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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Thursday Night Football Mia v Buf
ttplaya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ttplaya
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#1
Posted: 11/13/2012 6:57:10 PM
Look, I am a young sportsbetter trying to improve on my craft. This is partly a numbers game, partly a trends game, and partly knowing this great game of football better. There is way 2 much hating going on in this forum. 

So instead of just posting 10,000 different threads about the same game just with your own picks, why not make a thread were we can all discuss this game, trends and angles. all perspective should be considered and if I only listen to myself then my views can become obsolete. 

Current line:
Mia +1 (+105) v Buff -1 (-120) O/U 45.5

Initial thoughts are:
1.Miami is not as bad as their last home loss was. Yes, I got burned by them as the favorite but I have also cashed big on them this season as a road dog which is what they are this week. 

2. Buffalo is 27-16 ATS in their last 43 home games in November (vegasinsider). The cold seems to play to their advantage. Miami weather this week is in the 80s..Kickoff in Buffalo is projected in the mid 30s. 

3. Miami has solid trends as road dog (3-1), vs AFC East (5-1) and (8-2) following a SU loss.

I have put some time into my craft and I am hoping to find those who also do the same. Speak your mind!

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TRicj send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:09:09 PM
I've been thinking the same things! very well said ttplaya!

I think that the weather is going to play a big role in the game and hold miami back a little. They are capable of scoring big points though and after a loss like last week they are going to want to show that. 

With that being said I think that the bills will come out with a small win and cover but a lot of points will be scored so take the over!
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pigskinpicker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:24:44 PM
i dont see the weather being a factor. it will be kind of cold, in the 30s, but no wind or rain.  TR, you might want to check my thread on this same subject. there has been some good back and forth on this game, if you truly have an interest in making a play on it.
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kn0wn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 11/13/2012 10:47:30 PM
Yea I dont think the cold will be much of a factor....they will throw on a bunch of the free under armor clothes they get lol.  But I do think having C.J. Spiller will help Buffalo more than it could hurt them.  I keep thinking there has to be a reason he hasnt been a starter especially after his great performace when Jackson was hurt.  I havnt found any reason but maybe its because he cant handle the heavier workload and gets worn out to fast?  Im not sure and we will see on Thursday but I think Miami will get the win here, it might come down to a FG or they might win comfortably, but I do think they win.  GL
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BradyWearsUGGZ send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#5
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:12:39 PM
coaches often dont give smaller passing backs more touches due to higher injury risk.
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SCOTTBI send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:41:53 PM

I like

mia

over det

dall

over dall

kc

pit

good luck friends

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FadeThisXen send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:53:49 PM
That weather is going to be brutal, crisp, and foreign to that entire Miami Dolphins team.  Buffalo is very under-rated, given it's record.  They nearly won last week against the Patriots.  Miami just got it's behind kicked, where Buffalo played their hearts out and lost.  Slight advantage goes to the home team.  I believe both teams are going to return to the run for different reasons.  Buffalo because they excel at the run and they need to keep that crappy defense off the field as much as possible.  Reggie Bush returns for Miami and Ryan Tannehill has been playing very poorly.  I'm still thinking about it, but slight lean Buffalo and the under based on the above.
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#8
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:00:21 AM
I'd call this game for Buffalo by a field goal. 20-17 or 23-20.  If I make a play on this game, would go 1 unit on Buffalo and 1 unit on the under.  I think both teams are going to make turnovers, which will impact field position, but not the score.
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#9
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:32:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

That weather is going to be brutal, crisp, and foreign to that entire Miami Dolphins team.  Buffalo is very under-rated, given it's record.  They nearly won last week against the Patriots.  Miami just got it's behind kicked, where Buffalo played their hearts out and lost.  Slight advantage goes to the home team.  I believe both teams are going to return to the run for different reasons.  Buffalo because they excel at the run and they need to keep that crappy defense off the field as much as possible.  Reggie Bush returns for Miami and Ryan Tannehill has been playing very poorly.  I'm still thinking about it, but slight lean Buffalo and the under based on the above.


i couldnt disagree more about the weather Fade. Temps during the game will be in the mid 30s, no wind or rain. hardly brutal. yes crisp, good football weather. so, if you are basing any of your thinking on the weather....dont.  i agree the under has a good chance at coming in, because buffalo will indeed try to control the clock with the run to protect that defense, and miami will run bush trying to exploit that horrible run defense of the bills....i see lots of running plays with the clock ticking, and miami will run it better, getting the win...in my opinion.
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#10
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:25:47 AM
Pretty much called this game perfect.  4-0 Since Monday.
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