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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: early opinions on miami at buffalo
pigskinpicker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:18:43 AM
what you guys think....buffalo -1 right now.
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#2
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:36:55 AM
Both teams are terrible and you don't know who will show up - I'd lean Miami just for the fact they were embarrassed by a team worse than themselves on Sunday.  Buffalo kept within striking distance of NE and I think this might be a little let down for them.
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#3
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:40:10 AM
Buffalo has played pretty good in their last two losses, at Hou and NE.  Fred Jackson is likely out.  Miami has had some good results on the road.  Tough one to call.  I think Miami might get the W here but who knows.
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#4
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:41:40 AM
If you take the Bills, consider a rehab.


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#5
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:42:20 AM
thx trancer....thursday will be a busy day for me and i have to bet it early if i play it, so im trying to get some ideas to think about....thinking about teasing miami to 7 and buyin the hook to make it 7 1/2.....would probably tease them with dallas.
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#6
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:43:10 AM
thx thorpe and kk
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#7
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:45:44 AM
Miami ML. They are the better team. Bills dont care anymore.
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#8
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:46:14 AM
Don't let buffalo playing well against NE last week be a factor to pick them.  Pats last rank pass defense would make any QB look good. 


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#9
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:47:45 AM
The Dolphins have had a ridiculously easy schedule so far.  Buffalo has an incredibly bad defence.  I would project both teams around 24 points each, which makes Over 45.0 a decent wager.  Picking a side is a coin toss.
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#10
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:48:30 AM
thx mr oakland and cali..... being retired i have a lot of time to think!! ideas appreciated.
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#11
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:49:58 AM
good pt topo....i dont mind playing totals if there is a good reason, and it may be safer than the side....
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#12
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:54:32 AM
when you watch buffalo games, who stands out to you? the defense? NO.  the offense? C.J. Spiller. He is the offense and Miami has one of the top ranked run defenses. I dont know how one can go with the Bills .. makes me happy though the public is already raping the bills. good sign for miami.
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#13
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:56:05 AM
if fred jackson was healthy id prob say bills, but all the weight will be on spiller's shoulders.....and miami seems to come through and win these division games.....still can't believe they got blown out against tennesee, but i think they pull this one out
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#14
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:57:13 AM
thx brady and CP
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#15
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:26:13 AM

There is a really strong trend for both of these teams the week following they play each other...I can't seem to locate it in my files...any one else aware of it? 

By the way - lean Miami here - love the underdog on Thursday night...with a good run D

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#16
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:54:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClownPicks:

if fred jackson was healthy id prob say bills, but all the weight will be on spiller's shoulders.....and miami seems to come through and win these division games.....still can't believe they got blown out against tennesee, but i think they pull this one out


Spiller is way better then Fred Jackson
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#17
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:03:59 PM
thanks all....anyone else with any ideas?...
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#18
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:41:38 PM
This is a hard call. I'm leaning more towards Miami. Buffalo played hard against the NE patriots. Coming off a short week, this could wear them down. Miami played horrible against Tennessee. Miami gave up by the second half conserving their energy. Both teams are bad and I will just go with my gut. Miami + under.

 
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#19
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:39:23 PM

I would lean Bills. I'm alway big on SOS and Miami really hasn't played anyone. That blow out against the titans didn't really tell me much but they definitly gave up in that one. Bills are a blue collar team that has been in almost every game. Notice the only time the bills can't put up points is when they play good defenses. I would not say the dolphins have a very good D...I would take the over but since it's primetime I can't do it.

 

Bills -1

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#20
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:02:13 PM
 Initial angles do point towards the Bills, Miamis had a very soft schedule (which makes me think they were never as good as some made them out) and still sits at the record they're at. Think I might have to flip flop  and go with the Bills. The Bills have beat up on mediocre teams and the Dolphins are, at best, a mediocre team. Bills with home advantage also. Johnson proved damn well this D can be run on. Spiller is an elite RB.

Bills (Pk) also!
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#21
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:15:16 PM
I thought I would add my 2 cents..  The play here is Miami and lean towards the under.  Miami is 4-5 and still has an outside shot of making the playoffs.  Buffalo and the NYJ are done for the season.  Yes, Buffalo has a good passing game and Miami's passing defense is horrible, but Buffalo's total defense is horrendous.  Coach Philbin benched his players last week for screwing up.  They will be focused this week and should come out with a victory.  They have to win to cover since the line is pretty much a pickem.  MIA 24-20.
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#22
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:53:26 PM
guys ( and maybe gals) thanks for all your input. i have an interest in playing this game, since the line is such that i just have to pick the winner. i wont be home thursday night and i want to play this game. i still have some time to decide, so any more ideas are welcomed, and looking back over these comments, there are several good pts on either side.. thanks..
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#23
Posted: 11/13/2012 6:16:50 PM
If you want any info on the Fins, I'm your guy.

1 - The game Miami played against the Jets 2 weeks ago was the biggest game for Miami since 2009, they put all of their focus and then some on the Jets. They played well in Indy last week, but I think a lot of that was because it was Tannehill vs Luck and he wanted to prove himself. Noone on the team played well other than Tannehill.

2 - Last week they came out simply flat. Thats how I expected them to come out against Indy, it was just a week delay. Combine that with turnovers and you got your 37-3 final. Funny thing is Tennessee didn't even play that well. Jake Locker was 9-21 for roughly 150 yards. Johnson had a pretty big day, but the 37 pts was due to one pick 6, and 2 turnovers deep in own territory.

3 - MIAMI WILL NOT COME OUT FLAT VS BUFFALO. Does that mean they win this game? No, but I promise you they will not come out flat. Miami played the same type game week 1 in Houston. They were up 3-0 late in the 2nd quarter and turned it over 4 straight times and ended up being down 24-3. (losing 30-10) The next week against Oakland, they came out focused and playing great. This is a young team who has been competitive in every single game (minus 2nd half of week 1, and last week.) They are also a young team with a short memory and will not be dwelling on last week.

This game will come down to turnovers. If the Bills do not force more than 1 turnover they will not win the game. Tannehill went 5 straight games without a pick until last week, so he really doesn't turn the ball over as much as you think. This is a bigger game for Miami, they have a better team, and the Bills are simply known for finding ways to lose. 27-17, Fins 
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#24
Posted: 11/13/2012 6:22:18 PM
The line is also very telling. Miami lost 37-3, and Buffalo almost won in New England. Yet the line is -1.5 I was hoping linesmakers would bite and I could grab Miami +3.5 for a huge play, but they are smarter than that
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#25
Posted: 11/13/2012 6:51:23 PM
earth, historically miami is awful the week following the jets, and i made indy a top of mine for that reason. these AFC east games have a lot of emotion with them, and i think buffalo has a similar trend the week following new england...  i am leaning to miami ML right now and a Miami / Dallas 6 pt teaser.... thoughts of yours and thanks for the info, good stuff.
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