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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: early opinions on miami at buffalo
bandit25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:09:54 AM

Since 2008 season Buffalo is 4-23 SU when playing a divisional game....

 

 

 

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#52
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:55:24 AM
guys, thanks for all the great ideas.... michfan.....the cold wont be a problem....no wind or rain, the 2 biggest factors and the temp will be in the 30s, and as big lick said, miami won there lat year with a 35 degree reading.  bandit, that buffalo 4-23 number you posted for nov makes me think my lean to miami will be the play, along with other considerations...
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#53
Posted: 11/14/2012 5:44:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CertifiedWizard:

Taking the Bills this week. I can see Fitzpatrick cutting up the defense quite easily. Miami's embarrassing lost last week should be good for Fitzpatrick's confidence who almost went score for score with NE. The weather will get to Tannehill making him a non factor. The only chance miami has of winning lies in Reggie Bush. If he is able to expose Bill's run D, then miami has a chance. 

Bills 24 - Dolphins 17

1: Jake Locker was 9-21 for 122 yards. Not sure if that would give Fitz a lot of confidence.

2: Based on?

3: Miami has won games where Reggie Bush had (19 carries for 48 yards) (14 carries for 60 yards) (12 carries for 17 yards) I don't know how you could try to argue Miami NEEDS Reggie Bush has a big game


Buffalo may win this game, but it will not be because any of the things you mentioned above. 
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#54
Posted: 11/14/2012 5:46:54 PM
the fish  there the better  team......they should be 1pt  fav.
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#55
Posted: 11/14/2012 5:50:47 PM
The game has gone to +3 at my book (-115) and then quickly to (-120)

I said to myself last week the only good thing losing 37-3 is you will get a great line the next week. +3 is very solid in this spot imo
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#56
Posted: 11/14/2012 6:01:51 PM
the line is  bills -3 at Bovada
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#57
Posted: 11/14/2012 6:26:07 PM
I know i'll be getting this game at +2 to +3 by tomorrow night, but now it's around +1.5 for the fish. I really like them in this spot. They are the better team, the better D, and still have a chance to salvage this season. Look for Tannehill to pick apart the porous Bills D while Spiller gets bottled up by the Dolphins D. Someone posted 24-20. That looks pretty good to me too. Maybe 23-20, 23-17 Dolphins. They should win this game outright as the Dolphins still have one of the best red zone defenses in the game (7th, behind Bal, Det, Chi, Hou, Sea, and Phi). Not bad company to be in.
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#58
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:11:11 PM
Buffalo 23-Dolphins 10

CJ Spiller runs wild on this over-rated Miami run defense. Tannehill throws at least one pick. Miami is just not that good, and benefited from a soft schedule. Public is taking those points due to trends. Buffalo looked very good last week in NE. Miami looked lost and they got trampled, so what has changed? Tennessee sucks behind and they blew out the Fins. Chris Johnson ripped them, with mediocre line play. Buffalo and the under is the play here.
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#59
Posted: 11/14/2012 7:13:10 PM
i think i have decided.... i am taking miami + whatever pts are available 3 units and the under for 1 unit. i will also put miami in 2 or 3  three team, 10 pt teasers. lot of options for 10 pt teasers this week. Atl and NE come to mind...also maybe the saints and / or dallas
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#60
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:54:49 AM
I am really glad MOST of the community has decided to consolidate threads on this game. 

As I have done more research I have a few more trends for consideration. 

Last 3 years Dolphins are:
5-2 ATS as a divisional dog 
16-7-1 as a road dog
8-3-1 as a road dog following a ATS loss. 
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#61
Posted: 11/15/2012 8:50:34 AM
FINS  
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#62
Posted: 11/15/2012 9:07:35 AM
i mean fred jax being out might b a good thing, cj getting all the touches could create oppurtunities, and we saw what the other cj did against that stout run d last week, i think the dolphins are coming back to earth a little, remember it's still a rookie qb and while the bills arent anything special i lean buffalo -1 as a small play at home
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#63
Posted: 11/15/2012 9:25:20 AM
Miami +3 is a solid play here. Buffalo is dead last in the league in defending against the run, giving up an average up 5.5 per carry. Miami is off an embarrassing home lost to Tennessee.
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#64
Posted: 11/15/2012 9:54:12 AM
Laroja...thats part of my thinking too.....miami and some on the under.. thanks all for the contributions. good work, regardless which side you favor...
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#65
Posted: 11/15/2012 10:14:54 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:

ttplaya, you gave a lot of ATS and trend type info.....good, i like that.....i want to look at matchups a second, and get your opinion and anyone elses is welcomed...

rushing..... buffalo is dead last in the nfl stopping the run, while this is the strength of the 'fins defense. on the flip side, buffalo has the stellar cj spiller to attack on the ground, while miami counters with the capable reggie bush.  i give the edge to miami in the running game.
passing..... neither of these teams will be confused with the aerial attacks of the nfl elite passing games.. both these teams throw for about 220 ypg. stevie johnson will be the best wide out on the field, and while very good,, not an elite receiver.  the rest of the receiving corps and tight ends are not outstanding for either team. the bills allow about 250 ypg through the air while the 'fins allow about 280, so a slight edge to the bills.
neither team has a big edge on special teams...
so, i think the matchups slightly favor miami mainly due to their ability to stop the run, which is the strength of the bills offense.
earth....you know the 'fins.... how you see this?


miami's run stats look good only because there pass defense is weak!!!  teams throw the ball more often against miami which makes there run defense look pretty good!!! buffalo has played a much tougher schedule and only now does it start to soften up!!!  buffalo is a desperate team and probably has to win out to make the playoffs, that may seem funny and unachievable but the Bill's  last 7 games are all winnable!!! don't sleep on this Bill's team, they are the better team!!!!  the Bill's are my pick!!!   GOOD LUCK

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#66
Posted: 11/15/2012 10:27:09 AM
thx orange, i understand when a team sucks against the passteams throw it more, making their run defense appear to be better.also, when a team is good against the pass, look, and often that team is at the bottom of the league stopping the run... which is the bills. thanks for your input.
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#67
Posted: 11/15/2012 3:10:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigLick08:

Cold weather is not an issue. Last year on 12/18/11 Miami played at Buffalo 35F and beat them 30-23. Miami has a better QB. C.J. Spiller was the feature back during that game and he ran for 91 yards with 1 TD; he also had 9 rec, 76 yards, and 1 TD.

Ryan Fitz was the QB last year as well and he threw for 316 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 int. with QB rating of 72.7.

Reggie Bush ran for 203 yards, pretty sure Reggie is looking forward to this game to show off his legs. I like the trend that Bills F'up again while Miami bounce back. Mia 27 - Bills 24.... awww ***k that just messed up my under teaser lol

Have these teams changed much? Marshall isn't there but he had 3 receptions, 84 yds, and 1 TD. I think one of the Miami receiver can emulate that stats on Thursday night.

Cold weather will be an issue tonight. You can't compare this game to the game you mentioned at all. Last years game was meaningless in week 15 or 16 tonight the bills can actually play spoiler as Miami is a dark horse playoff team 

And the phins have a different head coach, offensive coordinator and starting qb. Arguably the 3 most important positions in relation to a point spread (Revis). 

Miamis definitely a solid team but its a terrible spot coming off a blowout to go on the road vs a division rival in cold, shitty climate compared to what they are used to. Won't be surprised when buffalo wins 28-10
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#68
Posted: 11/15/2012 3:48:12 PM
two things...michfan players on miamis roster are from all over the country...dan carpenter the kicker played at montana as well as jimmy wilson a CB and the roster is dotted with players from cold climates..these arent sissies..
last thing....i am down on miami and the under. i wont be near a computer until sometime saturday....so if the dolphins dont come through for me and you dont see me in here tonight ..... you know why...im out. see you guys saturday or sunday morning. good luck to all.
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#69
Posted: 11/15/2012 4:03:39 PM
You practice, play, live in a tropical climate and come into the cold, there is an effect, mainly psychological. Even if they come from Wisconsin or Michigan, they practice, play, live, breathe Miami climate. Miami chokes tonight.
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#70
Posted: 11/15/2012 4:07:48 PM
well fade... i hope you're wrong...but only for my money's sake!!
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#71
Posted: 11/15/2012 8:29:17 PM
Young team trying to make a statement tonight, same mindset they had when they went into play the Jets.

Turnovers will be everything tonight. The Bills will need 2+ turnover differential to win. If Miami protects the ball they can win this game handily.

Please protect the ball Tannehill, I have a lot of confidence in him. 30-17 Miami. 
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#72
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:24:59 AM
Called this play 4-0 since I started calling plays on covers.
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#73
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:30:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

Called this play 4-0 since I started calling plays on covers.
Start posting plays with YTD then sir instead of sounding like a complete jerkoff?
[Quote: Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ]  Initial angles do point towards the Bills, Miamis had a very soft schedule (which makes me think they were never as good as some made them out) and still sits at the record they're at. Think I might have to flip flop  and go with the Bills. The Bills have beat up on mediocre teams and the Dolphins are, at best, a mediocre team. Bills with home advantage also. Johnson proved damn well this D can be run on. Spiller is an elite RB.

Bills (Pk) also!
and this kids, is why you listen to the first thing you tell yourself (not this forum) and dont switch. damn you fins
 

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#74
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:31:33 AM
and apparently you cant double quote, gg covers.
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#75
Posted: 11/16/2012 2:16:36 PM
Yeah, that original post was spot on.  YTD, I'm like 23-25, lol.  First six weeks were horrible for me.  I think I got a good feel now for this season though.
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