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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: You are a crazy degenerate....
bigcash
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#26
Posted: 11/19/2012 9:42:01 PM
i'll b a degenerate wit some jingo in my pocket son.
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#27
Posted: 11/19/2012 11:45:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you bet this game tonight at 3.5 either way.

QB situation is totally unpredictable.  Variance is huge on a game like this.

That is all.

GL



LOL.

Just goes to show you are a pseudo-sharp. What if I can get 3.5 +200 either way?
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#28
Posted: 11/19/2012 11:58:02 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:



LOL.

Just goes to show you are a pseudo-sharp. What if I can get 3.5 +200 either way?

Yeah right.

Pretty much went exactly as I said.

And as far as your comment - who is getting 3.5 +200 on either side of this at gametime?  In what world?

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#29
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:02:06 AM

I predicted one thing:  high variance.

And a 3.5 point spread ended 32-7.

I guess second level betting concepts go way over the heads of most here.  No surprise.

But the good news is there are champions league games this week, and the bank of vanzack will be wide open.  The Obama money has rolled in and there are some crazy wrong way lines for the next 2 days.

Hope you all won.  Cant wait to bet against SF next week when they will be vastly overpriced.

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#30
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:03:57 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

and btw bud  i NEVER forget a slight   never

Who are you?

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#31
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:35:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:


And as far as your comment - who is getting 3.5 +200 on either side of this at gametime?  In what world?




LOL that was not the point. Obviously I was exaggerating. You just don't get it.

In your opening post, you are talking without regards to the price. In your world, it is "Hey we just got to pick winners! Who cares what the price is as long as we win?"
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#32
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:37:17 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:



LOL that was not the point. Obviously I was exaggerating. You just don't get it.

In your opening post, you are talking without regards to the price. In your world, it is "Hey we just got to pick winners! Who cares what the price is as long as we win?"

Yeah.  I just dont get it.  Its me that doesnt get it.

OK.

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#33
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:43:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you bet this game tonight at 3.5 either way.

QB situation is totally unpredictable.  Variance is huge on a game like this.

That is all.

GL



So, because you couldn't cap it, nobody else was able to?
I saw plenty of guys with great write ups that predicted exactly why this would turn out how it did.

You are still young yet, but don't discount others ability, it makes you look ignorant.

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#34
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:52:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

I predicted one thing:  high variance.

And a 3.5 point spread ended 32-7.

I guess second level betting concepts go way over the heads of most here.  No surprise.

But the good news is there are champions league games this week, and the bank of vanzack will be wide open.  The Obama money has rolled in and there are some crazy wrong way lines for the next 2 days.

Hope you all won.  Cant wait to bet against SF next week when they will be vastly overpriced.



LOL what an epic post. It's official, you are a faux-sharp.

So a 3.5 point spread that ended 32-7 = high variance? What an absurd statement. This is a classic example of results-oriented thinking.

So how do you decide what lines are wrong? By watching the games? By gut feeling?

Do you even have a mathematical model? Do you even know the concept of beating the closing line? How many of your plays even beat the closing line?

Are you going to post your champions league plays? Oh wait, you are afraid you will jinx them if you do so. 
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#35
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:57:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you bet this game tonight at 3.5 either way.

QB situation is totally unpredictable.  Variance is huge on a game like this.

That is all.

GL

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#36
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:00:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:



LOL what an epic post. It's official, you are a faux-sharp.

So a 3.5 point spread that ended 32-7 = high variance? What an absurd statement. This is a classic example of results-oriented thinking.

So how do you decide what lines are wrong? By watching the games? By gut feeling?

Do you even have a mathematical model? Do you even know the concept of beating the closing line? How many of your plays even beat the closing line?

Are you going to post your champions league plays? Oh wait, you are afraid you will jinx them if you do so. 

A faux-sharp.  I like that.

 

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#37
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:00:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Yeah.  I just dont get it.  Its me that doesnt get it.

OK.


Why don't you address this?

"In your opening post, you are talking without regards to the price. In your world, it is "Hey we just got to pick winners! Who cares what the price is as long as we win?"
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#38
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:04:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

A faux-sharp.  I like that.

 



Haha that's what I thought. I knew you will have no answers to the questions posted.
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#39
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:05:32 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:



LOL what an epic post. It's official, you are a faux-sharp.

So a 3.5 point spread that ended 32-7 = high variance? What an absurd statement. This is a classic example of results-oriented thinking.

So how do you decide what lines are wrong? By watching the games? By gut feeling?

Do you even have a mathematical model? Do you even know the concept of beating the closing line? How many of your plays even beat the closing line?

Are you going to post your champions league plays? Oh wait, you are afraid you will jinx them if you do so. 

I knew the concept of beating the closing line for the last 10 years here.  Here is one example from this thread in 2010 (post #8).

The only way to define sharp is someone who consistently beats the line (square would be the opposite).

So if sharps are on one side, by definition they have already beaten the line because the line has moved. So now in order to side with those sharps, you have to take a bad line, thus NOT beating the line, making you a square. So you are on the same side on the same game, but you are the square and they are the sharp because of line.

The only determinant in long term sports gambling winning or losing is beating the line. It is the only thing that books like Pinnacle use to profile players - they dont care if you win or lose - but they do care if you beat the line - because they know that someone who does that consistently will win consistently (a sharp).

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100915404&page=1

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#40
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:08:22 AM

Tell me Irish Tim, if I am such a fraud, what do you think I am?

Someone who has been on this site for 10 years, and someone who copies and pastes gambling theory?

Im curious.  Coming from a guy who creates an alias to track and troll me, if I am a faux-sharp, what is your theory?

What kind of faux sharp can write volumes about every gambling subject under the sun, for 10 years here? 

Lets hear the theory of an alias who is afraid to use their real username to stalk me.

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#41
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:10:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:


Why don't you address this?

"In your opening post, you are talking without regards to the price. In your world, it is "Hey we just got to pick winners! Who cares what the price is as long as we win?"

Because I have addressed it for 10 years over and over and over.

Here.  Start in this thread.  http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=89&sub=100991258

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#42
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:13:18 AM

Oh, and please add to my record - since you are my personal record keeper / stalker -

1-0 in elections, up 100 units.

Thanks

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#43
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:14:04 AM
So why do you talk with no regards to the price in your opening post? That's exactly what I was saying. If I can get 3.5 +140, are you telling me not to play it? I beat the closing line!
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#44
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:16:22 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:

So why do you talk with no regards to the price in your opening post? That's exactly what I was saying. If I can get 3.5 +140, are you telling me not to play it? I beat the closing line!

1.  Because I live in the real world.

2.  It is understood.

It you can get +3.5 _140 and cant figure out how to make money with that, you are beyond help.  Come on.  If you can go buy a new Honda Accord for 2k you should go do that too.

Jeesh.

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#45
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:18:47 AM

I will be glad to ahve this conversation with you as long as you use your real username.

Not an alias set up to stalk / troll me.

I take it as a compliment, but come on.  Be big about it.  Calling me out while hiding this way is lame.

Go do some research on my posts here for 10 years, and come back to me.  Repeating this stuff gets old.  And I dont owe you anything.

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#46
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:20:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

no doubt   you'd better have da bears damn you....


I had the 49ers
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#47
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:26:10 AM

Can you answer this Van?

Can anyone answer this question with pure stats?

Last night I took the Steelers. Had the option of +3 +105, or +3.5 -115. So, risk 100 for 105 first way, and risk 100 for 87 the 2nd way. I opted for the +3 +105, and of course I pushed.

My belief is that in the long run taking the +105 will be more profitable. To make up for the lost 87, I'd need to win 5 times with the same scenario(5x18=90, which makes up for the lost 87). So, 1/6 of the time(16.666%) a push instead of win would still be profitable for me in the long run, as the 5 wins would give me an extra $3. 

Does anyone have historical data for the outcomes on games where the closing line was between 2.5-3.5? How many of these games ended with the exact difference of 3?

Even if it's 25%(which seems high), taking the +105 would seem correct, as probability dictates that the team I wagered on would win half of the time, thus rendering only 12.5% of the time I would push instead of win.

If I was making a major, one time wager, then I'd definitely buy the extra half off the 3, But, grinding with a normal play, I think the +105 is the correct move.

Any help, backed by facts would be greatly appreciated.

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#48
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:38:12 AM
OP you think you are sharp for not betting this game?

This game had a clear and decisive winner.  Far from a no play. 

And beating the line isn't the only way to win games.  All that means is the public is betting the same side as you and your line is better.

If you beat the closing line with the Bears +7 you are not a sharp.
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#49
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:38:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Tell me Irish Tim, if I am such a fraud, what do you think I am?

Someone who has been on this site for 10 years, and someone who copies and pastes gambling theory?

Im curious.  Coming from a guy who creates an alias to track and troll me, if I am a faux-sharp, what is your theory?

What kind of faux sharp can write volumes about every gambling subject under the sun, for 10 years here? 

Lets hear the theory of an alias who is afraid to use their real username to stalk me.


You like to harp on the fact that you have been here 10 years as if the amount of time spend here somehow correlates to being an expert.

I don't know who you are. Only you know.  Heck, this Vanzack username could be a gimmick that you created for entertainment purposes for all I know. Just like the WWE and their 'fake' feuds and championships, you know what I mean?

One thing's for sure. You would be laughed out of the 2p2 forums and the think tank across the street with your gambling theories. Speaking of which, why don't I see you posting there? There are more sharps there than at covers. Why do you continue posting at covers and pandering to the squares?

I mean, what kind of professional bettor

1) believes in jinxes
2) watches and sweats the games
3) pays no attention to the price and juice
4) bets plays by gut feeling and going through previous game videos
5) no mathematical model
6) results oriented thinking
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#50
Posted: 11/20/2012 1:49:03 AM
All bettors are degenerates! The deck is always stacked against you! Every bet is a degenerate bet, a bet like this favors us bettors because Vegas doesn't have all the info. And don't tell me u have more info that Vegas, cuz you don't degenerate!
Posted using a mobile device.
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