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[NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

topperchris

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#126

Posted: 11/23/2012 4:15:14 PM

great job...detroit was the correct play...dallas wins a couple then always loses as a favorite

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pcz

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#127

Posted: 11/23/2012 4:36:56 PM

We had a nice week so far AFN! Have you had a chance to run the numbers for this week for all matches?

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AFNfootballnerd

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#128

Posted: 11/23/2012 10:34:23 PM

have a lot of low line spreads but not gonna touch bad team match ups...match ups I like this week

Ravens -1 @ chargers

Niners -1 @ saints

falcons-1 @ bucs

packers+3 @ giants

Gonna run these games numbers as I love these low line spreads

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#129

Posted: 11/24/2012 3:19:10 AM

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3

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NFL_Sharp

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#130

Posted: 11/24/2012 3:36:17 AM

QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3

My system's projections for these four:

Bal 24 SD 20

SF 33 NO 30

Atl 17 TB 31

GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB). Best of luck this week.

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salsaboy27

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#131

Posted: 11/24/2012 4:10:05 AM

I like the SF and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.

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AFNfootballnerd

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#132

Posted: 11/24/2012 4:11:53 AM

QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

My system's projections for these four:

Bal 24 SD 20

SF 33 NO 30

Atl 17 TB 31

GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB). Best of luck this week.

Nice! As we both have similar projections...greenbay will be a tough game but I'm going with the consistency numbers...I rarely bet giants but like to fade them in favorite spots...appreciate sharing your system numbers

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Ibchris81

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#133

Posted: 11/24/2012 6:33:39 AM

This thread is a definently one to look at each Sunday. AFN and NFL are both great cappers and working together we will finish the season strong. Best of luck to all and lets kill the bookies this weekend.....

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Gigimike99

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#134

Posted: 11/24/2012 7:57:53 AM

Nice job guys! Been on a roll! I appreciate your hard work.

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middleman820

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#135

Posted: 11/24/2012 8:46:25 AM

QUOTE

Originally Posted by salsaboy27:

I like the SF and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.

UNLESS YOU HAVE ANAL DATA TO SHARE YOUR ADVICE IS USELESS! WE ONLY USE DATA AND DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR FOOTBALL OPINIONS!!

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cardifkill

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#136

Posted: 11/24/2012 12:58:42 PM

AFN

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pcz

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#137

Posted: 11/24/2012 7:38:28 PM

Lets give it a shot. I like the first 3 plays. Went 4-0 and 2-0 on MNF with your offense vs. defense calculations and my other systems that I'm following.

Confident plays:
Bucs
SF
Balt

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Pho_Hawk

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#138

Posted: 11/24/2012 8:33:34 PM

Thanks for posting and your time. GL tomorrow

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Crashdavis565

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#139

Posted: 11/24/2012 9:56:19 PM

You can run your numbers all you want but you should also look at motivation.

Ravens are in a terrible spot playing a sandwich game between two games with Pitt.

They are the better team but that team does not always win on Sunday.

Just a thought

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millerman2008

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#140

Posted: 11/25/2012 1:43:42 AM

AFNfootballnerd Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.

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AFNfootballnerd

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#141

Posted: 11/25/2012 2:14:01 AM

QUOTE Originally Posted by millerman2008:

AFNfootballnerd Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.

Have Denver ranked 3rd in rankings vs KC ranked dead last at 32...

Offense- Denver 18% KC -30%

Defense- Denver -18% KC 11%

Line sitting at +10 as a double digit spread i personally would not touch this game....there are better games on the board to bet on...but given those numbers and a gun to my head ill take Denver ML....GL with your wager if u decide to play...

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white12hino

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#142

Posted: 11/25/2012 2:24:17 AM

Hey just saw your thread and looks interesting. BOL sunday!!!!

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theilleffect

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#143

Posted: 11/25/2012 2:37:56 AM

As I have mentioned earlier not being a huge fan of systems, but I have to hand it to you sir...this is GREAT!!! Keep up the awesome work AFN and I wish you the best on the remainder of the season. Was curious on what numbers you get when you run the CIN/OAK game...was wanting to see what the system projects for the inconsistency of OAK. If you have the time, do you mind running it please??? Thanks in advance.

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thedirtybirds17

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