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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share
topperchris send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
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#126
Posted: 11/23/2012 4:15:14 PM
great job...detroit was the correct play...dallas wins a couple then always loses as a favorite
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#127
Posted: 11/23/2012 4:36:56 PM
We had a nice week so far AFN! Have you had a chance to run the numbers for this week for all matches?
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#128
Posted: 11/23/2012 10:34:23 PM
have a lot of low line spreads but not gonna touch bad team match ups...match ups I like this week

Ravens -1 @ chargers

Niners -1 @ saints

falcons-1 @ bucs

packers+3 @ giants

Gonna run these games numbers as I love these low line spreads
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#129
Posted: 11/24/2012 3:19:10 AM
Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3



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#130
Posted: 11/24/2012 3:36:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3




My system's projections for these four:
Bal 24 SD 20
SF 33 NO 30
Atl 17 TB 31
GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB).  Best of luck this week.
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#131
Posted: 11/24/2012 4:10:05 AM
I like the SF  and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.
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#132
Posted: 11/24/2012 4:11:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:


My system's projections for these four:
Bal 24 SD 20
SF 33 NO 30
Atl 17 TB 31
GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB).  Best of luck this week.
 

Nice! As we both have similar projections...greenbay will be a tough game but I'm going with the consistency numbers...I rarely bet giants but like to fade them in favorite spots...appreciate sharing your system numbers 
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#133
Posted: 11/24/2012 6:33:39 AM
This thread is a definently one to look at each Sunday. AFN and NFL are both great cappers and working together we will finish the season strong. Best of luck to all and lets kill the bookies this weekend.....
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#134
Posted: 11/24/2012 7:57:53 AM
Nice job guys!  Been on a roll!  I appreciate your hard work.  
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#135
Posted: 11/24/2012 8:46:25 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by salsaboy27:

I like the SF  and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.

 

 UNLESS YOU HAVE ANAL DATA TO SHARE YOUR ADVICE IS USELESS! WE ONLY USE DATA AND DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR FOOTBALL OPINIONS!!  

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cardifkill
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#136
Posted: 11/24/2012 12:58:42 PM
AFN


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#137
Posted: 11/24/2012 7:38:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3





Lets give it a shot. I like the first 3 plays. Went 4-0 and 2-0 on MNF with your offense vs. defense calculations and my other systems that I'm following.

Confident plays:
Bucs
SF
Balt


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#138
Posted: 11/24/2012 8:33:34 PM
Thanks for posting and your time. GL tomorrow
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Crashdavis565
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#139
Posted: 11/24/2012 9:56:19 PM
You can run your numbers all you want but you should also look at motivation.
Ravens are in a terrible spot playing a sandwich game between two games with Pitt.
They are the better team but that team does not always win on Sunday.
Just a thought
GL
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#140
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:43:42 AM
AFNfootballnerd  Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.
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#141
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:14:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by millerman2008:

AFNfootballnerd  Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.


Have Denver ranked 3rd in rankings vs KC ranked dead last at 32...
 
Offense- Denver 18% KC -30%

Defense- Denver -18% KC 11%

Line sitting at +10 as a double digit spread i personally would not touch this game....there are better games on the board to bet on...but given those numbers and a gun to my head ill take Denver ML....GL with your wager if u decide to play...


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#142
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:24:17 AM
Hey just saw your thread and looks interesting. BOL sunday!!!! 
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#143
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:37:56 AM
As I have mentioned earlier not being a huge fan of systems, but I have to hand it to you sir...this is GREAT!!! Keep up the awesome work AFN and I wish you the best on the remainder of the season. Was curious on what numbers you get when you run the CIN/OAK game...was wanting to see what the system projects for the inconsistency of OAK. If you have the time, do you mind running it please??? Thanks in advance. 
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#144
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:48:05 AM
Great work so far!
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#145
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:49:06 AM

Nice. Both of us got all 3 games on Thanksgiving Day.

My lines for the main games you are talking about:

233234
ATL 25.7 -3.0
TB 22.7 48.4

237238
BAL 22.8 -4.5
SD 18.3 41.1

243244
GB 25.1 -2.4
NYG 22.7 47.8

I also have Car over Phil

245246
CAR 20.0
PHI 15.8

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#146
Posted: 11/25/2012 4:56:09 AM
Cincy Oakland game...concistency numbers...Cincy ranked 30 and Oakland ranked 24 and Oakland is dead last in special teams...GL
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#147
Posted: 11/25/2012 5:00:13 AM
Did you stay away from that game cause the lines were too high for your liking?
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#148
Posted: 11/25/2012 6:09:48 AM
Yes double digit spread...and two inconsistent teams playing and Carson Palmer old team...way to much to consider in capping
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nfl_brosuf
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#149
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:21:54 AM
don't mind if I tail ya for money...

I also shared your picks with my friends as well..

lets get this money funny...
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#150
Posted: 11/25/2012 10:03:13 AM
Just started.... Luv ur system.  What is your take on Seattle game and Indy game? 
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