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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: early opinions on miami at buffalo
ttplaya send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:00:23 PM
Current line:
Mia +1 (+105) v Buff -1 (-120) O/U 45.5

Initial thoughts are:
1.Miami is not as bad as their last home loss was. Yes, I got burned by them as the favorite but I have also cashed big on them this season as a road dog which is what they are this week. 

2. Buffalo is 27-16 ATS in their last 43 home games in November (vegasinsider). The cold seems to play to their advantage. Miami weather this week is in the 80s..Kickoff in Buffalo is projected in the mid 30s. 

3. Miami has solid trends as road dog (3-1), vs AFC East (5-1) and (8-2) following a SU loss.

I have put some time into my craft and I am hoping to find those who also do the same. Speak your mind!
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#27
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:10:46 PM
Simply put, Miami plays better on the road than at home. I don't think it is anything other than simply feeling pressure at home.

I just checked, and the last time Miami came out flat on the road was week 6 last year on MNF vs the Jets. This was also the first game Matt Moore ever started for the Dolphins (coming after Hennes injury) So did they come out flat or were they doomed throwing a guy to the wolves vs the Jets D. Other than this it was week 17 of the 2010-2011 season against the Pats in a big loss. My point being, Miami very rarely comes out flat on the road 
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#28
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:43:00 PM
ttplaya, you gave a lot of ATS and trend type info.....good, i like that.....i want to look at matchups a second, and get your opinion and anyone elses is welcomed...

rushing..... buffalo is dead last in the nfl stopping the run, while this is the strength of the 'fins defense. on the flip side, buffalo has the stellar cj spiller to attack on the ground, while miami counters with the capable reggie bush.  i give the edge to miami in the running game.
passing..... neither of these teams will be confused with the aerial attacks of the nfl elite passing games.. both these teams throw for about 220 ypg. stevie johnson will be the best wide out on the field, and while very good,, not an elite receiver.  the rest of the receiving corps and tight ends are not outstanding for either team. the bills allow about 250 ypg through the air while the 'fins allow about 280, so a slight edge to the bills.
neither team has a big edge on special teams...
so, i think the matchups slightly favor miami mainly due to their ability to stop the run, which is the strength of the bills offense.
earth....you know the 'fins.... how you see this?


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#29
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:54:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:

ttplaya, you gave a lot of ATS and trend type info.....good, i like that.....i want to look at matchups a second, and get your opinion and anyone elses is welcomed...

rushing..... buffalo is dead last in the nfl stopping the run, while this is the strength of the 'fins defense. on the flip side, buffalo has the stellar cj spiller to attack on the ground, while miami counters with the capable reggie bush.  i give the edge to miami in the running game.
passing..... neither of these teams will be confused with the aerial attacks of the nfl elite passing games.. both these teams throw for about 220 ypg. stevie johnson will be the best wide out on the field, and while very good,, not an elite receiver.  the rest of the receiving corps and tight ends are not outstanding for either team. the bills allow about 250 ypg through the air while the 'fins allow about 280, so a slight edge to the bills.
neither team has a big edge on special teams...
so, i think the matchups slightly favor miami mainly due to their ability to stop the run, which is the strength of the bills offense.
earth....you know the 'fins.... how you see this?



Other than Sean Smith, Miami's secondary is bad. The rest of their defense is good enough to mask that when they are not facing a great QB. Fitzpatrick really does not worry me and I love the fact he turns it over.

Spiller will have a decent day. The best part of Miami's run D is their D-tackles. Their ends are better pass rushers than run stoppers. Fitz will have to win this game through the air. I like the chance that he turns it over, and if Miami wins the turnover battle this game could be a blowout, however turnovers are hit or miss 
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#30
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:56:59 PM
thanks buddy
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#31
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:57:58 PM
 I also didn't know Buffalo was that bad at run defense. Miami doesn't have a great back, but they do have 3 good/decent backs.

Lamar Miller looks like the best back they have, I can't wait until they start to feed him more, and that might be this week.
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#32
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:58:15 PM
What about the total guys? 

45.5 
Thursday Night Football (3-5 O/U) 

Miami- Under
5-0 last 5 games. 
4-0 last 4 Thursday games and verse AFC. 
25-9 last 34 road games. 

Buffalo- Over
5-0 last 5 home games
6-0-1 last 7 vs AFC East. 


Buffalo has some pretty hard Over trends to ignore. Playing on Thursday favors Miami trends. 

My plays

I have bet 1 unit on Buffalo (-120). On thursday I hope the line has moved enough for me to catch a middle and bet ~3 units on Mia. I think you go with the total of the team you favor to win. My thursday night parlay is gonna be Mia and the Under. If Miami is going to win they are going to have to stop Spiller and I also do not see them winning a shootout. 

I have seen it listed at 46 at some places and hope that my book jumps up to that number as well by gametime. 

BOL all!

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#33
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:01:41 PM
since there is conflicting trends on the total.... i might tease miami with the under, since i see a little more value in the under. and since i like dallas in a tease, i may make a 2 teamer and a 3 teamer...
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#34
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:04:03 PM
ttplaya, as long as you get the total at 46, dont wait, it might come down. at 46, its over the key total of 45... good luck to ya buddy.
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#35
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:22:38 PM
never ever ever ever ever take an over in a Miami game. imo

solid defense, mediocre offense will tend to play a lot of unders.
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#36
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:27:21 PM
Like Miami...bounce back game, should be highly motivated..

** Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo.
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#37
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:28:03 PM
i agree earth. i have observed miami games closely over the last few years and they tend to be  exactly that. solid defense and an offense, mainly cause they havent had a QB, that leaves a lot to be desired...
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#38
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:36:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:

i agree earth. i have observed miami games closely over the last few years and they tend to be  exactly that. solid defense and an offense, mainly cause they havent had a QB, that leaves a lot to be desired...

Tannehill is the guy. I have zero doubt in my mind.

A lot of people will/do jump down my throat, but I have never said that statement since Marino. It is CRAZY to me that a guy with 5 TDs and 9 int can drop back, and I am not worried in the slightest that he is going to throw a pick.

Please watch the poise of Tannehill when he drops back in the pocket, realize he is a rookie and tell me after the game if you are not extremely impressed 
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#39
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:48:49 PM
earth, lets not forget, 3 of those 9 INTs...1/3 of them, came on the road in tannehill's debut in houston against what we know to be an elite defense.... tannehill on the road doesnt bother me.
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#40
Posted: 11/13/2012 10:29:52 PM
if your a trend bettor it heavily favors miami. bills 1-9 in div. games and bills play poorly 2-8 in november. if your a stats guy it slightly favors buffalo due to miamis lackluster offense while having a soft schedule, buffalos schedule definitely hasnt been soft. buffalo though has a dead last ranked run defense and miamis coming off a bye which gives another edge to miami. games like these are tough to assess.
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#41
Posted: 11/13/2012 10:48:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

if your a trend bettor it heavily favors miami. bills 1-9 in div. games and bills play poorly 2-8 in november. if your a stats guy it slightly favors buffalo due to miamis lackluster offense while having a soft schedule, buffalos schedule definitely hasnt been soft. buffalo though has a dead last ranked run defense and
miamis coming off a bye which gives another edge to miami. games like these are tough to assess.

no they aren't.
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#42
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:02:16 PM
lol oops. looking at to many games right now
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#43
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:10:28 PM
sean smiths a stud to be honest my concern here is the weather it should be cold as darn at night in buffalo and this will be miamis first real test in a harsh climate
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#44
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:17:20 PM
Leaning Buff as well...Miami soft schedule and Spiller can handle the load. Bills keep it close and win by FG 27-24
Posted using a mobile device.
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#45
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:19:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

sean smiths a stud to be honest my concern here is the weather it should be cold as darn at night in buffalo and this will be miamis first real test in a harsh climate


I really think this is the key to any Buffalo argument. That temperature change is something to sneeze at. 
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#46
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:48:09 PM

mia

over det

dall

over dall

kc

pit

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#47
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:10:17 AM
Spiller is more explosive than Fred Jackson.  That weather is going to slap the Fins in the face the moment they step off the plane. Playoffs are a long way off and don't even factor into motivation or fight for professionals until week 15-17.  Miami is slightly better, all around, but if Buffalo sticks with it's run game and dominates time of possession, it's going to go Bills.  Even factoring in turnovers, I'm calling this Bills over Fins, 20-17.
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#48
Posted: 11/14/2012 2:39:11 AM
Taking the Bills this week. I can see Fitzpatrick cutting up the defense quite easily. Miami's embarrassing lost last week should be good for Fitzpatrick's confidence who almost went score for score with NE. The weather will get to Tannehill making him a non factor. The only chance miami has of winning lies in Reggie Bush. If he is able to expose Bill's run D, then miami has a chance. 

Bills 24 - Dolphins 17
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#49
Posted: 11/14/2012 5:14:13 AM
Cold weather is not an issue. Last year on 12/18/11 Miami played at Buffalo 35F and beat them 30-23. Miami has a better QB. C.J. Spiller was the feature back during that game and he ran for 91 yards with 1 TD; he also had 9 rec, 76 yards, and 1 TD.

Ryan Fitz was the QB last year as well and he threw for 316 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 int. with QB rating of 72.7.

Reggie Bush ran for 203 yards, pretty sure Reggie is looking forward to this game to show off his legs. I like the trend that Bills F'up again while Miami bounce back. Mia 27 - Bills 24.... awww ***k that just messed up my under teaser lol

Have these teams changed much? Marshall isn't there but he had 3 receptions, 84 yds, and 1 TD. I think one of the Miami receiver can emulate that stats on Thursday night.
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#50
Posted: 11/14/2012 5:19:37 AM
But last year game was on Sunday. Thursday night games generally has lower scores due to shorter rest, so maybe the scores will be Miami 24 - Bills 20.
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