Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

Forum: NFL Betting Page 13 of 28 «  11 12 13 14 15   »
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share
RDTTKA12 PM RDTTKA12
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quote#301
Posted: 12/10/2012 3:53:14 PM
AFN,

Hell of job this weekend bud, you cleaned house!  Perhaps we could get a little MNF preview with some numbers for the HOU @ NE game tonight?
My lean is Pats -3 from my local
aKaGeeMan PM aKaGeeMan
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quote#302
Posted: 12/10/2012 4:49:15 PM
Gotta love you morons posting plays in someone else's thread, losers
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AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#303
Posted: 12/10/2012 6:49:39 PM
Houston 18% NE 24% overall efficiency matchup

Houston 7% NE 18% offense

Houston -18% NE 1% defense

Houston behind in offense but a huge differential in defense numbers...

Pick Houston +5.5 and Houston ML
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RxMang17 PM RxMang17
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quote#304
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:13:53 AM
Firstly, AFN, I have been very impressed with this system!

However, did last night's game expose a flaw? Specifically, my question is: how exactly does the system quantify recent play vs play over the whole season? I know you've mentioned that it weights recent play heavier than historical play, but what defines "recent?" I have noticed (more from a fantasy football perspective) that HOU D/ST has been bad since Week 11, whereas NE D/ST has been looking pretty good since Week 11. Essentially, I was surprised by the defensive differential (i.e., -18% vs average) the system computed. 

Also, does it take into account when players (especially those who are directly involved in many play outcomes) are out for the game? I know your program records every play, but does it record the players involved affecting the outcomes? Quantifying injury-induced effects on expected performance would be BAWSE!

Thanks again for your work! Have a good one. 
JAl239 PM JAl239
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quote#305
Posted: 12/11/2012 12:08:43 PM
You ogininally posted NE-3. Awesome job on the other picks.
CanadaCup PM CanadaCup
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quote#306
Posted: 12/11/2012 12:14:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:




13-6 overall for low spreads 8 and under....

13-9 with those 3 double digit spread games (Pitt, arizona, raiders)

So its official no more double digit spreads as its not profitable in the long run... but 13-6  so far on 8 and under spreads not bad +700 units so far

jerry18 PM jerry18
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quote#307
Posted: 12/11/2012 2:57:42 PM
nice job AFN! I have one small request :) could you please post your plays a little bit earlier, beacuse i am from Europe and time difference is quite big :) if not no problem :)
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#308
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:08:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JAl239:

You ogininally posted NE-3. Awesome job on the other picks.

Yes I did...have a confession...and absolutely will not do it again! I had better numbers for NE but my bias got in the way and I altered the numbers to make it look better for Texans because I wanted Brady and patriots to lose...buddy of mine got into it about patriots will win the Super Bowl and I took it personal and tried to fade him  will not let bias do that again apoligizes to whoever tailed MNF 
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#309
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:12:17 PM
So should be 14-6 if sticking by program but 13-8 on moronic bias decision...need to just stick to the PROGRAM! 
suitcase_tommy PM suitcase_tommy
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quote#310
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:46:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

So should be 14-6 if sticking by program but 13-8 on moronic bias decision...need to just stick to the PROGRAM! 

Awesome job AFNfootballnerd!!! Keep it up and thanks a ton for posting! Please let us know when you start posting your NBA plays. Thanks again!

 

AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#311
Posted: 12/11/2012 9:27:43 PM
NBA Bulls ML
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johnpolino04 PM johnpolino04
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quote#312
Posted: 12/11/2012 10:23:30 PM
No money ball pall Tom bradley is not approved of system specially if you playing on MA home.... good luck next time
johnpolino04 PM johnpolino04
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quote#313
Posted: 12/11/2012 11:32:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

NBA Bulls ML

u didnt recommend the bulls common hamilton is out thats make then even lower to scored no roses and hamilton now kirk hinrich just recover for hes injury not on hes 100% 
byonusho PM byonusho
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quote#314
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:13:43 AM

We all have our formulas and I took my Clippers to the bank.
Also, I don't use any bias or listen to others. Everyone should do their own homework and make their own money, but definitely be open to other great ideas to make us all stronger and more profitable.

509-LAC510-CHI
94.2 -3.5
90.7 185.0

 

 

 

henrytran PM henrytran
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quote#315
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:17:39 AM
what is your pick for week 15?? Can you please post it before thursday if you can. thanks alot. Btw very good system.. Nice job 
harps2084 PM harps2084
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quote#316
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:38:55 AM
good information
iBETnWIN PM iBETnWIN
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quote#317
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:47:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


Yes I did...have a confession...and absolutely will not do it again! I had better numbers for NE but my bias got in the way and I altered the numbers to make it look better for Texans because I wanted Brady and patriots to lose...buddy of mine got into it about patriots will win the Super Bowl and I took it personal and tried to fade him  will not let bias do that again apoligizes to whoever tailed MNF 


Haha, that was solid! Appreciate the honesty *salute*

"Maybe I could change the formula and alter the occurrences of real life in my favor with skewed variables!"

Imagine it worked?! The power...THE POWER!!!

Keep up the good work. Very enticing stuff...
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#318
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:02:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iBETnWIN:



Haha, that was solid! Appreciate the honesty *salute*

"Maybe I could change the formula and alter the occurrences of real life in my favor with skewed variables!"

Imagine it worked?! The power...THE POWER!!!

  Haha yea....and if u noticed i put Texans ML which i never do....I looked back on my post and can see the bias as i typed Texans ML what an idiot

Keep up the good work. Very enticing stuff...
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#319
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:19:44 AM
Ok sticking to the program would have went 5-0 last week if i stayed away from Double digit (arizona) spread and my bias for patriots to win the superbowl

STICK TO THE PROGRAM!

Week 15 picks...

Cincy -4
Denver -2.5
Giants +2
Dallas +2
Carolina +3

1 Unit parlay Cincy Denver Carolina Giants


austintx11 PM austintx11
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quote#320
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:23:12 AM
13-6 overall for low spreads 8 and under....

13-9 with those 3 double digit spread games (Pitt, arizona, raiders)

So its official no more double digit spreads as its not profitable in the long run..

so a 22 game sample size is the long run LMAO dumbfucks at covers
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#321
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:48:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by austintx11:

13-6 overall for low spreads 8 and under....

13-9 with those 3 double digit spread games (Pitt, arizona, raiders)

So its official no more double digit spreads as its not profitable in the long run..

so a 22 game sample size is the long run LMAO dumbfucks at covers


not sure what your referring to but 22 games has been a decent run so far?
iBETnWIN PM iBETnWIN
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quote#322
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:54:44 AM
Wild. Take it easy. Why are you getting upset for? There's no reason for that. This guy Jonah Hill is pretty much including the forums in a beta-testing of his program.

The majority finds it at least interesting. No one is holding a gun to anyone's head and forcing them to wager on what the program says. It's just another factor you should take into consideration.

It's, frankly, too early to base any conclusions off the validity of the program. He's simply providing data that he has. Eventually, they'll be sufficient power to make a decision on what it could be used for.

Stay positive! It's good for the bank roll...
AFNfootballnerd PM AFNfootballnerd
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quote#323
Posted: 12/12/2012 4:07:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iBETnWIN:

Wild. Take it easy. Why are you getting upset for? There's no reason for that. This guy Jonah Hill is pretty much including the forums in a beta-testing of his program.

The majority finds it at least interesting. No one is holding a gun to anyone's head and forcing them to wager on what the program says. It's just another factor you should take into consideration.

It's, frankly, too early to base any conclusions off the validity of the program. He's simply providing data that he has. Eventually, they'll be sufficient power to make a decision on what it could be used for.

Stay positive! It's good for the bank roll...


Not trying to be a tout or covering up my loses as touts do..Its been confusing with my human element and double digit spread picks...i guess its the degenerate and me being human with my bias pick on Texans....I am  testing this program to see if it is profitble with money management and boy have i learned alot so far.....The program is 14-6 if ive strictly stuck with the program...

If the program continues to be profitable till the end of the season then this program has promise....
EricAnderson PM EricAnderson
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quote#324
Posted: 12/12/2012 4:29:52 AM
Patriots are winning the Super Bowl bro. As long as its not giants vs patriots again. Giants = patriots kryptonite
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BigUnit PM BigUnit
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quote#325
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:30:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


Yes I did...have a confession...and absolutely will not do it again! I had better numbers for NE but my bias got in the way and I altered the numbers to make it look better for Texans because I wanted Brady and patriots to lose...buddy of mine got into it about patriots will win the Super Bowl and I took it personal and tried to fade him  will not let bias do that again apoligizes to whoever tailed MNF 

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