will be no problem for Shaub and company.  Look for O. Daniels and Andre to have a field day and Foster to pop in a few short ones.  We wont be able to run.  Titus Young is causing problems within the locker room and will be inactive.  If Houston can double cover Calvin we are in for a long day.  Houston LARGE for me.
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#21
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:32:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by choiOi:

Talk me off these.....



Lions +3 and ML
Dallas -3 and ML
Jets +6 and ML 


It's going to be a thankful day YO!!!!



Dallas is 0-4 vs spread as home fav.

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#22
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:37:38 AM
Texans got caught peaking ahead in their last game...Lions get mauled...
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#23
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:05:03 PM
What is funny is how everyone thinks they are so much smarter than the odds makers. Ohhh I bet you didnt know the Texans were traveling on a short week. Ohhh I bet you didnt know the Texans played 5 quarters last game. Ohhh I bet you didnt know this is a trap game for the Texans who are not playing an in conference game. Ohhh I bet you didnt know Joseph is injured with a hammy.
Blah Blah Blah the odds makers know everything you know times 100.  

You might win with the Lions but lets not get carried away betting on a team that is a complete mess. I will take my chances with an organized winning team. 

Don't get carried away with the two fantasy guys Stafford and Megatron. 

Besides my play of the week is the under. Aint no way Kubiak wants to do anything but play some defense then run, run, and run somemore. And work the clock like crazy.
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#24
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:20:43 PM
well said..... but from a texan fan 
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#25
Posted: 11/20/2012 2:24:16 PM
patriots giving anything under a touchdown is golden to me. the jets??? come on, the jets????  i tell ya, im takin tom terrific on turkey day. jets gotta prove it to me.
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